Trading For Those With a 9-5 Job

Commodities of interest

UsdJpy - on the lookout for a reversal. A Yen futures chart (inverse) is also uploaded as I tend to take advantage of medium term moves with futures rather than forex

Gold is not doing well

For gold to go down meaningfully the stock market must hold up and not be risk averse

Olu

Gold - Bearish idea hanging by a thread.
Risk aversion is in play in the stock markets all over the world - good for gold at the moment
Long term I am still bearish gold.

Retracements all over the place.
$ strength is coming back
Stock markets recovering
Gold falling from highs

Will put on a small gold short

Olu,
I'm feeling a bit uneasy about all this......
Exercise caution everyone....

MPB (Mr Paranoid Ba$tard)

I hear you MPB. loads and loads of caution is required in these markets. The volatility will blow all sane stops. Anyway I could'nt sell Gold yesterday as I was at work and could not wait to get the right scenario. By the way it pays to be paranoid in this business. Perhaps some paranoia will stop us jumping into some wrong trades

Olu

Couldnt do my weekend analysis so I am behind. However I am very bearish grains

Is NzdUsd rolling over? I think so

Dollar Index

Gold

There is also major bearish divergence of price and MACD histogram. Hence my bearishness.

FxcMDollar Index

Gold has fallen to 1233 and is bouncing right now. A break of 1230 will be very supportive to my trade idea

Olu

UsdJpy - I am bearish against the 110 high short to medium term. Longer term this pair is going to the moon

AudUsd - triangle pattern in play

Cocoa finally shows its hand and its bearish

Price is now starting to do some technical damage to the downside. I have also uploaded the weekly chart (intraweek) to show the move down in relation to the surrounding candles. 3000 has been major support for so long and it went with a bang today. I am looking much lower in this commodity. If price collapses in the same manner it rose then there is a whole lot of downside action to be had.

I think down too , but won't take a trade until it shows its hand.

Gold

Dollar Index - I am bullish

The elephant in the room for the trading world yesterday was the announcement/confirmation of the end of QE3. The printing presses (the obvious ones) have been stopped and the markets now have to stand on their own two feet. The growth of the US balance sheet will decelerate which is good for the US$. We saw a massive spike yesterday which marked a turning point for the recent selling in the US$. The Feds were not hawkish about interest rates so the only differential in different currencies where they are on the tightening cycle. Before tightening there has to be the end of QE.

So going forward plain fundamentals point to the US$ strengthening against most currencies especially the euro. It also points to weakening of the euro against the pound as Britain is in a growing phase now while Europe is mired in deeeeeeeep isues that require QE200.

More questions:

1. With the end of QE will deflation bite harde as there is less money to indiscriminately pump into financial instruments?
2. Will bond yields especially in the states rise leading to increasing bond yoelds and earlier interest rates rises?
3. Will the stock market buoyed with all that QE money continue its upmove?

I know we are technical traders and most things are priced into the charts but these issues go deeper than our day to day trading.