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  • Post #341
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  • Oct 10, 2014 4:49am Oct 10, 2014 4:49am
  •  smikester
  • Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Member | 8,618 Posts
Quoting _BBKing_
Disliked
Hi folks missing since a looooooong time! don't even remember when was last time i came over FF. well, i had many reasons for that! now everything is (almost) accomplished and I'm trying to give a serious look on some charts. For the moment I'm wondering how much the EUR CHF will keep stable between 1.20 and 1.22: could be one year or one month! {image}
Ignored
Ooops! I missed your post. Luckily the usual suspects kept the thread alive. Welcome back and let's see what ideas you have.
Gone to a better place
  • Post #342
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  • Oct 10, 2014 8:19am Oct 10, 2014 8:19am
  •  Forexcube
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Member | 27,245 Posts
Quoting smikester
Disliked
{quote} It was a good trade. I see what I did there and must ask you to forgive me - I did not mean to steal your glory. Your influence has caused me to revisit my Eur/Gbp analysis and I think if we see a good daily close above .7913 then I will be on the bullish side with you. What I wanted to ask you is this. Your expected worst draw down does not imply a very good R : R? Are you really going to trade this?
Ignored
Hi smikester!
Oh sorry it's a mistake here:
I didn't mean that you steal my glory. Oh really not!
We are all here to publish our investments for each other & I found it funny or exhilarating that one FF member (you) has remembered at p.1, #2 after one year and has to refer to. Absolutely great!

EURGBP:
here I like to go as early as I can into the market often with 1/2 of my order and wait. If the market price will going furhter in the opposed direction I go into the market again with 1/2.
The R:R isn't really good, of course, but can you show me successfull traders who did follow the right R:R fundamentals which all we know here from the forex literature?...& I didn't expect the 1:2 rule when I make investments in an extremly highly speculative risky market. The weekly & monthly candles seems too nervous, flustered, edgy for deducing or extrapolate any sanitary views with regard to the 1:2 rules or so IMO.
When I scalp it could be also 10:1, say 10 times risk to one time profit. The question seems for me more if "I have the means" (enough funding) or "I can't afford it". That's my way at any rate. If so I'm happy and content with myself. I know that I trade on a very special kind the forexmarket.

Statistically unproven:
Risk Reward idea seems more a literal misleading concept initiating from those people who want your money. It isn't empirical evident & reliable. From a statistical point of view it's unproven.
Kindest regards
FXcube
  • Post #343
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  • Oct 10, 2014 8:24am Oct 10, 2014 8:24am
  •  Forexcube
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Member | 27,245 Posts
Quoting smikester
Disliked
{quote} ... What I wanted to ask you is this. Your expected worst draw down does not imply a very good R : R? Are you really going to trade this?
Ignored
Yes!
FXcube
  • Post #344
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  • Oct 10, 2014 9:19am Oct 10, 2014 9:19am
  •  Razor_trader
  • Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Getting closer to ...... | 1,787 Posts
Quoting Forexcube
Disliked
{quote} +50% profit within 13 months is not so bad IMO! No bank will give you this interest per anno. FXcube
Ignored
So very true
  • Post #345
  • Quote
  • Oct 10, 2014 9:34am Oct 10, 2014 9:34am
  •  Razor_trader
  • Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Getting closer to ...... | 1,787 Posts
Quoting Forexcube
Disliked
{quote} Statistically unproven: Risk Reward idea seems more a literal misleading concept initiating from those people who want your money. It isn't empirical evident & reliable. From a statistical point of view it's unproven. Kindest regards FXcube
Ignored
Something I have come to notice more and more lately is that traders do not take good setups because there isn't enough reward against risk, or they use a SL placement based on nothing more than it has to be here to achieve a certain R/R outcome.

trades should be taken because they meet the requirements of your plan.

RT
  • Post #346
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  • Oct 10, 2014 9:45am Oct 10, 2014 9:45am
  •  Forexcube
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Member | 27,245 Posts
Quoting Razor_trader
Disliked
{quote} Something I have come to notice more and more lately is that traders do not take good setups because there isn't enough reward against risk, or they use a SL placement based on nothing more than it has to be here to achieve a certain R/R outcome. trades should be taken because they meet the requirements of your plan. RT
Ignored


My sentiments exactly.
FXcube
  • Post #347
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  • Oct 11, 2014 5:24am Oct 11, 2014 5:24am
  •  _BBKing_
  • Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 8,162 Posts
Quoting smikester
Disliked
I like long Usd/Chf around here (.9500) and short Eur/Usd (1.28) - both big levels now being retested. There should be a bounce at these levels, at least, allowing for a safe entry, but I consider this to be a longer term trade, months. Targets? Parity for the former, initially, and 1.2 for the latter. Good luck. (Going to put this post in my diary with monthly repeats) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...90#post7790890 BB King, my old friend, we have not seen you here for a while?
Ignored



yep! i was really busy in last months! well.. i'm still busy will try to slowly recover my trading activities and daily-weekly trades is the way that better fits with all the other stuff, since i cannot even open a chart during the day

see ya soon
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  • Post #348
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  • Oct 11, 2014 5:58am Oct 11, 2014 5:58am
  •  albchr
  • Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Member | 25,480 Posts
Quoting _BBKing_
Disliked
{quote} yep! i was really busy in last months! well.. i'm still busy will try to slowly recover my trading activities and daily-weekly trades is the way that better fits with all the other stuff, since i cannot even open a chart during the day see ya soon
Ignored
WOW!! BB ... Mr. King! You've been missed my friend. So glad to see you inching your way back in here. Hope all is well brother.

