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Trading is as simple as ABCD

  • #1,961
  • Oct 17, 2014 9:48am Oct 17, 2014 9:48am
will it or won't it???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPYM1.png Size: 64 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,962
  • Oct 17, 2014 9:53am Oct 17, 2014 9:53am
Yea!! A winner at last 4.6 pips on NZDJPY first winner this afternoon this seems a lot tougher than this mormnings walk in the park, mind you I've been up more than 30 pips and just not taken them...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,963
  • Oct 17, 2014 10:05am Oct 17, 2014 10:05am
Quoting capstone
{quote} 3 things: 1.) Your buy on GBPCAD was against the rules you wrote just this morning! Why take it? your 35LWMA was still red even. 2.) Just because I like to reference higher TF, does not mean you should! If I see a confirmed pattern of significance on a higher TF, at a high or low point, I might hang on a bit harder. I will not hang on for the hope of a runner, but might not be as quick to cut and run either. You are obviously doing fine without it. Keep that going. 3.) HUG Your Orphans!! Even the skinny ones ! Do not discriminate against...

Yep that makes sense and I think this morning they were trending nicely whereas this afternoon its not so clear cut. Probably the old Friday afternoon blues. Yep like that idea of trailing stops up thats a good one, trail up behind every reverse candle so if buying whenever I get a red one trail stop up below it, locks in pips as I go....

Yea sorry about that one that was a silly one off trade chasing that news spike, and then when I realised I should of faded it I did but again stupidly held for a runner, bloody mad , had 20 plus pips there at one time. Will say it was what I call a system trade even though the mas were lagging because of the news spike , i did buy a HL in an 1 min uptrend and thats what I'm all about really just trade the 1 min trend. I use the indies as guides but price dictates to me.

That all said nothing good came of it did it??? Should of done with 20 pips but lets move on...

Looking at my top trenders this afternoon , they all keep swinging about with no follow through so to speak so need to demonstrate some discipline and only take AAA+ trades or even better just call it a day....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,964
  • Oct 17, 2014 10:49am Oct 17, 2014 10:49am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Yep that makes sense and I think this morning they were trending nicely whereas this afternoon its not so clear cut.
That is what I keep thinking about. I have been watching charts for a long time now. This is the most activity I have seen in a couple of years! Maybe I am wrong, but it sure feels that way. Anyway, this market makes trending strategies look like the glorious unfolding, but when the ranges come and the volume drops off, watch out. Those skinny orphans will be the only thing feeding you.

The market will also cycle where the London session is awesome and New York does nothing and sometimes, London does nothing and New York goes on a runner. Seems like it might last a week like that, then suddenly one day, it reverses, or they both go crazy or flat. Just be prepared and nimble. You are doing great!
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #1,965
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:30am Oct 17, 2014 11:30am
Quoting capstone
{quote} That is what I keep thinking about. I have been watching charts for a long time now. This is the most activity I have seen in a couple of years! Maybe I am wrong, but it sure feels that way. Anyway, this market makes trending strategies look like the glorious unfolding, but when the ranges come and the volume drops off, watch out. Those skinny orphans will be the only thing feeding you. The market will also cycle where the London session is awesome and New York does nothing and sometimes, London does nothing and New York goes on a runner....
Yes its all about having a system that works in both markets I guess, mine worked really well this morning but its a struggle this afternoon , can't find a decent entry anywhere so guess thats when you need real discipline to stay out unless you get your signal.

Very important to not trade when there's no setups which is hard as you want to trade. Thats half the reason I messed about with those odd trades this afternoon just bored and sitting here looking for something to trade. Thats got to be the secret, if there's nothing setting up then don't trade...

Don't need too many sessions like this mornings a week to be successful so just gotta sit on your hands when they're not. Two days in a row Ive doubled my account so need to be happy and just not worry if nothing sets up sometimes there will be even better days than today too...

