What an ugly market the past 2 days eh? | Forex Factory

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What an ugly market the past 2 days eh?

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 17, 2014 9:49am Oct 17, 2014 9:49am
total complete ignoration of the fundamentals for 2 days straight along with 20-40 pip fakeouts and a bit of randomness. But the disregard for fundamental releases was the most i've seen for such an extended period. Usually it's one day followed by a fundamental release that takes it the intended direction. These past 2 days just haven't fit into anything at all to me
  • #2
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:13am Oct 17, 2014 11:13am
am i alone here or does anyone else feel the same about the past 2 days after a great morning on wednesday?
  • #3
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:18am Oct 17, 2014 11:18am
you are not alone, this weeks markets was totally idiots.

a lot of nonsense, i think it is mainly due to the s&p500 "crash" and his correlation with usdjpy (that is correlated to usd).

so, a lot of confusion, up moves, down moves, up again, breakout, fake breakout, counterfake breakout, simply a mess.

about foundamentals, this week any sort of foundamental news was totally useless, the market is just crazy and anything can happen at any time.

not everybody can survive!
  • #4
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:20am Oct 17, 2014 11:20am
In my experience the markets are getting more random every year.Forex is worse because it doesn't move anymore,just fake-out to take your money.The tipping point is getting closer.
  • #5
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:27am Oct 17, 2014 11:27am
its fine

take the rough with the smooth
  • #6
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:27am Oct 17, 2014 11:27am
Quoting adr201
In my experience the markets are getting more random every year.Forex is worse because it doesn't move anymore,just fake-out to take your money.The tipping point is getting closer.
It is pretty much the exact same market as I have seen over the last 5 years...

The only thing that has changed is the ranges, this week had some exceptional ranges but even this is only compared to the last couple of years.

Really depends on your trade methodology and how/what you consider profit.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #7
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:34am Oct 17, 2014 11:34am
I'm not talking about the whole week I'm only talking about the past 2 days. I mean I just haven't seen such disregard for strong fundamental data especially the negative cad news yesterday for an extended period like for 2 days with this much released? Usually ignoring fundamental data happens once and then its gone. But the past 2 days I just feel were useless is all.
  • #8
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:34am Oct 17, 2014 11:34am
Quoting adr201
In my experience the markets are getting more random every year.Forex is worse because it doesn't move anymore,just fake-out to take your money.The tipping point is getting closer.
It is not getting random, but somehow more manipulated.

Take eurusd for example, the europe want it to go down, ecb is doing QE, and this naturally should let the eur go down..
On the other side, the fed is tightening his qe, BUT at the same time they don't want the dollar to go up as this would go against their inflation target (they like to have a high inflation), so they are still selling usd.

The technical name for this i guess is "currency war", it's true in the past years and especially this year this phenomenon is escalating in a ridiculous way, so it's really like there is a war in the fx market right now, we can say any market is a constant war between buyers and sellers, but in the fx market right now the people making war are central banks and not normal traders, so basically all the moves that you see on the charts are the effect of just a few partecipants that are fighting big.

The problem in this is that it is somehow easy to predict when and why the majority of traders (many many traders) buy or sell, as they all look the same chart patterns, but it is impossible to predict when one single individual (a central bank for example) buy or sell, as he can choose to do it at any time and for any reason.

