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The similarity system

  • #10,301
  • Oct 16, 2014 5:49am Oct 16, 2014 5:49am
Quoting GU-Night
{quote} I don’t know. I can’t bet that a possible rare event on the opposite side not will happen within a given time in your example. So I have nothing to expect.
Seems little information 10 years of data to assume what will be a rare event?
  • #10,302
  • Oct 16, 2014 5:49am Oct 16, 2014 5:49am
Quoting ephisi
Deception is part of this game. I love this game.

Anyone shorting now? TP 1.2650
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #10,303
  • Oct 16, 2014 6:10am Oct 16, 2014 6:10am
Quoting burnssss
{quote} Seems little information 10 years of data to assume what will be a rare event?
Currently 10 consecutive bull bars is already rare in your example isn’t it. In every case, it is not my setup so I wouldn’t trade it.
  • #10,304
  • Oct 16, 2014 6:11am Oct 16, 2014 6:11am
Quoting Pigh77
Guys this is an initiatic path, take the time that is needed to read all the 500 pages. I have done it twice and now I feel myself confident. You will find a new strategy that fits for yourself, I am sure. Only trying to replicate EURUSDD strategy is the wrong way.
You speak in facts and I see only assumptions and opinions. Dissimilartity.
  • #10,305
  • Oct 16, 2014 6:19am Oct 16, 2014 6:19am
Quoting GU-Night
{quote} Currently 10 consecutive bull bars is already rare in your example isn’t it. In every case, it is not my setup so I wouldn’t trade it.
I think you have a bad definition of rare event.
I recommend the thread "the ultimate truth".
  • #10,306
  • Oct 16, 2014 6:31am Oct 16, 2014 6:31am
Quoting burnssss
{quote} I think you have a bad definition of rare event. I recommend the thread "the ultimate truth".
Good or bad is only perception, I think. The only thing that matters is: do the definitions work for you, or not. I don’t need another thread, my definition of a rare event works fine for me.

If I put up a chart with the recurrence indicator made by K with a nice 'H', I see much more grey than red or blue arrows. That says enough, I guess.
  • #10,307
  • Oct 16, 2014 7:02am Oct 16, 2014 7:02am
Quoting GU-Night
{quote} Good or bad is only perception, I think. The only thing that matters is: do the definitions work for you, or not. I don’t need another thread, my definition of a rare event works fine for me. If I put up a chart with the recurrence indicator made by K with a nice 'H', I see much more grey than red or blue arrows. That says enough, I guess.
Only the results are the correct way of aprove the sistem. If you have 100 trades with 97 operations wins then i believe in your words. Good luck!!
  • #10,308
  • Oct 16, 2014 8:00am Oct 16, 2014 8:00am
Quoting GU-Night
{quote} I agree, it is in my opinion the golden key. Here it is: (post #5945) “I leave you with something to thinK about: it will form the basis of your success with probability and business. Suppose I have a fair coin, we all know that the probability for Head is 50% and that for tail is 50%. Now supposed I tossed the coin 6 times and I got H-H-H-H-H-H after this i tossed the coin once and got H-X-X-X-X-X The X positions are for the remaining 5 tosses. Will you bet that the remaining five positions will be H or be on the safe side and expect...
Notice the words "STILL DEVELOPING" are capitalized. My interpretation is this.The coin toss example does not exactly apply because the previous 6 tosses are known. Therefore, the probabily the next 6 will be all heads or tails is the same as is it was for rolling the first 6 (assuming independence, see gamblers fallacy). The key in EURUSDDs theorem is that a completely transient bar depends on the future and therefore is not totally known. In this case you are dealing with almost the probability of two independent rare events, i.e. P(rare)×P(rare).
  • #10,309
  • Oct 16, 2014 9:04am Oct 16, 2014 9:04am
Quoting burnssss
{quote} Only the results are the correct way of aprove the sistem. If you have 100 trades with 97 operations wins then i believe in your words. Good luck!!
You don't have to believe me that I found value in that coin flip post by Eurusdd, Burnssss.
  • #10,310
  • Oct 16, 2014 9:46am Oct 16, 2014 9:46am
Quoting ephisi
Eurusdds words keep ringing in my head. "DECEPTION IS PART OF THIS GAME" We need to stop analysing like retail traders and start thinking like smart money.
Quoting samaralala
{quote} I understood it as following: You are meant to treat each event as if it is a beginning and not a continuation of previous events. So, just because 6 of them were heeds, 7th must be evaluated independently. This principle would help you in a gambling situations i.e. candles are going against you 6 times but because there were 6 consecutive red candles you still hope that the 7th will be green and your chances of winning are due to increase. In fact more red candles you immediately assume that changes of green are increasing!. So, in case...
Thanks a lot mates. All posts here are very helpful. After i looked at my charts, i think i must do debugging asap, trying to understand the whole process, look at the price behavior to the zone and will concentrate on TRZ first. Other Eurusdd's concepts can be applied based on TRZ, this is very nice, will let price come to TZ. Then trying to create some (may be 1-3) good PLANs for my daily trading, combining what i understand about the concepts, in order to get a Delicious life. Thank you very much for opening my eyes mates ....
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #10,311
  • Oct 16, 2014 9:52am Oct 16, 2014 9:52am
Quoting samaralala
{quote} Anyone shorting now? TP 1.2650
EU has reached 139 pips today, which is bigger than 10 days averages daily range. So, i think it can not be reached today, may be tomorrow / next week ?
But AU & NU must go up to finish its job. Do not sure if it will do it tomorrow .... ?? AU must go to 8774, and NU to 7985

