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The similarity system

  • #10,221
  • Oct 13, 2014 1:12pm Oct 13, 2014 1:12pm
Quoting leeshindig
All this to and fro Not even a good place to short imo. edit. sorry, it might end up being, but you can maybe get slightly higher first, is all I mean!
I disagree. That was a perfect place to short. Will it work out? Maybe, maybe not. All the technical analysis in the world will not move money in the market for you! Thats why risk and trade analysis/management is so important. We have all seen >90% probability calls/setup made by EURUSDD fail here a few times before. That's why I said the key is to ask the right questions first, not necssarily just looking for right answers to the wrong ones. The biggest secret for me, is not having 97% succesful trades. It's having an average of 50% wins and still achieving 97% profit targets. It's how you ensure your losses don't affect your account to the same degree the winners does. That is what gives your edge the air it needs to breathe. I have ZERO tolerance for drawdown. If doesn't go my way immediately, I cut the loss at once and wait for it to come to me in my intended direction for a re-entry. That is exactly what I've just done with the setup I posted. Cut the trade(doesnt mean the setup was wrong). Now I have a stop order waiting at 93.85(AUDJPY). I opened this trade explorer late friday, to track my new adventure into scalping land. I'm conventionally a swing trader, but decided to give scalping a shot. So far I've taken 15 trades. 6 wins. 9 losses. yet I'm up about 50% of my account in about 24hrs of trading! a higher win rate simply becomes a bonus and has absolutely nothing to do with my success. The earlier people grasp this, the earlier the headaches will reduce about trying to overcomplicate TZs!
  • #10,222
  • Oct 13, 2014 1:31pm Oct 13, 2014 1:31pm
Im getting more and more confused. I really appreciate the people who are trying to help even if they do it not that clearly.
Itīs funny that everyone ( who got a heureka moment) tells people that there are different ways , giving hints and canīt understand why people donīt understand them.
Maybe its just the issue that they canīt remember how lost they were at the beginning.

I got a question LITEchild. If i get it correct , your TP had only a chance of 7.6241 % to get hit while h=40 . All talking about its a probability game, then why do you took the trade?
TWEE, revoke my membership.
  • #10,223
  • Oct 13, 2014 1:33pm Oct 13, 2014 1:33pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} I disagree. That was a perfect place to short. Will it work out? Maybe, maybe not. All the technical analysis in the world will not move money in the market for you! Thats why risk and trade analysis/management is so important. We have all seen >90% probability calls/setup made by EURUSDD fail here a few times before. That's why I said the key is to ask the right questions first, not necssarily just looking for right answers to the wrong ones. The biggest secret for me, is not having 97% succesful trades. It's having an average of 50% wins...

Chill dude. It's only forex.
  • #10,224
  • Oct 13, 2014 1:34pm Oct 13, 2014 1:34pm
Quoting leeshindig
{quote} Chill dude. It's only forex.
exactly
  • #10,225
  • Oct 13, 2014 1:36pm Oct 13, 2014 1:36pm
Quoting Bartleby
Im getting more and more confused. I really appreciate the people who are trying to help even if they do it not that clearly. Itīs funny that everyone ( who got a heureka moment) tells people that there are different ways , giving hints and canīt understand why people donīt understand them. Maybe its just the issue that they canīt remember how lost they were at the beginning. I got a question LITEchild. If i get it correct , your TP had only a chance of 7.6241 % to get hit while h=40 . All talking about its a probability game, then why do...
where did you get those numbers from?
  • #10,226
  • Oct 13, 2014 1:40pm Oct 13, 2014 1:40pm
Quoting Baillie
{quote} You have a better chance of trading recurrent zones not TZ's. Probabilities are better that potential TZ's will not become confirmed TZ's. I cannot say anything else about this.
Sorry Baillie. Sure you are right. I made a mistake. I meant that there is still a chance of a potential TZ to be erased by price. Man. Even in a post I make a mistake even when I wan't to says the right thing.
  • #10,227
  • Oct 13, 2014 1:44pm Oct 13, 2014 1:44pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} where did you get those numbers from?
Ok rechecked your shared screenshot with h=48 . I used the recurrence_statistic indicator for that.
At the time you entered your short trade the possible h48 transcient zone at the bottom (the target of your tp) was already 30 bars transient.
I took both percentages and subtracted one from the other to get the remaining probability of hitting your target in the next 18 candles or 9 hours.