Yep its a mixture of skills thats for sure, I know I can trade ok so now need to learn the discipline how not to trade...Fascinating isn't it???
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,966
  • Oct 17, 2014 3:25pm Oct 17, 2014 3:25pm
Quoting clivepackham
Hmmm nothing again Its funny I've gone back to that stupid hold mentality again, crazy!! 3 good trades and nothing to show for it and just one loser all afternoon. Hmmm where are you Capstone need a sharp punch in the face to put me right again, you and your bloody long term timeframes!!!!
I have struggled with the same thing. Try and hold a trade longer and it ends up coming back and stopping me out at BE or for a loss. During the past few weeks I have adopted a mentality of taking small profits (3-10 pips) and not concerning myself if a trade runs for 10-30 pips after I get out. I might be wrong, but on the smaller TF if you can keep your win rate high and shoot for consistent small profits that seems to make more sense than waiting/hoping for that one big winner of 30-40 pips.

As a result my account balance is up 31% this week alone. I've been keeping my strike rate high while cutting my losses quickly. I know, what is cutting my losses quickly mean. I struggle with that one also...but that's a whole different story..lol.
  • #1,967
  • Oct 17, 2014 5:05pm Oct 17, 2014 5:05pm
Quoting ozziedave
{quote} I have struggled with the same thing. Try and hold a trade longer and it ends up coming back and stopping me out at BE or for a loss. During the past few weeks I have adopted a mentality of taking small profits (3-10 pips) and not concerning myself if a trade runs for 10-30 pips after I get out. I might be wrong, but on the smaller TF if you can keep your win rate high and shoot for consistent small profits that seems to make more sense than waiting/hoping for that one big winner of 30-40 pips. As a result my account balance is up 31% this...
Hi ozziedave

"cutting your losses quickly" come on now, you can't just make a statement like that and disappear???

So what is cutting our losses quickly???

Good question for me as I'm a firm believer we have to keep our winners bigger than our losers. Now if we can't control our winners size as thats down to the market then I guess we have to control the size of our losers. After alls said and done thats all we can control... I've a couple of theory's on it, firstly put it behind signal candle and leave it at that nice and tight or put it behind the key level you've entered off of probably about 10 pips or lastly how about putting it behind our 5 min lwma as we are trading the 5 min trenders...probably about 20 pips. Spread risk accordingly of course...

Come on Ossiedave whats your idea of "cutting the losses quickly"????

On the otherside of the coin how can we get bigger winners? Simple trade the strongest trenders on the 5 min chart entering on the 1 min chart... Nice tight stops with hopefully 5 min momentum runs... Best thing to do is have a good look at the bigger runners today and see if you can see any common ground or setups that regularly produce longer runs.. Lastly we could try to enter on the break and retest of either 35 lwma but especially the 5 min one then hold until LWMA reveres again???

All different ideas to work with and see where we go...

Come on then Ossiedave, whats your thoughts on cutting losers quickly????
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,968
  • Oct 17, 2014 8:21pm Oct 17, 2014 8:21pm
hey ive got a good one. EURAUD could aim for 1.5. here presenting to you Daily chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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And here is the hourly setup im gonna watch to ride the trend: (unless aussie lets me down)

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  • #1,969
  • Oct 17, 2014 8:42pm Oct 17, 2014 8:42pm
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Hi ozziedave "cutting your losses quickly" come on now, you can't just make a statement like that and disappear??? So what is cutting our losses quickly??? Good question for me as I'm a firm believer we have to keep our winners bigger than our losers. Now if we can't control our winners size as thats down to the market then I guess we have to control the size of our losers. After alls said and done thats all we can control... I've a couple of theory's on it, firstly put it behind signal candle and leave it at that nice and tight...
Honestly, I struggle with SL and manually exiting bad trades. For me, this would have to be the most difficult part of trading and the thing that has hurt my progress the most. Learning to take a loss is part of the game and something every trader needs to come to terms with. Last week I took one loss for 6 pips and I manually exited that trade. I' am always in front of my PC when I trade so I typically don't use a SL. I know..I know....not a good habit to get into. My mental SL is usually the last swing low on an long position and the last swing high on a short position. If price stalls too long and doesn't move in my direction (2-3 candles) I will manually exit the trade.

