What an ugly market the past 2 days eh? | Page 2 | Forex Factory

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What an ugly market the past 2 days eh?

  • #21
  • Oct 17, 2014 4:37pm Oct 17, 2014 4:37pm
Quoting justin7
{quote} I said the past 2 days only not the past 5 years
No, actually, what you said was ->
Quoting justin7
{quote} lol if the past 2 days = every day for the past 5 years then nobody would profit.
And, I maintain the same.

Rules of supply and demand testing on break outs isn't a new market concept...we are still seeing the very same thing, only the ranges have been a lot different over the last couple of days...and even at that, really only the speed of play has changed.

We can still see the same Average weekly trading ranges, only they did it more so specific to 2 days instead of spread across the week.

This is a difference of opinion based on our own individual optics as viewed through preferential time frames.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #22
  • Oct 17, 2014 4:39pm Oct 17, 2014 4:39pm
Quoting justin7
total complete ignoration of the fundamentals for 2 days straight along with 20-40 pip fakeouts and a bit of randomness. But the disregard for fundamental releases was the most i've seen for such an extended period. Usually it's one day followed by a fundamental release that takes it the intended direction. These past 2 days just haven't fit into anything at all to me
Macroeconomic data aren't the whole fundamental things to analize.
I wasn't able to predict these "backwards" movements, but it certainly didn't surprise me.

There's a way too deep data that nobody is watching.

If you're interested, look at my profile for the thread I started.

Kind regards,
MarketFox.-
Trade, don't bet.
  • #23
  • Oct 17, 2014 6:22pm Oct 17, 2014 6:22pm
October naturally has always had the most volatility in the FX market if you look back over previous years. Also, this week in particular, there have been some key drivers, economic downturn from the IMF and Ebola fears have hit the stock markets which have forced alot of money out of the stocks and into the FX markets causing wild swings. Unfortunately, technical analysis sometimes in these cases goes a little out of the window (which is annoying for the people like me) and causes randomness in the markets.

Apparently, I've been told by many experienced traders that the FX markets used to behave with volatility like we've seen in the last few days but mainly because alot of the key drivers for the market tend to focus on more consistent assets such as stocks and not FX, however, please dont quote me on this. I believe the next few weeks will behave similiar which is good and bad depending on how you play it. By mid November we should see more normal behaviour in the FX market as we have seen in 2014.
  • #24
  • Oct 17, 2014 6:33pm Oct 17, 2014 6:33pm
Beautiful logical market this week actually. We had a huge uptrend in dollar index past couple of months without a single decent pullback.. It was only to be expected to have heavy consolidation after such a period.
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  • #25
  • Oct 17, 2014 6:53pm Oct 17, 2014 6:53pm
So true, Justin. I think it was the result of high volumes, but no 'genuine' price movement - if I'm making sense.
  • #26
  • Oct 17, 2014 7:00pm Oct 17, 2014 7:00pm
Trading for a long! time ....... nothing new about the last few days ..... seen it many times before and basically that was the market for almost a decade mid 80’s into the 90’s.

It’s ​Just relative to your experience, ........................ So moving forward... sometime in the future you will experience it again! and based on your experience of the last few days you will find yourself posting some sage advice like .........

"nothing new about the last few days ..... seen it many times before and basically that was the market back in Oct 2014”

Cheers .......... J
  • #27
  • Oct 17, 2014 7:07pm Oct 17, 2014 7:07pm
............nothing changed but volatility and that is pretty normal........................................
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atheer1
  • #28
  • Oct 17, 2014 7:07pm Oct 17, 2014 7:07pm
I think it's gone choppy because of global economic bearishness combined with bearishness of the US economy, and then the Fed saying the US economy is alright.

Was that a stop hunt on EURJPY near London open? I shouldn't have been in it, but I was and I got killed
  • #29
  • Oct 17, 2014 7:35pm Oct 17, 2014 7:35pm
Quoting jamesph61
Trading for a long! time ....... nothing new about the last few days ..... seen it many times before and basically that was the market for almost a decade mid 80’s into the 90’s.

Shorten this...you don't have to look back through the decades and you most likely won't have to look forward more than a fist full of days.

Market chop is Monday through Wednesday, depending on the base currency and the weekly press...

Over and above this...to find a basic and typical market chop cycle, look at any NFP week.