Chris
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • Post #349
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  • Oct 13, 2014 7:23am Oct 13, 2014 7:23am
  •  vincentprice
  • Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Nil Desperandum | 389 Posts
NZD/USD - More downside expected in the mid term.

Recent rejection of the monthly pivot has left price in temporary consolidation.

Chart highlights zones to load short if a pullback occurs from current levels.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: NZDUSDFXFDaily.png
Size: 47 KB
Nil desperandum
  • Post #350
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  • Oct 15, 2014 5:32pm Oct 15, 2014 5:32pm
  •  _BBKing_
  • Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 8,162 Posts
Quoting albchr
Disliked
{quote} WOW!! BB ... Mr. King! You've been missed my friend. So glad to see you inching your way back in here. Hope all is well brother. Chris
Ignored
long time yep! really missing those old days !!
everything going perfect here, still really busy have no time to watch charts. i mean... watching seriously! just trying some shy attempts from time to time
i definetly need some weekly trades, problem is that apparently I'm the right guy in the wrong place feeling too late for some setups, too early for some other. lol. trading

and fukyeh i was missing these icons
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  • Post #351
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  • Oct 15, 2014 5:35pm Oct 15, 2014 5:35pm
  •  _BBKing_
  • Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 8,162 Posts
Quoting vincentprice
Disliked
NZD/USD - More downside expected in the mid term. Recent rejection of the monthly pivot has left price in temporary consolidation. Chart highlights zones to load short if a pullback occurs from current levels. {image}
Ignored
hi
i'm also looking on this! and also see more downside possible after some "pullbacks".

was just trying to define some levels.

your post simplified my life , thank you
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  • Post #352
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  • Oct 15, 2014 5:43pm Oct 15, 2014 5:43pm
  •  _BBKing_
  • Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 8,162 Posts
i'm quite interested in looking for a long position in GBP NZD
weekly shows interesting area around 2.0 but my favorite comes bit lower into blue rectangle near 1.99lo 1.98hi.
in case of further drop, also the 1.96 comes tasti.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Chart_GBP_NZD_Weekly_snapshot.png
Size: 12 KB
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  • Post #353
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  • Oct 15, 2014 6:15pm Oct 15, 2014 6:15pm
  •  vincentprice
  • Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Nil Desperandum | 389 Posts
Quoting _BBKing_
Disliked
i'm quite interested in looking for a long position in GBP NZD weekly shows interesting area around 2.0 but my favorite comes bit lower into blue rectangle near 1.99lo 1.98hi. in case of further drop, also the 1.96 comes tasti. {image}
Ignored
I think there is a good chance of these levels acting as support with price making a second attack on the 2.075 23.6% Fib retrace in the near term. Volatility is rising so penetration into the supply zone could easily go as far as 1.95 -1.96. Ultimately I think chances are this supply zone will hold and we will see new highs in the mid term.

I have transferred my focus to the GBP/USD since RBZ has upped the exchange rate, mid term positions are costing more to hold when short on the NZD.
Nil desperandum
1
  • Post #354
  • Quote
  • Edited at 1:41am Oct 16, 2014 1:29am | Edited at 1:41am
  •  _BBKing_
  • Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 8,162 Posts
Quoting vincentprice
Disliked
{quote} I think there is a good chance of these levels acting as support with price making a second attack on the 2.075 23.6% Fib retrace in the near term. Volatility is rising so penetration into the supply zone could easily go as far as 1.95 -1.96. Ultimately I think chances are this supply zone will hold and we will see new highs in the mid term. I have transferred my focus to the GBP/USD since RBZ has upped the exchange rate, mid term positions are costing more to hold when short on the NZD.
Ignored
well I didn't think about rates since I'm not yet trading important amounts.
Here's my whole view about this cross :
the main weekly picture shows interesting potential for market to keep buying. At the moment the 2.1 came as strong bearish pullback, but I believe it will be revisited in next months so eventually a target can be 2.06-07
looking at weekly TF with bit zoom out also 2.25 appears as old sup/res, and this becomes really interesting to me!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: Chart_GBP_NZD_Weekly_snapshot.png
Size: 21 KB


as always problems are on entry: 2.0 did some bounces yesterday but not so much and still price in DailyTF is going down so I think the 1.98 and 1.97 areas will be visited quite soon.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: Chart_GBP_NZD_Daily_snapshot.png
Size: 14 KB


Meanwhile the NZD USD dailyTF shows possible attempt to the nearest level 0.80-0.81

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Name: Chart_NZD_USD_Daily_snapshot.png
Size: 9 KB


And Cable ... well... I will not be surprised to see 1.58 - 1.575 visited before any important bounce back

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: Chart_GBP_USD_Daily_snapshot.png
Size: 13 KB


Correlating all these factors together, the 1.96 area in GBP NZD is really possible and eventually it will come together with Kiwi in resistance and cable in support! Could be a nice 400 to 700 pips run from 1.96 to 2.0 and 2.03!