Edit: AU just did it ...
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #10,312
  • Edited 10:30am Oct 16, 2014 10:11am | Edited 10:30am
Quoting pedma
{quote} EU has reached 139 pips today, which is bigger than 10 days averages daily range. So, i think it can not be reached today, may be tomorrow / next week ? But AU & NU must go up to finish its job. Do not sure if it will do it tomorrow .... ?? AU must go to 8774, and NU to 7985 Edit: AU just did it ...
May be i am wrong, but besides having a zone around 7984-7986 , i have another zone (very deep) 7844-7840. Not so sure which one will be reached first, or which one will be expired after passing its lifetime (will become transient forever .....)

If a new comer wants to learn this great system, just read the threads several times, I still do it until today .... You can read Eurusdd's posts , or if you have time, read also good posts written by Vlady, Ephisi, and some other helpfully good traders here .... Every time i read it, i got something new.

Edit: Sorry, forget to write that the zone 7984-7986 / 7844-7840 above is not for EU, but for NU. Looking these 2 days, NU is strong .... (compare to AU)
Similarity can change your life !
  • #10,313
  • Oct 16, 2014 12:10pm Oct 16, 2014 12:10pm
Hey guys, it has been a while. Hope everyone is learning well and doing some profits.
I've been away from this thread for some time, and I still have lots of reading to do in order to catch up.
However, I have noticed an incredible amount of posts/members asking questions that are not acceptable!!
The reasons people like me and many great contributors move away is because alot of people around here just don't want to learn.
If its impossible for you to read and analyse all the information written from page 1 in this thread, then this system/idea is not for you.

All the success I got from this theory was because of information presented here. I read over & over again until I was able to come up with my own ideas and create my own system from the theories presented here. There is no set system with set entries and exists! Please understand that and start using your analyzing skills.

If you doubt that the ideas presented here work, and if you are afraid that spending lots of time and hard work reading and learning will go for nothing .. I am here to prove you wrong.

If you're from the ones that only believe when you see, then I'm here to show you what you could achieve when you work hard and stop nagging
  • #10,314
  • Oct 16, 2014 12:19pm Oct 16, 2014 12:19pm
If you feel inclined to hate or give bad/useless/nonconstructive thoughts, I just need you to read these posts before:
(I bet all your questions have been answered there)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7785885#post7785885

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7785904#post7785904

This is as real & good as it gets. I started this journey live on this thread. Please go back and check my posts from day 1 which is almost a month ago.
If I can do it, I don't see any reason why you can't. Again I repeat, read the above two posts to understand why my returns increased that much.

Keep an eye on the % of profitable trades from day one I started till today.
Probability is more powerful than you thought it was.

