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Medium & Long Term ONLY

  • #321
  • Sep 28, 2014 4:22pm Sep 28, 2014 4:22pm
Preparation for GBP/USD trend continuation, first target being the 1.67 untested supply zone.

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Nil desperandum
  • #322
  • Sep 28, 2014 6:34pm Sep 28, 2014 6:34pm
Here is my take on the AUD/USD long-term trend.

Good Luck!

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  • #323
  • Sep 28, 2014 7:33pm Sep 28, 2014 7:33pm
Quoting vincentprice
Preparation for GBP/USD trend continuation, first target being the 1.67 untested supply zone. {image}
I enter long at 1.6235, but i don't feel very confortable with it (long-term).

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  • #324
  • Sep 28, 2014 7:44pm Sep 28, 2014 7:44pm
This, on the other hand.. I'm confortable buying long term.

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  • #325
  • Sep 28, 2014 8:00pm Sep 28, 2014 8:00pm
Quoting prtrading
Here is my take on the AUD/USD long-term trend. Good Luck! {image}
I regret closing my short position @ .9420 on April 05. Let's see if re-bound to enter short.
  • #326
  • Sep 29, 2014 5:27pm Sep 29, 2014 5:27pm
Quoting prtrading
Here is my take on the AUD/USD long-term trend. Good Luck! {image}
The 50% Fib at approx 0.8 also quoted by the reserve bank as a target exchange rate will offer considerable support. Below this the mega demand zone at 0.72 could well be a show stopper to any downtrend. I have a slight bearish sentiment on the AU and will be watching the reserve bank releases/ employment numbers/ trade deficit and rate speculation for further insights.

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Nil desperandum
  • #327
  • Sep 29, 2014 5:44pm Sep 29, 2014 5:44pm
EUR/USD

The EUR pairings have been a thorn in my side this year. The eco-rot in the Eurozone has persisted for longer than I anticipated which has left me sitting on positions that at times moved well into the red.

EUR/USD is approaching an untested demand zone which should be good for a 1-2 week 200pip bounce, let's see. . .

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Nil desperandum
  • #328
  • Sep 29, 2014 6:18pm Sep 29, 2014 6:18pm
thanks for the very good work i´ve been learning a lot from you vicent .
Scalping
  • #329
  • Oct 1, 2014 4:24pm Oct 1, 2014 4:24pm
Quoting guguxpto
thanks for the very good work i´ve been learning a lot from you vicent .
Good stuff. I was watching the tumbleweed blowing over the thread for a while.

Let see if we can walk through some killer 500+ pip trades when the opportunities arise.
Nil desperandum
  • #330
  • Oct 1, 2014 4:38pm Oct 1, 2014 4:38pm
Howdy - didn't know about this thread & thought I'd stop by, as I trade longer tf's sometimes. Mostly I trade options from multiple IRA accounts. I don't trade fx much anymore (anyway I can't trade leveraged spot fx from the IRA's as they are set up) but I figured eur/usd would fall through Jackson Hole and get to <$1.25 this year. It has dropped faster than I expected. I just bought calls on EUO back around the first of Sept. when E/U was $1.31 or so, as I recall. Paid $0.18, was actually looking to close those at $0.75 m/l, almost got it today.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #331
  • Oct 1, 2014 4:47pm Oct 1, 2014 4:47pm
Another options trade I am in (as of today) is on EWZ. Front month options on EWZ have i.v. about 10% higher than later months - there are general elections in Brazil this weekend and after those are over I'd expect the front month i.v. to fall sharply. So I am playing this Nov/Jan $50 calls calendar spread for a small debit ($0.15 debit today). EWZ has been falling steadily and if it falls into Friday the same spread on $45 calls may have a low enough debit also.

The most I could lose on the $50 spread is $0.15 (that's $0.15/share - I might do 100 contracts which would let me play on 10,000 shares) and I could end up gaining 20x that or more, depending on how well I manage the trade, and what the underlying does.

