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The similarity system

  • #10,461
  • Oct 17, 2014 7:28pm Oct 17, 2014 7:28pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Well, it obviously managed to confuse me as well, so no surprise. To repeat, h_left is the h value on the left hand side and h_right is the h value on the right hand side of the transient zone. The idea is to give a more general values of probability vs time. If one keeps h_left = h_right, then one is left with the conventional situation for h. k
duh ok thanks. I managed to confuse again haha silly me
I want more brain power!
  • #10,462
  • Oct 17, 2014 7:48pm Oct 17, 2014 7:48pm
Quoting MetaCoder
{quote} The cycle-identifer indicator from Page 1 of the Thread looks great. Seems to me that if you buy on the MajorCycleBuy signals and sell on the MajorCycleSell signals, further confirming that the most recent different-timeframe stochastic mismatch occurred above your buys or below your sells, you will have very high probability trades. For trade closure, you could use the next MajorSellCycle signal to close your buys, and vice versa. IF, of course, the indicator draws these signals in a timely fashion. I mean, it doesn't ONLY look good in...
Use the iCustom function... the CI indicator is essentially a TZ indicator or fractal indicator plus a momentum aspect, depending on the settings. I can save you the time from coding it straight, though - no settings are profitable on their own - use it for similarity though and it can have some teeth, just not as many as stoch/BB, since you can see more and isolate more pieces from that platform due to the settings... think slope of mid-BB over the stoch, what is happening to price when stoch is at 0/100, when you can/can't see the upper or lower BB lines over stoch, or when the mid-BB line is above 80/below 20 on the stoch... just to get you started...
  • #10,463
  • Oct 17, 2014 8:20pm Oct 17, 2014 8:20pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Hmmmm, looking at this again after a while, there appears to be an error in my calculation and statement. Sorry. Let me go step by step and explain both the initial statement and the error I've made. In your first post the clearance probability of the end-bar (fractal) zone within four bars away from it is 60.48%. That means that within fours bars from the zone's inception, historically in 60.48% of cases the price went through the zone, i.e. a transient zone has become recurrent. In the situation after 16 hours, the probability...
Thank you very much k. I use your code, it is great - thanks. I try to modify it and i got this on image. I do not understand the calculation of problem bars & fully resolved bars. I got fully resolved bars (164) > problem bars (103). It is must be like that ? or is there something wrong ?
I use h_right smaller than h_left for getting fast conclusion on developing zone .... i think this is important.

Thanks
=jack
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-M30-TRZ-bugs-or-not.jpg Size: 55 KB
Similarity can change your life !
  • #10,464
  • Oct 17, 2014 9:52pm Oct 17, 2014 9:52pm
Quoting GU-Night
{quote} Hey kprsa, first I want to thank you for your contribution to this thread and your recurrence indicator. Secondly, I want to ask you what you find about the idea to add an alert when a possible problem bar becomes a true problem bar (I don’t know if that is possible) In the pictures below I’ll show why. Big thanks for your time and effort. Much appreciated. If you don’t like the idea, ignore it! GU {image} {image}
This is good idea GU-Night, thanks.

Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote} {quote} {quote} Well if anyone reads the stuff I write then the reason people get frustrated is because they fail module (B) as describe by me a few posts earlier. Forex is a complicated subject. KISS means reducing the complexity of the things we have to deal with but it does not mean that it becomes as simple as A B C. If one choose to interpret KISS as such then one is taking a big risk. I do think it important to attempt to make this very clear to all who intent on studying this business of TZs. I will do it by a simple play by play...
Great stuffs mate ....
  • #10,465
  • Oct 17, 2014 10:53pm Oct 17, 2014 10:53pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} Well you have nothing more to worry about then, cause I'm completely done with posting on this thread. Good luck with your trading.
I hope you aren't leaving because of me. Of course you are entitled to write anything you want here (within reason), as am I. Please don't get upset when someone questions your statements - it's normal and part of being in a forum community. And please don't think people are "too thick" or "too lazy" if you post something about your system that only makes sense to you. Without knowing the full details of your system (which I don't expect you to divulge of course), I was within my rights to respectfully query your assertation that the last 10 UTZs were all winners. Anyway, let's move on from this, and I hope we can all try to keep this great thread as supportive and good-spirited as possible.

