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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #14,801
  • Oct 15, 2014 9:34am Oct 15, 2014 9:34am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Great to see you back on FF. Hope you're well.
Thank you hollow, I hope all is well with you too!
  • #14,802
  • Oct 15, 2014 9:38am Oct 15, 2014 9:38am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Thank you hollow, I hope all is well with you too!
Very good thanks.
  • #14,803
  • Oct 15, 2014 9:40am Oct 15, 2014 9:40am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Very good thanks.
Im glad to hear that.
  • #14,804
  • Oct 15, 2014 9:45am Oct 15, 2014 9:45am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Im glad to hear that. How did you progress?
OK thanks - my journey has moved on further and am really enjoying learning to position trade (a la equity millipede) - just merrily trotting along trying to build multiple longer term positions, mainly trading 4h engulfs/outside bars, get them to break even and then see what the market want's to do with them.
  • #14,805
  • Oct 15, 2014 9:49am Oct 15, 2014 9:49am
Hmmm... I don't know about a long just yet. I'm comparing to the huge hit it took yesterday with the news. It might still try to trickle down a bit further, and move sideways for a while before anything meaningful happens to it.

Going to wait a bit until the London/NY cross is over, and see how NY takes it. If nothing is happening then, just going to sit it out, and see if something materializes at the end of the asian session. This still has the potential to go down a bit further. One thing I don't trust, is how banks work situations like this. They like whipping the market back and forth to make back some of the money they lost on the news.
  • #14,806
  • Oct 15, 2014 11:52am Oct 15, 2014 11:52am
Quoting FX-Ray
Decision Points Calendar Week 42 GBP/JPY: (1) 185.00/84.80 (2) 183.40/20 (2) 180.20/00 (4) 178.60/40 (5) 176.40/20 (6) 173.40/20 If yesterday´s low @ 169.90 acts as support next 173.40/20 otherwise next decision point @ 168.00/7.80 Good Luck. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsfrsLxt0l8

Welcome back to FF and to the thread. We all missed you!

Great amount of volatility is coming back to the market, we are fast approaching 168.00. I know it is not good to rationalize everything but not able to see the reason for GBP weakening so much! We have had good data coming out of UK today and bad data out of US. USD a bit down today against majors but not so much against GBP and in fact is back to the same level. EU has been defending it better than GU!
  • #14,807
  • Oct 15, 2014 12:05pm Oct 15, 2014 12:05pm
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Welcome back to FF and to the thread. We all missed you! Great amount of volatility is coming back to the market, we are fast approaching 168.00. I know it is not good to rationalize everything but not able to see the reason for GBP weakening so much! We have had good data coming out of UK today and bad data out of US. USD a bit down today against majors but not so much against GBP and in fact is back to the same level. EU has been defending it better than GU!

GBP and USD go hand in hand for foreign pairs. If one makes an extreme move, so does the other. A very bad USD = bad GBP. Also, the GBP did NOT have good data; AEI only met expectations, and while unemployment was above average, it was overshadowed by the more important claimant count change, which did worse than expected.

The U.K. and U.S. traditionally held a VERY strong social, economic, and military relationship. Say what you will about the American Revolution, but there's very few countries that are in as close relation as the U.S. and U.K. That's why the news for one country is so critical to the status of the other.

In essence, we've had a bad USD and a bad GBP. obviously the GBP will tank. It's one of the reasons why the GBP/JPY is traditionally so volatile.
  • #14,808
  • Oct 15, 2014 12:47pm Oct 15, 2014 12:47pm
Wow, okay, I can't believe what I'm seeing. You can slather whatever words you want over top of it, but this is just pure ridiculousness. Roughly a 250 pip move on GBP news, yet over 300 pip move when there is no GBP news. I don't care how "tied to the hip" these two economies are. No other pair shows this kind of move. Not even a USD pair shows this much alone, yet somehow the G/J drops 300 because of magic?

This move alone might honestly just take me out of forex trading altogether. I understand a lot of what happens is bull$h!t at times, but this is honestly beyond that. When a pair that isn't even involved in a country's news, moves harder than pairs where that country is involved, it's beyond ridiculous. It enters scam territory imo. Not even the GBP/CHF has dropped this much, and that one is the leader in volatility.

