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NZD/USD

  • #8,001
  • Edited 3:51am Oct 13, 2014 2:44am | Edited 3:51am
Prediction :
NZ GDT Price Index on WED 15OCT (2nd data of this month) may be less negative (or even positive) than the 1st data of this month (-7.3).
as AUG2014 and SEP2014 (data out twice a month)
the 1st data for the above months are more negative
and then the 2nd data are less negative and zero.

so I assume the continuous trend for this month 2nd data.

With this prediction, refer to my last post's chart, if repeating cycle as it, the longest rise candle will be the time around the GDT Price Index data out or NZ ANZ consumer confidence m/m or US jobless claims.
  • #8,002
  • Oct 13, 2014 9:51am Oct 13, 2014 9:51am
Stop to breakeven on large divergence.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH1c.png Size: 65 KB
  • #8,003
  • Edited 2:54pm Oct 13, 2014 2:06pm | Edited 2:54pm
Quoting roger44
{image} The above chart is 1 hour chart for NZD/USD Where Yellow circles marked for reference only (Now HKT15:00 13OCT2014 : last hour candle) where the current peak is a reduced version of 7OCT2014 (Peak-shape). Seem to be the combination of candles HKT14:00 and HKT15:00 13OCT2014(Today) is equal to the candle HK8:00 7OCT2014. Today may be possible to get the minimum of this week (this five days).
Some Updates for adjustments :
Attached Image

The above chart is 1 hour chart for NZD/USD
where
Yellow circles are marked for 1st set of corresponding positions.
lightblue circles are marked for 2nd set of corresponding positions.
vertical lines are marked for the starting points of 2 sets of repeating cycles (cycle number use purple color marked).

Attached Image

The above chart is 1 hour chart for NZD/USD with 2 channel sets (marked with purple boundary lines and orange lines for showing the reduced size of the current wave width comparing with that of cycle1).
The channel widths (bounded by purple lines) are near the same for both cycles.
  • #8,004
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:39pm Oct 13, 2014 2:39pm
Gidday NZ

Out off my longs went short

an it keeps climbing

How smart is that

Thinking either pend short above etc an wait 0.80
  • #8,005
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:43pm Oct 13, 2014 2:43pm
Quoting eliteincome
Gidday NZ Out off my longs went short an it keeps climbing How smart is that Thinking either pend short above etc an wait 0.80
0.7939? might be answer?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #8,006
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:54pm Oct 13, 2014 2:54pm
Or 7900 might be the high hurdle.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #8,007
  • Oct 13, 2014 3:11pm Oct 13, 2014 3:11pm
I have just read a news :
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/nz...194400987.html

It wrote :
~
"We got a little bit of a mini-boost from the Chinese trade data yesterday which showed that Chinese imports are up so that's a glimmer of hope that Chinese domestic demand is picking up," said Peter Cavanaugh, client advisor at Bancorp Treasury Services. "There's been nothing happening internationally and we have had quite a volatile period so we occasionally get this day or three where the markets are contemplating their navels and waiting for what happens. It may be a welcome respite."
~

Good for NZD!
  • #8,008
  • Oct 13, 2014 8:41pm Oct 13, 2014 8:41pm
breaking past 0.79
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,009
  • Edited Oct 14, 2014 2:46am Oct 13, 2014 10:26pm | Edited Oct 14, 2014 2:46am
For the corresponding timing of today (see 1 hour candle chart, combined 2-to-1 candle action),
that was THURS 9OCT2014 as that is thursday,
it got US jobless claims to drop for finishing the rise.

But for current situation,
tomorrow (WED 15OCT2014) got NZ GDT Price m/m (2nd data of this month),
Thurs 16OCT2014 got US jobless claims and also NZ ANZ consumer confidence m/m.
A lot of people's speeches may vary NZD level.