Best wishes, LITEchild, and good luck with your trading.
You reap what you sow.
  • #10,466
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:00pm Oct 17, 2014 11:00pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Yes, but the "gold" here is not that it is uneven... rather that it is uneven within h bars. What happens after h bars is the area of the chart where triggers can get fired off. For example, in LITE's chart, UTZ 10 and 9 happen really close to each other after 24 bars but on closer inspection, the 25th bar after UTZ 10 is close to the boundaries of the zone, which is confirmed transient at the 25th bar therefore SHORT. UTZ9 is a bit trickier and I would have passed. UTZ8 is not in sequence (it is the 2nd bottom tz) so I take this as a setup...
This is a damn fine post, Vlady. Thank you so much, as always. I don't know how you find the time to work full time, trade, and write so many great posts on here. Presumably you don't have young children!?
You reap what you sow.
  • #10,467
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:10pm Oct 17, 2014 11:10pm
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} This is a damn fine post, Vlady. Thank you so much, as always. I don't know how you find the time to work full time, trade, and write so many great posts on here. Presumably you don't have young children!?
lol, he has commented a few times about people looking over his shoulder at work.
  • #10,468
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:35pm Oct 17, 2014 11:35pm
Quoting jackprobe
{quote} Thank you very much k. I use your code, it is great - thanks. I try to modify it and i got this on image. I do not understand the calculation of problem bars & fully resolved bars. I got fully resolved bars (164) > problem bars (103). It is must be like that ? or is there something wrong ? I use h_right smaller than h_left for getting fast conclusion on developing zone .... i think this is important. Thanks =jack {image}
hi Jack,
Problem bars denote confirmed transient zones. Fully resolved bars denote potential TZs that have become recurrent.
This appears ok, as far as the calculation is concerned. I'll simplify the language in V4.
k
  • #10,469
  • Oct 18, 2014 1:19am Oct 18, 2014 1:19am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting FX-Jay
If you feel inclined to hate or give bad/useless/nonconstructive thoughts, I just need you to read these posts before: (I bet all your questions have been answered there) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7785885#post7785885 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7785904#post7785904 This is as real & good as it gets. I started this journey live on this thread. Please go back and check my posts from day 1 which is almost a month ago. If I can do it, I don't see any reason why you can't. Again I repeat, read...

Great results FX-Jay!

One thing that is puzzling me is that on the 18th September you called a high probability sell trade on USD/MXN which was trading towards tzs down below.

Quoting FX-Jay
An extremely high probability trade proving itself on USD/MXN Check out the charts with TZ, if you can spot a sell worth 70+ pips then you're on the right track. Just the positive swaps to be gained on selling that thing should be a reward by itself Edit: don't forget the time factor, if you are going to take the trade manage your money accordingly
Did you take a loss on that because since the then price has been going up so a bit confused? I know even if it is a loss it is one trade but you hinted that you were correlating a lot of your trades so I assume you were mostly selling USD pairs at the time.

I am not hating on your or trying to be negative...I am just trying to make sense of how you trade and how you identify these "high probability" opportunities. Your statement shows a very low level of losses and consecutive losses so just did not understand how you avoid a loss or multiple losses with the USD shorts.

Personally I am not trading TZs but it has helped me to take a certain view of the market which are worth bearing in mind when I trade other strategies.

Anyway I wish you all the best and please do not take the post in a negative way. I am just curious.

Regards

Neio
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #10,470
  • Oct 18, 2014 1:59am Oct 18, 2014 1:59am
Quoting grin
{quote} Feeling perplexed? Holy grail ain't easy. More often than not one must dig through plenty of dirt to find a gold nugget.
Actually, the holy grail is impossible. You only have to read about the spectacular rise and fall of LTCM (Long-Term Capital Management) to understand that. In fact, I hope the people who have just started making double or triple digit returns each month trading the systems in this thread acquaint themselves with this story. To summarise, the two big lessons you must learn are:

1) Never over-leverage. Even after many years of success. In my personal opinion even 5:1 is too much.

2) Always accept that the system can fail. Even after many years of success. And especially in times of unprecedented fundamental events. One day towards the end their tried-and-tested system gave a probability of failure for a particular trade as one in a million. Guess what? It failed.

I repeat, there is no holy grail.
You reap what you sow.
  • #10,471
  • Oct 18, 2014 2:19am Oct 18, 2014 2:19am
Hi All, Just want to say Thank You to EURUSDD for the great concept and to FreeFox for the TZ indi.
work perfectly great when combined with my shifted renko.. once again thank you and God Bless You All..
MTH

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Shifted Flip Renko and Transient Zone 1.png Size: 369 KB
  • #10,472
  • Oct 18, 2014 2:39am Oct 18, 2014 2:39am
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote} The main trend is whatever you want it to be - random numbers here... you can test a main trend of 7 mins 36 secs and a counter trend of 43 secs. If a 43 sec divergence has statistical validity against 00:07:36, you have a basis to begin. You can do the same with numbers of ticks. The smaller you go, the more you will be affected by time of day, and you will need to adjust parameters for that as well. So, for a given time window, you have, say, these 100 different time or tick (or something else) ratios that have proven statistically relevant....
Thank you for this. It's validated an idea in my head. But as I said, I'm not a coder so I will need one to write the "tester" you've described. I'm essentially measuring for magnitude. There are plenty of timing signals one can generate from countless things but magnitude is what brings pips.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #10,473
  • Oct 18, 2014 2:46am Oct 18, 2014 2:46am


Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} This is a damn fine post, Vlady. Thank you so much, as always. I don't know how you find the time to work full time, trade, and write so many great posts on here. Presumably you don't have young children!?