Sorry I couldn't share some magic "cut your losses short" formula, but that's all I have.
  • #1,970
  • Edited 6:17am Oct 18, 2014 5:54am | Edited 6:17am
Quoting kwonkicker
hey ive got a good one. EURAUD could aim for 1.5. here presenting to you Daily chart: {image} And here is the hourly setup im gonna watch to ride the trend: (unless aussie lets me down) {image}
Hi Kwonkicker

Nice daily chart and if you're a believer in Elliot Wave one could say you've possibly just caught wave 1 in the new uptrend,after that little abc correction, 4 more waves to go??? Confirmation would be wave 2 coming back but not overlapping into last wave down, should take support off of last LH in down trend?? Could be nice....

Mind you I'm afraid I struggle with daily charts as I don't know which direction the next ticks going never mind the next day, just my thoughts of course. But please fell free to post any nice ABCD moves from dailys, 4hrlys , hrlys etc why not its all the same, price action is price action whether its a tick chart or a daily chart its all the same to me, but I struggle with discipline and patience on my 1 minute charts so daily charts would be the death of me...

EDIT: Oooops!! Just realised I got that all wrong. Said I wasn't much good at daily charts, thats actually the c move of the correction that prices is running upto the 1.5 level now and not the wave 1 of the new uptrend. Therefore a great sell is setting up at the end of this move up sorry guess thats what you're saying aren't you buy at point C on your chart,from your hrly gartley butterfly pattern aiming for the 61.8 target but then how about a reverse and sell wave 1 of the new down trend the start of 5 Elliot waves down???

Sorry said I wasn't very good at daily charts didn't I???
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,971
  • Oct 18, 2014 5:58am Oct 18, 2014 5:58am
Quoting ozziedave
{quote} Honestly, I struggle with SL and manually exiting bad trades. For me, this would have to be the most difficult part of trading and the thing that has hurt my progress the most. Learning to take a loss is part of the game and something every trader needs to come to terms with. Last week I took one loss for 6 pips and I manually exited that trade. I' am always in front of my PC when I trade so I typically don't use a SL. I know..I know....not a good habit to get into. My mental SL is usually the last swing low on an long position and the last...
Makes sense to me especially that get out if it don't go after a couple of candles. That makes sense as if I'm trading a pullback and it doesn't react to my level then I'm wrong about that level just close it out and move onto the next setup. But instead we just sit there don't we hoping upon hope it will go our way...

Nope far best to get out sooner than later and be done with it. Your setup didn't work so move on...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,972
  • Edited 7:38am Oct 18, 2014 7:15am | Edited 7:38am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Hi Kwonkicker Nice daily chart and if you're a believer in Elliot Wave one could say you've possibly just caught wave 1 in the new uptrend,after that little abc correction, 4 more waves to go??? Confirmation would be wave 2 coming back but not overlapping into last wave down, should take support off of last LH in down trend?? Could be nice.... Mind you I'm afraid I struggle with daily charts as I don't know which direction the next ticks going never mind the next day, just my thoughts of course. But please fell free to post any nice ABCD...


you are thinking too much. i have a daily bias - UP. and i have an hourly buy setup. Thats all. It might not give us the gartley to buy, so look for hourly trend line break or anything else that you consider a signal. Im plan to buy somewhere between current highs and point C, or a break of highs to the upside, and take profit at point D.

You always need 2 things to enter the market.

1- speculation. Me thinking euraud is going up is pure speculation. I just looked at daily chart and decided that its going up.
2 - entry method/technique/setup. That could be anything, harmonics, TL break, pinbar at sup/res ect.
  • #1,973
  • Oct 18, 2014 7:41am Oct 18, 2014 7:41am
I personally feel that trendline breaks are one of the strongest tools we can use to re-enter a trending market, and using Renko bars helps keep you in a trend longer.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD Renko.png Size: 31 KB
  • #1,974
  • Oct 18, 2014 9:15am Oct 18, 2014 9:15am
Quoting JackAntigua
I personally feel that trendline breaks are one of the strongest tools we can use to re-enter a trending market, and using Renko bars helps keep you in a trend longer. {image}

Wow Jack!!!