*************
Now (HKT12:56), NZD/AUD=0.8975 is dropping.

*************
Now (HKT13:36), I have just read a news.
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/nz...043600124.html

It wrote :
~
Speizer said the kiwi may reach as high as 79.75 US cents in the next 24 hours and would find support if it fell to around 78.40-78.60 cents. There is a risk the kiwi will have a bigger bounce in the next few weeks on the prospects of weaker-than-expected US data, he said.
~

If max at 0.7975 (he said), I will sell at about 0.7960 (as the last week max 0.79730).

*************
Now (HKT15:44), for updates and adjustments :

For 1 hour candle chart (now candle HKT15:00 14OCT2014) ,
the corresponding time candle HKT9:00 8OCT2014.

*************
  • #8,010
  • Oct 14, 2014 7:17am Oct 14, 2014 7:17am
NZDUSD can continue maintaining the 0.7830 - 0.7900 range; either side break out can become important for determining near-term moves.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH1.png Size: 39 KB
  • #8,011
  • Oct 14, 2014 7:14pm Oct 14, 2014 7:14pm
NZD drops as hooking effect by AUD drop as NZD/AUS is still equal to about 0.8990. Guy Debelle talked AUD down on TUES and he will talk again on THURS!
  • #8,012
  • Oct 14, 2014 7:26pm Oct 14, 2014 7:26pm
Quoting roger44
NZD drops as hooking effect by AUD drop as NZD/AUS is still equal to about 0.8990. Guy Debelle talked AUD down on TUES and he will talk again on THURS!
feel your pain...
  • #8,013
  • Edited 10:22pm Oct 14, 2014 9:01pm | Edited 10:22pm
Quoting poseikwame
{quote} feel your pain...
Thank You!

After cycle, needs Revision.
Attached Image

The above chart is 1 hour chart for NZD/USD.
There are 2 cycles boundaries marked in orange color, where the cycle number is in purple.
Each cycle got 4 peaks and then drop finally to end the cycle.

The slope of the whole cycle is reduced ( draw a line from cycle start to cycle end for the slope), so next cycle slope ...... !
The difference of start to end (height) is cycle1 : cycle2 = 30 : 10 (just about).
  • #8,014
  • Oct 14, 2014 10:23pm Oct 14, 2014 10:23pm
New cycle started at HKT9:00 15OCT2014.
  • #8,015
  • Oct 14, 2014 10:49pm Oct 14, 2014 10:49pm
Quoting roger44
New cycle started at HKT9:00 15OCT2014.
What's going on here Roger?You've hijacked this and other threads with unintelligible garbage,go away.
  • #8,016
  • Edited 3:09am Oct 15, 2014 1:56am | Edited 3:09am
From a book :
Page43, John Ziman, An introduction to science studies,Cambridge university press,1984(reprinted1992),ISBN 0-521-34680-0.
~
3.6 Prediction
The most convincing demonstration of the validity of a scientific hypothesis is the successful prediction of a previously unobserved or unrecorded phenomenon.
~

As a scientist, I would like to share my information and knowlege with others if possible.
  • #8,017
  • Oct 15, 2014 3:57am Oct 15, 2014 3:57am
Quoting edge540
{quote} What's going on here Roger?You've hijacked this and other threads with unintelligible garbage,go away.
I have to admit I'm getting a bit bit sick and tired of his posting.
  • #8,018
  • Oct 15, 2014 5:43am Oct 15, 2014 5:43am
Quoting zen252
{quote} I have to admit I'm getting a bit bit sick and tired of his posting.
Take care!


Attached Image

The above chart is 1 hour chart for NZD/USD.
Yellow circles marked as reference only (look like it will rise after the yellow circle).
  • #8,019
  • Oct 15, 2014 10:02am Oct 15, 2014 10:02am
CHANGE IN GDT PRICE INDEX
FROM PREVIOUS EVENT
+1.4http://www.globaldairytrade.info/the...-orange-up.png
%

dairy auction
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #8,020
  • Oct 15, 2014 4:14pm Oct 15, 2014 4:14pm
good short 8070 77
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