Well played bankers. I hope you scum bags enjoy turning my hard earned money into your personal bonuses.
  • #14,809
  • Oct 15, 2014 1:38pm Oct 15, 2014 1:38pm
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Welcome back to FF and to the thread. We all missed you! Great amount of volatility is coming back to the market, we are fast approaching 168.00. I know it is not good to rationalize everything but not able to see the reason for GBP weakening so much! We have had good data coming out of UK today and bad data out of US. USD a bit down today against majors but not so much against GBP and in fact is back to the same level. EU has been defending it better than GU!
Thanks mate.
Fundamentals are up. The reason its going down is sentiment.
  • #14,810
  • Oct 15, 2014 2:11pm Oct 15, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting FX-Ray
Decision Points Calendar Week 42 GBP/JPY: (1) 185.00/84.80 (2) 183.40/20 (2) 180.20/00 (4) 178.60/40 (5) 176.40/20 (6) 173.40/20 If yesterday´s low @ 169.90 acts as support next 173.40/20 otherwise next decision point @ 168.00/7.80 Good Luck. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsfrsLxt0l8
Managed to get long around 168.00
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  • #14,811
  • Oct 15, 2014 2:15pm Oct 15, 2014 2:15pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Thanks mate. Fundamentals are up. The reason its going down is sentiment.
Yes that is true, besides sentiment and USD strength at the minute, I would add the upcoming political unrest that might hit UK soon in the first half of next year. With the latest news of UKIP winning one seat and adding to the unrest, GBP can be in for a further ride but as you rightly pointed fundamentals are up, only issue as with most central banks is vague indications as to the timing of rising the interest rate. Now the question is who is going to ride it first FED or BoE?
  • #14,812
  • Oct 15, 2014 2:18pm Oct 15, 2014 2:18pm
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Yes that is true, besides sentiment and USD strength at the minute, I would add the upcoming political unrest that might hit UK soon in the first half of next year. With the latest news of UKIP winning one seat and adding to the unrest, GBP can be in for a further ride but as you rightly pointed fundamentals are up, only issue as with most central banks is vague indications as to the timing of rising the interest rate. Now the question is who is going to ride it first FED or BoE?
No reason to stress yourself, just wait and see who is going to ride it first. After that look for an entry. Just wait.
  • #14,813
  • Oct 15, 2014 2:25pm Oct 15, 2014 2:25pm
Wb Ray bro ,,good to have you back

Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} No reason to stress yourself, just wait and see who is going to ride it first. After that look for an entry. Just wait.
  • #14,814
  • Oct 15, 2014 2:36pm Oct 15, 2014 2:36pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} No reason to stress yourself, just wait and see who is going to ride it first. After that look for an entry. Just wait.
True. Managed to enter at excellent entry point. Thanx to you.
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  • #14,815
  • Oct 15, 2014 2:47pm Oct 15, 2014 2:47pm
Quoting workingforex
{quote} True. Managed to enter at excellent entry point. Thanx to you. {image}
Impressive, didnt expect someone to get in there. Well done and good luck, you know the targets.
(http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post7802732)
  • #14,816
  • Oct 15, 2014 5:16pm Oct 15, 2014 5:16pm
Quoting FX-Ray
Decision Points Calendar Week 42 GBP/JPY: (1) 185.00/84.80 (2) 183.40/20 (2) 180.20/00 (4) 178.60/40 (5) 176.40/20 (6) 173.40/20 If yesterday´s low @ 169.90 acts as support next 173.40/20 otherwise next decision point @ 168.00/7.80 Good Luck. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsfrsLxt0l8
Look who finally show up after so many months !!!! Glad you are back, looking forward to some enlightenment.... much appreciated !!!
  • #14,817
  • Oct 15, 2014 5:26pm Oct 15, 2014 5:26pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Triangle top is now approaching at 170.5. The centre is the next important one - at 170.3. Below there, it's bearish again.
Very enlightening post here... optimum profit targets are like obstacles traders face.
  • #14,818
  • Edited 9:05pm Oct 15, 2014 7:49pm | Edited 9:05pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Very enlightening post here... optimum profit targets are like obstacles traders face.
The other important thing to also point out was the timing of that move, which was a big pointer. It occurred late in the Asian session and persisted through the European open. With very few exceptions, that is the exact time of day when moves that appear to be breaking out are normally "corrections". All too often I've seen folks chasing them and getting enthused - I used to also try to follow them and end up losing out big time. When such a move occurs in that time window, I would advise just watching it carefully.

One very final comment on targets, with regard to triangles. From Jan 2009 to Oct 2012 GJ was in a large triangle, with a height of 4650 pips. It began to break out at about 128.2 on or about Oct 21. Applying the triangle height to the breakout level gives us 128.2 + 46.5 equals 174.7, which I think is kind of close to where it got for most of the last few months. It is that 4650 number that, extrapolated by fib multipliers such as 1.12, 1.236, 1.38, 1.618 etc also give clues as to possible future upside targets. eg 1.12 multiplier takes it to 180.3 and so on.
  • #14,819
  • Oct 15, 2014 8:24pm Oct 15, 2014 8:24pm
This was also a great one @ MPT

169.80 still holds.


Quoting Mpt
Welcome back FX-Ray. 169.8 holds for now. Next up under 168.9 would be 168. Below there, it may head for 166 and our old friend 163.9
  • #14,820
  • Oct 15, 2014 11:03pm Oct 15, 2014 11:03pm
Yep, that downmove was under 330 pips.so......
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