The ranges will typically not be the same as the few days in question...but the cycles will.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #30
  • Oct 17, 2014 7:44pm Oct 17, 2014 7:44pm
Quoting justin7
total complete ignoration of the fundamentals for 2 days straight along with 20-40 pip fakeouts and a bit of randomness. But the disregard for fundamental releases was the most i've seen for such an extended period. Usually it's one day followed by a fundamental release that takes it the intended direction. These past 2 days just haven't fit into anything at all to me
What you're witnessing is longer term players altering portfolios. So any short term fundamentals are seemingly being "disregarded" but in reality over ruled by larger stakes.
  • #31
  • Oct 17, 2014 8:02pm Oct 17, 2014 8:02pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} No, actually, what you said was ->{quote} And, I maintain the same. Rules of supply and demand testing on break outs isn't a new market concept...we are still seeing the very same thing, only the ranges have been a lot different over the last couple of days...and even at that, really only the speed of play has changed. We can still see the same Average weekly trading ranges, only they did it more so specific to 2 days instead of spread across the week. This is a difference of opinion based on our own individual optics as viewed through preferential...
the past 2 days for crossed usd pairs has been a mess with just perfect fib retracements across the board in like you said a range. you can't honestly say the past 2 days for the major usd crossed pairs has been a trending outlook
  • #32
  • Oct 17, 2014 8:05pm Oct 17, 2014 8:05pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Yeah. Demo. I completed writing the code and launched it on a demo... Issue being? Here's my "Live", GBPJPY trades, holding... If you could do what I do, you would do what I do. {image}
my question is why would you buy on a false price breakout...without confirmation
  • #33
  • Oct 17, 2014 8:13pm Oct 17, 2014 8:13pm
Quoting justin7
{quote} the past 2 days for crossed usd pairs has been a mess with just perfect fib retracements across the board in like you said a range. you can't honestly say the past 2 days for the major usd crossed pairs has been a trending outlook
I never said that at all.

I believe what I said was that supply and demand zones get retested on breakouts.

Which USD cross are you specifically looking at?

Here's EURUSD from an H4 to weekly scale.

What we see is a supported range, Broken...and then retested as resistance.

I just look at and for the same thing on a smaller faster scale. The market runs it's own clock...we don't get to decide when it gets to it's destination, we just need to realize when it has arrived.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #34
  • Oct 17, 2014 8:21pm Oct 17, 2014 8:21pm
Quoting justin7
{quote} my question is why would you buy on a false price breakout...without confirmation
No.

An Example of the logic that I am testing. There were some issues early on based on an overload of platform and VPS resources...but what you see here...

1. There were missed trades due to platform issues.


2. Longs were in trade based on a cycle change while shorts were still waiting prosperity.
3. Shorts were able to exit, cost averaged in profit while longs cost averaged into trend.

Again, this boils down to your optics...what you view as range, profit and the time you have to commit to market.

I am not here to piss on your parade...just stating what I see...

Color me the other side of the coin...not an adversary.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #35
  • Oct 17, 2014 8:21pm Oct 17, 2014 8:21pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Shorten this...you don't have to look back through the decades and you most likely won't have to look forward more than a fist full of days. Market chop is Monday through Wednesday, depending on the base currency and the weekly press... Over and above this...to find a basic and typical market chop cycle, look at any NFP week. The ranges will typically not be the same as the few days in question...but the cycles will.


  • #36
  • Oct 17, 2014 8:35pm Oct 17, 2014 8:35pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} No. An Example of the logic that I am testing. There were some issues early on based on an overload of platform and VPS resources...but what you see here... 1. There were missed trades due to platform issues. 2. Longs were in trade based on a cycle change while shorts were still waiting prosperity. 3. Shorts were able to exit, cost averaged in profit while longs cost averaged into trend. Again, this boils down to your optics...what you view as range, profit and the time you have to commit to market. I am not here to piss on your parade...just...
i'm not even going to say anything.
  • #37
  • Oct 17, 2014 8:43pm Oct 17, 2014 8:43pm
Quoting Kong
{quote} What you're witnessing is longer term players altering portfolios. So any short term fundamentals are seemingly being "disregarded" but in reality over ruled by larger stakes.
You just hit the target here! Totally agree.
Trade, don't bet.
  • #38
  • Oct 17, 2014 8:49pm Oct 17, 2014 8:49pm
Quoting justin7
{quote} i'm not even going to say anything.
Is your EURUSD chart different than mine?

Quoting justin7
{quote} I only trade h4 + d1 combination

Or are we just seeing things under different optics?

Look at a faster perspective...

Can you see where the sellers were, and where the buyers sat?

Supply
Demand

That's all I'm saying...
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #39
  • Oct 17, 2014 8:57pm Oct 17, 2014 8:57pm
Quoting Kong
{quote} What you're witnessing is longer term players altering portfolios. So any short term fundamentals are seemingly being "disregarded" but in reality over ruled by larger stakes.
lol. All I was saying this whole time was that the past 2 days have been a little uglier than usual! lol. But it's been perfect fib sequences and bounces within that range for all major usd crosses au nu gu eu.
  • #40
  • Oct 17, 2014 9:00pm Oct 17, 2014 9:00pm
What made it odd and unusual was the disregard for fundamentals completely. I am not saying it doesn't happen because I'm a technical trader first so I don't bet against the market not following fundamentals. But I'm saying the blatant disregard and opposite move has been a little extreme especially usdcad on thursday. Usually its once here or there but just saying it's happened for a couple of days now. It's a little uglier than usual is the point I was making..i'm sure someone else knows what i mean
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