Best,
Jay
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  • #10,315
  • Oct 16, 2014 12:31pm Oct 16, 2014 12:31pm
Quoting FX-Jay
If you feel inclined to hate or give bad/useless/nonconstructive thoughts, I just need you to read these posts before: (I bet all your questions have been answered there) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7785885#post7785885 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7785904#post7785904 This is as real & good as it gets. I started this journey live on this thread. Please go back and check my posts from day 1 which is almost a month ago. If I can do it, I don't see any reason why you can't. Again I repeat, read...
what indicator are you using to achieve this fx jay? and are you doing scalping 10 to 20 pips? from there i'll start making my own system
  • #10,316
  • Oct 16, 2014 12:36pm Oct 16, 2014 12:36pm
Quoting FX-Jay
If you feel inclined to hate or give bad/useless/nonconstructive thoughts, I just need you to read these posts before: (I bet all your questions have been answered there) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7785885#post7785885 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7785904#post7785904 This is as real & good as it gets. I started this journey live on this thread. Please go back and check my posts from day 1 which is almost a month ago. If I can do it, I don't see any reason why you can't. Again I repeat, read...
Well done jay congrats
  • #10,317
  • Oct 16, 2014 12:51pm Oct 16, 2014 12:51pm
Quoting FX-Jay
If you feel inclined to hate or give bad/useless/nonconstructive thoughts, I just need you to read these posts before: (I bet all your questions have been answered there) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7785885#post7785885 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7785904#post7785904 This is as real & good as it gets. I started this journey live on this thread. Please go back and check my posts from day 1 which is almost a month ago. If I can do it, I don't see any reason why you can't. Again I repeat, read...
Congratulations Jay! AMAZING RESULTS! GENIUS IMPLEMENTATION!
You're one of a handful that got the gist and grafted hard, and certainly one of the very few to stamp their own creativity into making it their own. A shining example.


=================

For the rest of you reading this.... I wonder how many of you will respond by:

  1. asking for the indicator that he used to achieve this?
  2. asking what "specific" techniques he used?
  3. asking what concepts out of the 1 million that are on here, he used specifically
  4. asking what specific things he did to make it successful
  5. asking
  6. asking
  7. asking

DO this... take a leaf out his shining example and read the posts. Treat this like starting a business. Treat it like you are going to university. Treat it as seriously as you can and you will read and disect everything. And don't give up if for one moment you can't understand a concept.

There are many here willing to help - but it gets REAL TIRED REAL QUICK when we see no effort on people's parts. What is effort? At least learn what the bloody terminology is. At least try to be resourceful... there are INSTRUCTIONS on how to use Forex Factory Thread... including the Attachments Page. At least try and do something... before you ask.

Jay is a tireless worker of his craft. And he's young. When he asked questions, they were actually few but precise and researched. He started from ZERO knowledge. So no one should be under any illusions that it can't be done.

Get inspired! Get Going!

A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #10,318
  • Oct 16, 2014 12:58pm Oct 16, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Congratulations Jay! AMAZING RESULTS! GENIUS IMPLEMENTATION! You're one of a handful that got the gist and grafted hard, and certainly one of the very few to stamp their own creativity into making it their own. A shining example. ================= For the rest of you reading this.... I wonder how many of you will respond by: asking for the indicator that he used to achieve this? asking what "specific" techniques he used? asking what concepts out of the 1 million that are on here, he used specifically asking...
Hey! I have a couple of repeat questions, can you answer them for me? LOL...
  • #10,319
  • Oct 16, 2014 1:46pm Oct 16, 2014 1:46pm
Quoting samaralala
{quote} Anyone shorting now? TP 1.2650
when you were thiking short. smart money had taken profit and reversed the trend
  • #10,320
  • Oct 16, 2014 2:07pm Oct 16, 2014 2:07pm
Since we're sharing: Indicator Similarity EA I wrote gave 624 pts yesterday and 481 pts today running EU, GU, NU, AU, UJ, GJ, AJ, EJ. Today W:L is 683:371 so far. The basis for the EA was the idea of the Stoch/BB and CI similarity from the beginning of the thread. Started looking at some more indis and combos of indis... and ran my stats. I trade anything with >60% expected win using ticks and custom tf bars. Gives lots of losses, but it looks better to the brokers than Jay's 97% track record LOL. Still tweaking, but the data above is from a live acct trading minimum lots - I don't test on demo.

While I would love to see what Jay and some others see about the TZ's, perhaps my brain just isn't wired that way. I did, however, immediately see huge potential with the idea of indicator similarity EURUSDD first proposed, and used it to develop something profitable. Read the thread, and expand on one of the ideas that clicks for you. Run your stats, make your plan, and stick to it - or, write an EA so you can't break your own rules...
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