Did that again with correct h=48 , and i got an even smaller percentage 5,4794%

But okay..maybe i just get everythings wrong , even though everythings is talked out so openly
TWEE, revoke my membership.
  • #10,228
  • Oct 13, 2014 1:46pm Oct 13, 2014 1:46pm
Quoting Baillie
{quote} The area being traded in the chart is already confirmed recurrent. RIGHT The stats no longer apply to this range since the conditions have been satisfied. WRONG What am I missing? You are not missing it, you are looking at it in the wrong way.
I was there for some time I admit and still walk into trees, but a lot less so now. So to ease the pain and pay it forward here is a tip.

When you see the left side of a TZ form do you know if the next bar that begins the right side will be higher or lower? You don't.

It can go higher or lower creating either a PTZ or a FTZ(failed TZ) so depending of how it moved, you plan your move to return to it.

FTZs are your friend.
PTZs are your friend.
TZs are your friend.

Anymore and I might get shot
I want more brain power!
  • #10,229
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:02pm Oct 13, 2014 2:02pm
Quoting hilavoku
{quote} Sorry Baillie. Sure you are right. I made a mistake. I meant that there is still a chance of a potential TZ to be erased by price. Man. Even in a post I make a mistake even when I wan't to says the right thing.
No problem Man, I was just pointing out my #1 rule to keep you in the right direction.

Everyone, I know that this is a difficult concept to grasp at first and there have been a LOT of different theories tossed around how to trade this. So, as a reminder, because I made this statement before, find the trader that has posted something useful, pull their posts and read them. I would look at charts where someone has taken the time to mark them and post in this thread. :nerd:

If you do not get it in a minute, no worries, just re read and look at your charts.

Also, you do not have to be a genius to figure this out! The biggest revelation of this theory for me was the 97% - 3% PROBABILITY statement. If you look at my posts you will see that is what I harp about the most.
  • #10,230
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:04pm Oct 13, 2014 2:04pm
Quoting Bartleby
{quote} Ok rechecked your shared screenshot with h=48 . I used the recurrence_statistic indicator for that. At the time you entered your short trade the possible h48 transcient zone at the bottom (the target of your tp) was already 30 bars transient. I took both percentages and subtracted one from the other to get the remaining probability of hitting your target in the next 18 candles or 9 hours. Did that again with correct h=48 , and i got an even smaller percentage 5,4794% But okay..maybe i just get everythings wrong , even though everythings...
I don't think that's how those percentages are supposed to be used with uncompleted zones, but hey, what do I know?
  • #10,231
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:55pm Oct 13, 2014 2:55pm
Quoting Bartleby
{quote} Ok rechecked your shared screenshot with h=48 . I used the recurrence_statistic indicator for that. At the time you entered your short trade the possible h48 transcient zone at the bottom (the target of your tp) was already 30 bars transient. I took both percentages and subtracted one from the other to get the remaining probability of hitting your target in the next 18 candles or 9 hours. Did that again with correct h=48 , and i got an even smaller percentage 5,4794% But okay..maybe i just get everythings wrong , even though everythings...
Hi,

For the probabilities it is always good to check the pertinent timescale. For the downtrend in AUDJPY it is the D1 (or higher). The probability then turns out to be much higher than this. On the lower timeframe (H1) the pullback become a fractal zone and therefore price-repulsive (as you can calculate), so this is a very safe trade.

