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AUD/USD

  • #85,161
  • Oct 14, 2014 8:03pm Oct 14, 2014 8:03pm
Quoting poseikwame
{quote} well yhhh i envisioned with all the drama that went on with HK etc... Do you think this will really affect other pairs alot??
I believe it affects general markets in an overall risk appetite sense...
  • #85,162
  • Oct 14, 2014 8:31pm Oct 14, 2014 8:31pm
Quoting RBlackburn
{quote} I believe it affects general markets in an overall risk appetite sense...
looks like a decline... anyway life goes on... the silver kicked me outta the trade
  • #85,163
  • Oct 14, 2014 8:53pm Oct 14, 2014 8:53pm
Bulls aint done yet? Time to buy?
  • #85,164
  • Oct 14, 2014 8:57pm Oct 14, 2014 8:57pm
Quoting benaiah
Bulls aint done yet? Time to buy?
Hell no. Hold on to your shorts
It's easy to win & even easier to lose
  • #85,165
  • Oct 14, 2014 9:01pm Oct 14, 2014 9:01pm
And miss this 120 pip move up?
  • #85,166
  • Oct 14, 2014 9:04pm Oct 14, 2014 9:04pm
Quoting benaiah
And miss this 120 pip move up?
Can you back that up with chart & analysis.?
It's easy to win & even easier to lose
  • #85,167
  • Edited Oct 15, 2014 12:07am Oct 14, 2014 9:05pm | Edited Oct 15, 2014 12:07am
This thing may end up breaking downward in the long haul. But I don't see that the bulls are ready to just let it go down easy...

Daily chart is showing an inside bar inside an inside bar inside an inside bar with false breaks, but nothing for sure yet. Consolidation galore. Eventual break out should be strong and sustained...

If I had to pick a direction and turn off my computer for a week or 2, I'd say it's going South, but until then - Let the pips fly...
  • #85,168
  • Oct 14, 2014 9:06pm Oct 14, 2014 9:06pm
Quoting Doh
{quote} Can you back that up with chart & analysis.?
in a minute...
  • #85,169
  • Oct 14, 2014 9:16pm Oct 14, 2014 9:16pm
Quoting tashkent
expect to reach .8820 and revisit the low. this is where you buy and hold.
price at 0.8708.
0.8695 is asking for revisit. this is where to start building longs. take it slow, start small.
As Above, So Below
  • #85,170
  • Oct 14, 2014 9:19pm Oct 14, 2014 9:19pm
I have just read a news .
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/dr...194713685.html

It wrote :
~
"The Aussie had a whippy 24 hours testing the upper resistance level of 88 US cents yesterday and it's now back testing the 87 cent resistance level," Mr Innes said.

"The catalyst was the RBA's Guy Debelle. His comments that the market could be in for a crash while jawboning the Australian dollar lower has caused quite a stir."

Meanwhile, Australian bond futures prices were higher.
~
  • #85,171
  • Oct 14, 2014 9:19pm Oct 14, 2014 9:19pm
We have start of a bear flag channel. Bears decided just shrug it off and push it right through the bottom. Bulls said oh no you don't and pushed it right back up to the bottom edge.

Here's the thing, nothing for sure. But I'm long until I see that channel absolutely rejected at the bottom since the price was also heading towards the bottom of the daily range as well, so t seems this would be a nice place for the bulls to do a sneak attack.

About a 120 pip long trade to the top of the channel. Will it get there? Who knows. I only try to trade in the direction of the price, and right now, looks like it really wants to go up with a strong push on that last hourly candle, almost an engulfing bar, so more comfortable long on short-term. But again, I'll change directions if that channel is rejected on the bottom and it shows me it really wants to stay below it.

Also, I didn't draw a horizontal line, but if you notice it is right at a support level...

Okay, shoot holes all through my analysis, I can take it
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1.png Size: 23 KB
  • #85,172
  • Oct 14, 2014 9:26pm Oct 14, 2014 9:26pm
Quoting benaiah
We have start of a bear flag channel. Bears decided just shrug it off and push it right through the bottom. Bulls said oh no you don't and pushed it right back up to the bottom edge. Here's the thing, nothing for sure. But I'm long until I see that channel absolutely rejected at the bottom since the price was also heading towards the bottom of the daily range as well, so t seems this would be a nice place for the bulls to do a sneak attack. About a 120 pip long trade to the top of the channel. Will it get there? Who knows. I only try to trade in...
Thanks mate. End of today should prove you right or wrong.
It's easy to win & even easier to lose
  • #85,173
  • Oct 14, 2014 9:30pm Oct 14, 2014 9:30pm
Not sure if take profit is in order...did not like that last 1 hour candle...any advise?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDiDaily.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDiH1.png Size: 50 KB
  • #85,174
  • Oct 14, 2014 9:30pm Oct 14, 2014 9:30pm
Quoting poseikwame
{quote} looks like a decline... anyway life goes on... the silver kicked me outta the trade
That sucks but oh well..
I'm still long on silver and waiting for that aussie trade above 0.8720
  • #85,175
  • Oct 14, 2014 9:32pm Oct 14, 2014 9:32pm
It seems like it will depend on how the hour plays out.

Right now I have 0.8708 as near-term resistance but bulls are fighting to protect 0.87.

If we can close below 0.87 we might see a revisit of 0.8675 when the EU market opens up. From now till then, it seems like more up and down consolidation to me.
  • #85,176
  • Oct 14, 2014 9:38pm Oct 14, 2014 9:38pm
buy AUD at bottom point is too hard, but buy AUD at bottom area is easy. Good fund management is the key to success.

US, EU,JPY and CHN's inflation rate below 2%, I don't think FED will raise cash rate. It will push assets even higher and commodity's price will be steady at current level.
  • #85,177
  • Oct 14, 2014 9:41pm Oct 14, 2014 9:41pm
AU is trapped in a large triangle with strong support at 0.8650. Another test of the triangle is possible & a break North above the resistance line would target 0.8980. A break below the support line targets 0.8465.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1.png Size: 29 KB
It's easy to win & even easier to lose
  • #85,178
  • Oct 14, 2014 9:49pm Oct 14, 2014 9:49pm
Also, if you look at NZDUSD, it has been moving very similarly to AUDUSD. Will NZD keep doing what it has been doing and stay in a channel up? Will AUD follow suit? I'd say right now looks like they both intend to move up short-term. But that could mean for a couple days or just a couple hours.Guess we'll find out soon enough
  • #85,179
  • Oct 14, 2014 10:08pm Oct 14, 2014 10:08pm
Quoting Doh
AU is trapped in a large triangle with strong support at 0.8650. Another test of the triangle is possible & a break North above the resistance line would target 0.8980. A break below the support line targets 0.8465. {image} {image}


targeting 0.89+
  • #85,180
  • Oct 14, 2014 10:10pm Oct 14, 2014 10:10pm
Quoting benaiah
We have start of a bear flag channel... {image}
I drew my channel incorrectly in my first post. Now I can see it actually rejected the bottom of the channel. So, it has been in all along. Glad I went long. We'll see if we can get to the top of the channel...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1.png Size: 27 KB
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