This trade on EWZ will be there for the taking I expect through Friday...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #332
  • Oct 6, 2014 2:31pm Oct 6, 2014 2:31pm
Quoting vincentprice
EUR/USD The EUR pairings have been a thorn in my side this year. The eco-rot in the Eurozone has persisted for longer than I anticipated which has left me sitting on positions that at times moved well into the red. EUR/USD is approaching an untested demand zone which should be good for a 1-2 week 200pip bounce, let's see. . . {image}
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EUR/USD has accumulated some buyers at the demand zone and rallied 140pips or so. The bounce occurred 20pips above my entry price leaving me out of the action here. If I were in this position I would be looking for 100pips more and out.

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Nil desperandum
  • #333
  • Oct 8, 2014 2:28pm Oct 8, 2014 2:28pm
Quoting vincentprice
{quote} {image} EUR/USD has accumulated some buyers at the demand zone and rallied 140pips or so. The bounce occurred 20pips above my entry price leaving me out of the action here. If I were in this position I would be looking for 100pips more and out. {image}
Job done, 3 day move 200+pips. More downward pressure very likely to break this demand zone.
Nil desperandum
  • #334
  • Oct 8, 2014 6:59pm Oct 8, 2014 6:59pm
Hi folks
missing since a looooooong time! don't even remember when was last time i came over FF.
well, i had many reasons for that!
now everything is (almost) accomplished and I'm trying to give a serious look on some charts.

For the moment I'm wondering how much the EUR CHF will keep stable between 1.20 and 1.22: could be one year or one month!
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90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #335
  • Oct 8, 2014 7:10pm Oct 8, 2014 7:10pm
Quoting Forexcube
usdchf, weekly, long @ 0.9105, tp ~@ 0.965 is in my favor actual. indicators? e.g. cci14, bottom up e.g. 10'000.-$ Account, 1 Lot. maximal expected drawdown: -50% (~0.86)

I love that the first post of this thread has come to fruition... took a little over a year, but it happened \m/
  • #336
  • Oct 9, 2014 9:21am Oct 9, 2014 9:21am
I like long Usd/Chf around here (.9500) and short Eur/Usd (1.28) - both big levels now being retested. There should be a bounce at these levels, at least, allowing for a safe entry, but I consider this to be a longer term trade, months. Targets? Parity for the former, initially, and 1.2 for the latter. Good luck.

(Going to put this post in my diary with monthly repeats) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...90#post7790890

BB King, my old friend, we have not seen you here for a while?
Gone to a better place
  • #337
  • Oct 9, 2014 12:42pm Oct 9, 2014 12:42pm
Quoting Forexcube
usdchf, weekly, long @ 0.9105, tp ~@ 0.965 is in my favor actual. indicators? e.g. cci14, bottom up e.g. 10'000.-$ Account, 1 Lot. maximal expected drawdown: -50% (~0.86)
#2

The target was fulfilled.
Profit: +545 Pips (+50%)
(Drawdown: L 0.86985, 2014.03.01, Monthly)
FXcube

USDCHF, Weekly, 2014 October 09
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  • #338
  • Oct 9, 2014 1:03pm Oct 9, 2014 1:03pm
EURGBP, Monthly, 2014 October 09
10'000.-$ Account, 0.5 Lot.
Long @ 0.7866, Target @ 0.8750
Expected worst drawdown: 0.6520
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  • #339
  • Edited 1:18pm Oct 9, 2014 1:05pm | Edited 1:18pm
Quoting InnerSong
{quote} I love that the first post of this thread has come to fruition... took a little over a year, but it happened \m/
+50% profit within 13 months is not so bad IMO! No bank will give you this interest per anno.
FXcube
  • #340
  • Oct 10, 2014 3:44am Oct 10, 2014 3:44am
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} +50% profit within 13 months is not so bad IMO! No bank will give you this interest per anno. FXcube
It was a good trade. I see what I did there and must ask you to forgive me - I did not mean to steal your glory. Your influence has caused me to revisit my Eur/Gbp analysis and I think if we see a good daily close above .7913 then I will be on the bullish side with you. What I wanted to ask you is this. Your expected worst draw down does not imply a very good R : R? Are you really going to trade this?
Gone to a better place
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