I basically do the same thing, with the numbers in, but to the same effect. To put it bluntly this is THE prototypical trade I'd do and recommend with the TZ method.

k
  • #10,232
  • Oct 13, 2014 3:07pm Oct 13, 2014 3:07pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} If doesn't go my way immediately, I cut the loss at once and wait for it to come to me in my intended direction for a re-entry. That is exactly what I've just done with the setup I posted. Cut the trade(doesnt mean the setup was wrong). Now I have a stop order waiting at 93.85(AUDJPY).
Quoting kprsa
{quote} so this is a very safe trade.
Exactly according to plan...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYM30.png Size: 17 KB
  • #10,233
  • Oct 13, 2014 3:19pm Oct 13, 2014 3:19pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} {quote} Exactly according to plan... {image}
...and if it stops going according to plan, cut trade short, rinse. repeat. How hard can it be? It's a no brainer.
  • #10,234
  • Oct 13, 2014 3:36pm Oct 13, 2014 3:36pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} {quote} Exactly according to plan... {image}
there seems to be enough fuel in the tank too..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,235
  • Oct 13, 2014 4:22pm Oct 13, 2014 4:22pm
USD just weakened across board. Best way to trade this? USDJPY gets my vote...sell rallies
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYM30.png Size: 41 KB
  • #10,236
  • Oct 13, 2014 5:39pm Oct 13, 2014 5:39pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} {quote} Exactly according to plan... {image}
Recurrent zone confirrmed. More positions added at 98.6(stop order)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYM30.png Size: 17 KB
  • #10,237
  • Oct 13, 2014 6:25pm Oct 13, 2014 6:25pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} Recurrent zone confirrmed. More positions added at 98.6(stop order) {image}
Hey mate... just pointing out we're holding above today's daily pivot (0.9661) at the moment
R1 @ 94.37 looks likely imo... which would take out your stop.. just an observation
Good luck!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,238
  • Oct 13, 2014 7:17pm Oct 13, 2014 7:17pm
Quoting RBlackburn
{quote} Hey mate... just pointing out we're holding above today's daily pivot (0.9661) at the moment R1 @ 94.37 looks likely imo... which would take out your stop.. just an observation Good luck! {image}
that's exactly what stops are for. To limit losses. The winrate doesn't even matter, as long as the wins stay much bigger than the losses, then no harm done.
That being said, if 93.6 breaks, then the probability of seeing 94.37 BEFORE 93.00 is very slim indeed imo. Tnx. Moreover, JPY is still the strongest currency at the moment and AUD the weakest(according to my algos anyway). What are the odds?
  • #10,239
  • Oct 13, 2014 8:16pm Oct 13, 2014 8:16pm
Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote} I was there for some time I admit and still walk into trees, but a lot less so now. So to ease the pain and pay it forward here is a tip. When you see the left side of a TZ form do you know if the next bar that begins the right side will be higher or lower? You don't. It can go higher or lower creating either a PTZ or a FTZ(failed TZ) so depending of how it moved, you plan your move to return to it. FTZs are your friend. PTZs are your friend. TZs are your friend. Anymore and I might get shot
Well, I don't want the trick spelled out, even if I never get it. So, please don't feel that I am looking for a specific answer. I am happy to do the work and find my own stats, just want to be looking at it in the same way first.

I see a recurrent zone as being confirmed and therefore satisfied for that H and TF by a single retrace through it. The indicators are also written this way. So, either this is incorrect, and there are multiple H-values or TF's being used to define whether a range is recurrent or satisfied, or there is something else entirely that I am missing.
  • #10,240
  • Oct 13, 2014 8:55pm Oct 13, 2014 8:55pm
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} You don't wait. once the previous h bars, give you a hint that a transient zone may be forming, you act assuming that will be the case and act. (This is where the secret is) Riskless profit in most cases. you can declare the area immediately above the zone as h-recurrent and then look for a sell. The following things will happen. If your zone turns out to be h-recurrent, your sell will still win. if your zone turns out to be h-transient, your sell will still win. EITHER way, you will win!!
Hello guys. Can anybody explain it again with pictures?
how it can be both win and win?
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