Last but not least, in quarterly the whole 1.96 - 1.99 area appears to me as a kind of "re-test" where if demand will come, we can see a strong push upward in this+next quarter

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: Chart_GBP_NZD_3 Months_snapshot.png
Size: 8 KB
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  • Post #355
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  • Oct 23, 2014 5:57am Oct 23, 2014 5:57am
  •  smikester
  • Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Member | 8,618 Posts
Quoting vincentprice
Disliked
NZD/USD - More downside expected in the mid term. Recent rejection of the monthly pivot has left price in temporary consolidation. Chart highlights zones to load short if a pullback occurs from current levels. {image}
Ignored
Thanks for your charts and keeping this thread alive. I see a bear flag on the daily with a technical target of .6600 - thereabouts. Looking for the break of .7683 for this to play out.
Gone to a better place
  • Post #356
  • Quote
  • Oct 23, 2014 6:02am Oct 23, 2014 6:02am
  •  smikester
  • Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Member | 8,618 Posts
Quoting Forexcube
Disliked
{quote} Hi smikester!
Ignored
Your analysis of Eur/Gbp opened my eyes and so I offer the following:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: analysiseurgbp141023d1.JPG
Size: 116 KB

This daily chart shows us we are using July lows as support and the possible head and shoulders formation forming.

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Name: analysiseurgbp141023h1.JPG
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This hourly chart shows a rejection of the 61.8% short term retrace and a trend line break.
Gone to a better place
  • Post #357
  • Quote
  • Oct 31, 2014 2:07pm Oct 31, 2014 2:07pm
  •  _BBKing_
  • Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 8,162 Posts
GBP NZD

this monthly candle tells me something to think about quite interested.
important bounces in 2.0 and 2.04 area.
no bullish close.
interested in waiting for market to revist somewhere around 2.04 and strike up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: Chart_GBP_NZD_Monthly_snapshot.png
Size: 19 KB


enventually a failure can cause to wait next quarter. no worries, looking the big picture there is still a lot to get on both sides!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: 1Chart_GBP_NZD_Monthly_snapshot.png
Size: 8 KB
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  • Post #358
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  • Nov 18, 2014 5:54pm Nov 18, 2014 5:54pm
  •  _BBKing_
  • Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 8,162 Posts
GBP NZD

1.95 - 2.00 range deserves attention for possible good opp on both sides up-down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Chart_GBP_NZD_Daily_snapshot.png
Size: 12 KB
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  • Post #359
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  • Edited at 4:20pm Dec 8, 2014 4:07pm | Edited at 4:20pm
  •  _BBKing_
  • Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 8,162 Posts
GBP AUD

MONTHLY setup is actually confirming main QUARTERLY slower ones

MN
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: Chart_GBP_AUD_Monthly_snapshot.png
Size: 6 KB


3MN
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: Chart_GBP_AUD_3 Months_snapshot.png
Size: 6 KB


The 1.95 looks tasty as target area for bulls.
I would keep looking to buy / increase positions during next 2 months or so.
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  • Post #360
  • Quote
  • Dec 18, 2014 3:54pm Dec 18, 2014 3:54pm
  •  _BBKing_
  • Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 8,162 Posts
GBP AUD

I closed my long positions in this cross. Price is clearly stuck around an important resistance area as seen in monthly chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: Chart_GBP_AUD_Monthly_snapshot.png
Size: 5 KB


Meanwhile the AUD USD is near a strong key level...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: Chart_AUD_USD_Monthly_snapshot.png
Size: 6 KB


And the GBP USD still unable to breakout this downtrend coming from tops, tho there are some signs of price bouncing in 1.55-1.56. A small buy is running but have not much confidence atm.. can be better in 2015.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: Chart_GBP_USD_Daily_snapshot.png
Size: 18 KB


Furthermore markets around xmas are not usually nice to trade. Anyway got a great 1.82 (avg entry) ---> 1.92 (avg exit) shot!

Will be looking interested soon in CHF after the SNB spotted for negative rates could be some opp. Already running an old EUR CHF long positions (slightly positive now) and will be checking for an entry in GBP CHF (my favorite cross) since I missed the 1.51 daily "take off" cande

Will update soon.
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