You are right it's getting more difficult year after year, especially daytrading (it's already almost random).
  • #9
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:34am Oct 17, 2014 11:34am
thats why you dont trade more than 5% of your margin available to allow major swings. long term your positions will profit if you dont liquidate and hold.
look at usd/jpy for example. if you hadnt sold and held long from .80 all the way to today you could retire
  • #10
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:35am Oct 17, 2014 11:35am
Quoting Magix
{quote} It is pretty much the exact same market as I have seen over the last 5 years... The only thing that has changed is the ranges, this week had some exceptional ranges but even this is only compared to the last couple of years. Really depends on your trade methodology and how/what you consider profit.
lol if the past 2 days = every day for the past 5 years then nobody would profit.
  • #11
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:36am Oct 17, 2014 11:36am
Quoting yeniful
thats why you dont trade more than 5% of your margin available to allow major swings. long term your positions will profit if you dont liquidate and hold. look at usd/jpy for example. if you hadnt sold and held long from .80 all the way to today you could retire
I have money management. I basically made and lost nothing this week..But the point i'm just saying is that the past 2 days have been more random than usual probably..I have nothing against the market when it makes sense. I just think the past 2 days were more random than normal and more ignoration of fundamental data than usual?
  • #12
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:37am Oct 17, 2014 11:37am
Quoting notimportant
{quote} It is not getting random, but somehow more manipulated. Take eurusd for example, the europe want it to go down, ecb is doing QE, and this naturally should let the eur go down.. On the other side, the fed is tightening his qe, BUT at the same time they don't want the dollar to go up as this would go against their inflation target (they like to have a high inflation), so they are still selling usd. The technical name for this i guess is "currency war", it's true in the past years and especially this year this phenomenon is escalating in a...
not every situation is random and unpredictable...I'm only talking about the past 2 days..lol..just a little sickening seeing an ugly market i guess
  • #13
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:40am Oct 17, 2014 11:40am
btw if anyone is interested in joining a skype trading group message me. I have one with a few other traders but we welcome anyone. Not much drama or ego in there.
  • #14
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:46am Oct 17, 2014 11:46am
Quoting notimportant
{quote} It is not getting random, but somehow more manipulated. Take eurusd for example, the europe want it to go down, ecb is doing QE, and this naturally should let the eur go down.. On the other side, the fed is tightening his qe, BUT at the same time they don't want the dollar to go up as this would go against their inflation target (they like to have a high inflation), so they are still selling usd. The technical name for this i guess is "currency war", it's true in the past years and especially this year this phenomenon is escalating in a...
I agree with you for the most part but currency war doesn't explain why pa is getting more absurd every day.I think the robots are responsible now for something like 95% of the number of trades(not the volume).
  • #15
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:59am Oct 17, 2014 11:59am
Quoting adr201
In my experience the markets are getting more random every year.Forex is worse because it doesn't move anymore,just fake-out to take your money.The tipping point is getting closer.
I don't know what timeframes you look at but I find the weekly, daily and 2 hour charts filter out a lot of the noise and intra day randomness that you are describing.
  • #16
  • Oct 17, 2014 12:21pm Oct 17, 2014 12:21pm
I was thinking the same last two days also although I had a killer week. I was very tempted to trade during the mess but just sat on my hands, one of the hardest things I find when all you do for living is trade fx.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #17
  • Oct 17, 2014 12:25pm Oct 17, 2014 12:25pm
Quoting keabwan1
{quote} I don't know what timeframes you look at but I find the weekly, daily and 2 hour charts filter out a lot of the noise and intra day randomness that you are describing.
I only trade h4 + d1 combination and look at weekly from time to time.

the "randomness" he is describing is what i call an algorithm trade manager I feel is my own theory. That not just htf but the big banks etc use to purposely make direction appear random when they actually have the plan beforehand as to where they want to push the market. the market will move when and if it wants to and i dont bet against it even with strong fundamental data. they will push it where the want to don't bet against it.
  • #18
  • Oct 17, 2014 12:26pm Oct 17, 2014 12:26pm
Quoting Rtm
I was thinking the same last two days also although I had a killer week. I was very tempted to trade during the mess but just sat on my hands, one of the hardest things I find when all you do for living is trade fx.
lol yeah i bet you killed it on wednesday morning im guessing. I'm sure a lot had a killer week that day lol.
  • #19
  • Oct 17, 2014 2:12pm Oct 17, 2014 2:12pm
Quoting justin7
{quote} lol if the past 2 days = every day for the past 5 years then nobody would profit.
We have very different perspectives of market movement based on timeframes.

I look for trend and in trend changes and play applicably. Cost averaging is something I use to manage risk and the only thing that has been different in my strategy is the range of play...

I have finally managed to code my specific criteria for entries and exits based on the same frame of reference from my experience over the last years and it kicked ass this week.

The changes on trend and confirmation plays as tested through these optics automated...Most noteable, 100% closing average today, percentage gain on the last 3 days, (since the launch of this version), and the fact that it is still carrying trades positive.

If we based the market on performance and had this every day for the next 5 years, Warren Buffet would be calling me for advice...

Unfortunately, this will settle out and though the market will play to trend and chop in weeks coming, my expectation of growth based on range will be a lot lower.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #20
  • Oct 17, 2014 4:27pm Oct 17, 2014 4:27pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} We have very different perspectives of market movement based on timeframes. I look for trend and in trend changes and play applicably. Cost averaging is something I use to manage risk and the only thing that has been different in my strategy is the range of play... I have finally managed to code my specific criteria for entries and exits based on the same frame of reference from my experience over the last years and it kicked ass this week. The changes on trend and confirmation plays as tested through these optics automated...Most noteable,...
I said the past 2 days only not the past 5 years
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