That chart looks great, I've often thought about using renko but never got round to it as its price not time related, how about trading the strongest trending pairs using your renko charts??? How do they look??? can you put a couple up form last thursday and friday??? My charts will give you the strongest trenders at the time I posted...

How do we get Renko bar charts????
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,975
  • Oct 18, 2014 9:48am Oct 18, 2014 9:48am
Hi Clive,

I've just finished my weekly analysis on the pairs I follow plus Dow & Gold. Excuse the other indicators shown, they are just what I use in Tradestation as I can't get on with metatrader at all. They're all based on 10 pip bars.

I did try to get Renko bars on metatrader but got a bit frustrated but I'm sure it's possible for someonce with rather better technical aptitude than myself!

ttfn
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Renko week end 17 Oct 2014.pdf   860 KB | 420 downloads
  • #1,976
  • Oct 18, 2014 10:18am Oct 18, 2014 10:18am
I have used Range bars before on MT4, which are very similar to Renko. Clive, understand that it will change your settings on everything else. You are doing great right now. Looking into something this different will only delay what you are trying to accomplish. Stick with what you know first and then play with the other stuff later. Just my thoughts.
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #1,977
  • Oct 18, 2014 2:46pm Oct 18, 2014 2:46pm
I agree with Capstone...you're on the right path. Stick to what you know and build on that. I tried range bar/renko charts and found them difficult to read when compared to the time based charts. I was always seconding guessing myself and never sure of a trade. In the end this just became a 2 month distraction form looking a time based charts and concentrating on price action.
  • #1,978
  • Oct 18, 2014 7:55pm Oct 18, 2014 7:55pm
Quoting JackAntigua
I personally feel that trendline breaks are one of the strongest tools we can use to re-enter a trending market, and using Renko bars helps keep you in a trend longer. {image}
Hi JackAntiqua thanks for the show of charts, would it be feasible to use the ABCD pattern with them , it does look like it eh,
  • #1,979
  • Edited 6:36am Oct 19, 2014 1:17am | Edited 6:36am
Hi Clive

My chart set up is a little different form yours so if you don't want me to post anymore examples let me know. I don't want to side track the thread but thought I might expand on what you're doing here.

First off I use 2 CCI indicators, one for longer term trend direction and one for pullbacks as you do. What The overview of my chart is for people who would be very conservative traders and want the highest probability trade set ups. Again, this maybe an example of an idea set up but they do happen often.

Lets get to the chart.

Price is in an uptrend starting at the far left side. Price then takes a sharp downturn at the red dotted line. Notice how the momentum on the bottom CCI indicator drops below the 100 level. Now at this stage we don't know if price will continue down or make another run up so you need to observe price action here. Price action continues breaking the lows and the CCI stays below the 100 level until it falls below the 0 level at the red dashed line. Again we need to observe price action here and we notice over time the CCI stays between the 0 level and the -100 level. So we haven't seen any momentum suggesting a trade may be setting up. This up, down sideways chop continues until we get a sharp move down at the next red dashed line as we see the first signs of momentum as the CCI dips below the -100 level. This is the first sign that we need to start to pay more attention to the price action. As price starts to move lower as the CCI continues below the -100 level. As this happens we can start to look for any pull backs against the shorter term CCI indicator and take the short trades. If the CCI continues to move below the -200 level that is even better. I would say when conditions get like this you are looking at a very good set up. I won't make a statement like you'll get 80% winners as the percentage win rate will depend alot on the individual trader and their skill level. Let's just say the probabilities should be in your favour.

Again, keep in mind this is a 5 min chart and we are trying to consistently capture 3-15 pips and not swing for the fences on every trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM5 CCI Example .png Size: 102 KB
  • #1,980
  • Oct 19, 2014 5:52am Oct 19, 2014 5:52am
Quoting asaljay
{quote} Hi JackAntiqua thanks for the show of charts, would it be feasible to use the ABCD pattern with them , it does look like it eh,
Quite possibly although I don't really use harmonics myself, they just confuse my simple mind.
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