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USD/RUB

  • #101
  • Oct 13, 2014 11:22am Oct 13, 2014 11:22am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Currency may experience modest dip in light of as yet unverified Russian troop pullback ... . http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/12/world/...html?hpt=wo_c2
Troop pullback of no effect on currency ... . Still trading at top of band.

I'm still sticking in with my short at 39.75 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #102
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:15pm Oct 13, 2014 12:15pm
Russian Central Bank admits defeat. Could be a lot more Ruble weakness. However, with that said, seeing as the rate makes new lows (highs USD/RUB) almost everyday and with headlines like these, I think we're very due for a bounce.

Short 40.0011 (avg.).



http://www.businessinsider.com/russi...-ruble-2014-10
  • #103
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:51pm Oct 13, 2014 12:51pm
Quoting thadakman
Russian Central Bank admits defeat. Could be a lot more Ruble weakness. However, with that said, seeing as the rate makes new lows (highs USD/RUB) almost everyday and with headlines like these, I think we're very due for a bounce. Short 40.0011 (avg.). http://www.businessinsider.com/russi...-ruble-2014-10
Pretty much ... . They'll just keep moving the band up until they absolutely have to raise interest rates ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #104
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:17pm Oct 13, 2014 2:17pm
What's your target on this btw ZebraSquirl? Do you revise as it makes new highs? For example, if we didn't break 40 I can see a target of 36; but now with a breach and if we go 42, I'll only be targeting 38.
  • #105
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:35pm Oct 13, 2014 2:35pm
Quoting thadakman
What's your target on this btw ZebraSquirl? Do you revise as it makes new highs? For example, if we didn't break 40 I can see a target of 36; but now with a breach and if we go 42, I'll only be targeting 38.
38.204 to be exact ... . A little bit of resistance there ... . I've moved it back and forth a couple of times, but told myself to just be patient. Swap is good, and I don't have a huge position ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #106
  • Oct 14, 2014 9:35am Oct 14, 2014 9:35am
Another Day another new low for the Ruble. I'm seeing price at 40.86. Adding a little here, have a small position and avg price of 40.15 now. Any dip below 40 and I'm in profit. You adding at all ZebraSquirl?

Latest research I've been doing sees the USD/RUB at maybe 42 if oil keeps weakening. I don't see much more downside for the RUB.
  • #107
  • Oct 14, 2014 10:00am Oct 14, 2014 10:00am
Quoting thadakman
Another Day another new low for the Ruble. I'm seeing price at 40.86. Adding a little here, have a small position and avg price of 40.15 now. Any dip below 40 and I'm in profit. You adding at all ZebraSquirl? Latest research I've been doing sees the USD/RUB at maybe 42 if oil keeps weakening. I don't see much more downside for the RUB.
You can see how I added several small positions at the top of the previous range. Now that it has broken out of that range, I'm going to wait for it to establish a new range before adding (which could naturally be some time):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD:RUB Range.jpg Size: 221 KB


My net position (which is all of 4K, microscopic by most standards) is currently at 39.756, so I am fine with waiting. In the mean time, I will let the positive swap accrue.

Patience ... patience ... patience ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #108
  • Oct 14, 2014 5:59pm Oct 14, 2014 5:59pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} You can see how I added several small positions at the top of the previous range. Now that it has broken out of that range, I'm going to wait for it to establish a new range before adding (which could naturally be some time): {image} My net position (which is all of 4K, microscopic by most standards) is currently at 39.756, so I am fine with waiting. In the mean time, I will let the positive swap accrue. Patience ... patience ... patience ... .
Well, it keeps going and going and going ... . Now at 41+ on the ask side.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #109
  • Oct 14, 2014 10:11pm Oct 14, 2014 10:11pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Well, it keeps going and going and going ... . Now at 41+ on the ask side.
First leg entered on 9/29, current take profit is at 38.225 (tweaked it a touch from 38.204) ... . Let's see how long I can hold on ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #110
  • Oct 15, 2014 5:22pm Oct 15, 2014 5:22pm
fake down or really going down ?
  • #111
  • Oct 15, 2014 5:42pm Oct 15, 2014 5:42pm
Quoting surfeur
fake down or really going down ?
I think the dollar weakness is likely to be temporary, but unsure ... . U.S. equities markets are extremely volatile on the Greenback side of the equation, which may lead to some flight out out the dollar.

As far as Ruble strength/weakness is concerned, oil was again down today (Brent Crude (Nov. 14 contract): -1.48%/WTI (Nov. 14 contract) -.81% as of 18:00 EST). http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/, which isn't good for Ruble strength.

That being said, my short position in the pair is the one pair that didn't worsen today, so I guess that's worth a happy face.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #112
  • Oct 15, 2014 5:49pm Oct 15, 2014 5:49pm
It can also have more to do with the RCB's "Dollar-Auction Plan," which is a form of indirect intervention. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...14-months.html

I'm not sure how excited to get about this; they're saying that they're going to start this program in "about a month."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #113
  • Oct 19, 2014 9:46pm Oct 19, 2014 9:46pm
Stubbornly hanging on to the 41 handle (at least on the ask side ... ).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #114
  • Oct 20, 2014 8:39am Oct 20, 2014 8:39am
almost new high.
is it possible that intervention could really prevent a big depreciation? why not try rate hike instead?
no other killers to me but emotion
  • #115
  • Oct 20, 2014 5:03pm Oct 20, 2014 5:03pm
Quoting Mr Mao
almost new high. is it possible that intervention could really prevent a big depreciation? why not try rate hike instead?
There is a possibility of rate hike toward the end of the month ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #116
  • Oct 21, 2014 5:23pm Oct 21, 2014 5:23pm
Looks to be leveling off a bit ... . Going to add a leg if price strikes 41.141 (which appears to last week's high on the bid side) ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #117
  • Oct 22, 2014 1:17am Oct 22, 2014 1:17am
Sorry guys .
I was out celebrating with my grandma the historical minimums for Ruble. My grandma got drunk as she celebrated her uncanny accuracy. She bought USD at 34 roubles few months back . Now she started looking for a reason to exit. I am ashamed of my prognosis about ruble . During historical event you need to forget about technical analysis. Further direction from here is anybody's guess.
  • #118
  • Oct 22, 2014 11:25am Oct 22, 2014 11:25am
aie aie new high new high always always
  • #119
  • Oct 22, 2014 10:15pm Oct 22, 2014 10:15pm
i guess the bulls should push it to 43.XX
no other killers to me but emotion
  • #120
  • Oct 22, 2014 10:35pm Oct 22, 2014 10:35pm
Quoting Mr Mao
i guess the bulls should push it to 43.XX
Bulls still firmly in control ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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