Hahaha! Hit it on the head.
I have an understanding girlfriend who supports what I do. And the young child I have is me.
i love this stuff. Even if you have to treat it like a business etc, it's fun. Bloody fun.
the extra time to write and help....it's just more fun. Dunno if I'm explaining it right.
It's more fun when it's shared!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #10,474
  • Oct 18, 2014 2:47am Oct 18, 2014 2:47am
Quoting VVizlan
{quote} lol, he has commented a few times about people looking over his shoulder at work.
Ive been caught out a few times. Thankfully none of the, know what FX is.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #10,475
  • Oct 18, 2014 2:50am Oct 18, 2014 2:50am
Quoting MetaCoder
{quote} The cycle-identifer indicator from Page 1 of the Thread looks great. Seems to me that if you buy on the MajorCycleBuy signals and sell on the MajorCycleSell signals, further confirming that the most recent different-timeframe stochastic mismatch occurred above your buys or below your sells, you will have very high probability trades. For trade closure, you could use the next MajorSellCycle signal to close your buys, and vice versa. IF, of course, the indicator draws these signals in a timely fashion. I mean, it doesn't ONLY look good...
It repaints, MC
He has the right to criticize who has the heart to help. Abraham Lincoln
  • #10,476
  • Oct 18, 2014 2:50am Oct 18, 2014 2:50am
Quoting Kiads
Hi All, Just want to say Thank You to EURUSDD for the great concept and to FreeFox for the TZ indi. work perfectly great when combined with my shifted renko.. once again thank you and God Bless You All.. MTH {image}
That is a thing of beauty. I don't know Renko bars, but the indis just hit the turns so well.
What h value are you using, if that's okay to reveal?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #10,477
  • Oct 18, 2014 2:57am Oct 18, 2014 2:57am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Cool! Cool! That's great to know and compare! The 1:1 works well for me on the 15M which is why I wondered what effect going to 30M would do or whether I'd have to adjust the h value as effectively I'd have twice as less bars on the 15M so hence potentially wider SL or R. I will have to investigate this - so thanks for doing the 30M research! Just recently I've been trying to understand and implement Van Tharp's concept of R multiples... so I've been re-analysing my setups/methods and finding some gaping holes in my treatment (or lack...
Hi,guys.
what is 1:1?and R?
Sorry,but I missed out on something.
thx.
  • #10,478
  • Oct 18, 2014 2:59am Oct 18, 2014 2:59am
Quoting Kiads
Hi All, Just want to say Thank You to EURUSDD for the great concept and to FreeFox for the TZ indi. work perfectly great when combined with my shifted renko.. once again thank you and God Bless You All.. MTH {image}
Kiads can u please post your renko indi and template? Thank you so much!
  • #10,479
  • Oct 18, 2014 3:22am Oct 18, 2014 3:22am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Hmmmm, looking at this again after a while, there appears to be an error in my calculation and statement. Sorry. .......... I hope the calculation is now clearer and I apologize for the error made previously. Cheers, k
That's great, thanks for clearing that up
He has the right to criticize who has the heart to help. Abraham Lincoln
  • #10,480
  • Oct 18, 2014 3:53am Oct 18, 2014 3:53am
Quoting Neio
{quote} Great results FX-Jay! One thing that is puzzling me is that on the 18th September you called a high probability sell trade on USD/MXN which was trading towards tzs down below. {quote} Did you take a loss on that because since the then price has been going up so a bit confused? I know even if it is a loss it is one trade but you hinted that you were correlating a lot of your trades so I assume you were mostly selling USD pairs at the time. I am not hating on your or trying to be negative...I am just trying to make sense of how you trade and...
I see only a profitable sell trade on USD/MXN 18th of September with a high probability profit target, which has been touched on the 19th before it was going up. Notice that fxJay said a couple of times that he only takes trades with 90% + probability. Even if he was betting on totally clearing of the lowest (P)TZ, he did get the possibility to close the trade at breakeven when the trade expired (assuming a certain H).
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