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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #28,401
  • Oct 9, 2014 1:45am Oct 9, 2014 1:45am
Took this trade and was quite frustrating. As it was making some 50pips and then decided to pullback to close out at BE. The frustrating part is, the market decided to move forward towards 89sma where I initially set the target. And yes it hit the target of 70pips after closing my trade out. I thought about re-entering but don't know how to do it.

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  • #28,402
  • Oct 10, 2014 1:48am Oct 10, 2014 1:48am
Quoting nic73
Took this trade and was quite frustrating. As it was making some 50pips and then decided to pullback to close out at BE. The frustrating part is, the market decided to move forward towards 89sma where I initially set the target. And yes it hit the target of 70pips after closing my trade out. I thought about re-entering but don't know how to do it. {image}

I wish you would put the currency on your chart...

I think its the Aud..

So you bought in a down trend? Counter trading.

If you are counter trading and heading towards the 89 after it broke the 8/21 any profit close to the target for me would be good enough to take the profit close the trade.
  • #28,403
  • Edited 10:27am Oct 10, 2014 7:53am | Edited 10:27am
EURUSD IHR
hi everyone! you have been doing fine as I can see!
It has been a long time,since I wrote comments, but there it is. doesn't show clearly on the 4hrs chart but on the 1hr chart, it's clearer. I can see the price break the 21ema(blue), pull back ,move away, on the back ground, a beautiful HS formation.and where the price just made the last RT of the HS formation by pulling back the the 21ema, should it reach the possible target? will see...

just closed the trades for the weekend, good profit: about 35 pips gain.

have a nice weekend,
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Yvon
  • #28,404
  • Oct 12, 2014 4:13pm Oct 12, 2014 4:13pm
Hi Guys,

Hope you are all well!

Good to see everyone taking more pips, it's been pretty difficult for me to get on here recently but I have been trading and making some really good pips with this 4h macd system now. Going to read through all the posts since I have been away, nice to see some people putting in the time and effort to do some really good ones. And even a couple from the main man himself!

Hopefully I will get a few charts up this week to see if I'm seeing the same as everyone else and get some feedback. Funny enough I have exactly the same as you Yvon on the Eur/Usd. There is a chance it could get a little higher before it comes down but I think it's certainly got some more legs in it short.

Might we even be lucky enough to get some from Phil soon??? That would be cool although in fairness Phil has done a huge amount of selfless work on this forum already so he has probably had enough!

Hopefully everyone will have a good week
  • #28,405
  • Oct 12, 2014 8:49pm Oct 12, 2014 8:49pm
hi JonnyPip, nice to hear from you, I am glad that you are doing fine. one way or another, we will be at least "both" right or "both" wrong! on that possibility there!
Yvon
  • #28,406
  • Edited Oct 13, 2014 11:55am Oct 12, 2014 8:56pm | Edited Oct 13, 2014 11:55am
Anticipation could be that the EURUSD would reach the 89sma(purple) or so. It would make the macd weak on the right shoulder compare to the left shoulder than would possibly get back down at a lower level. I am incline it could do that. Otherwise it could reach the 200sma, will see…

just a thought:
If you put the EURUSD chart on “daily” and add the “volume”, you should see a progression on the volume: “volume goes with the trend” …what I’ have heard somewhere…

141013 Some development here,quite going in expected direction
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Yvon
  • #28,407
  • Oct 13, 2014 1:47am Oct 13, 2014 1:47am
Trademin, saw your post above. I am watching 3 pairs closely - audusd, nzdusd and eurusd. Might take early entry otherwise might have to bear with big SL. Or, take smaller trade is SL becomes to costly. What do you think? Anyone else for comments?

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  • #28,408
  • Oct 13, 2014 8:37am Oct 13, 2014 8:37am
Need insight from the experts here. It's on gbpusd. Would you have taken this trade today? I did and did not quite move the direction I thought it would.
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  • #28,409
  • Oct 13, 2014 8:49am Oct 13, 2014 8:49am
Hi Nic,

Certainly wouldn't say I am an expert but I didn't trade today as it's a US bank holiday so not many people trading. Price moves around like a slug, doesn't really go anywhere. So I personally just take the bank holidays off.
  • #28,410
  • Edited Oct 14, 2014 9:15am Oct 13, 2014 12:30pm | Edited Oct 14, 2014 9:15am
Quoting nic73
Trademin, saw your post above. I am watching 3 pairs closely - audusd, nzdusd and eurusd. Might take early entry otherwise might have to bear with big SL. Or, take smaller trade is SL becomes to costly. What do you think? Anyone else for comments? {image}{image}{image}
Hi Nic,
there is my view on it:

The idea behind a trade, for me, is to « have or Hold » the anticipation already in my mind, as shown above in post: 28406
As you can see on the EURUSD chart, price broke, pull back and now expecting a move away down. I should mention also that the moving averages are about flat, so price could just “oscillate” around those mas. And now see the candles, the last 3-4, they are just chewing gums, waiting at bus station, they went already above the mas, so direction could be lower in the next future, but again, it is just anticipation and market could choose otherwise.
USA and Canada are close today, so action today is anticipated to be more quite than active (my view here)…maybe a long wait at the bus station!

See on the first chart, it is what I call expected action from the market. Already I know what could be the target price (1.2520) is compare to a possible SL. In my case it does worth the risk.
See on the second chart just below that one I just mentioned:
It looks like the possible trade is gaining authority by the fact that there’s a weak representation from the macd from what the candles are showing. So, on that pair, I made my mind, I am going short on it.(from 1.2690) I could be wrong since technical doesn't have a dominant position over the market, but, for me, it does worth the risk. For sure if I had more than one chart to analyse and make my mind on then, it would be more difficult. Sure, sometime I will take more than one pair, because it so obvious to see the anticipation, but one way to fill my appetite, is just to add some more positions on one pair that I chose over the others and just relax my mind!
BTW: look at the macd, the right shoulder is “under construction” right now. Since "range" in a market "tends" to duplicate, up or down , it should be demonstrated by a strong candle...up or down. But my preference is short.


"it should be demonstrated by a strong candle...up or down. But my preference is short."
Sure it has been a strong bar: a jump of about 70 pips but going up! Still short…

-----I took the oportunity to open some more shorts positions, but on one of them has been hit by SL ( just 8 pips gain) but balance is ok : 50 pips secured. Another strong candle could be seen shortly, will see…

It is Monday!

------1.2520 in sight and 1.2420 reachable bit later, will see...
one position closed hit by SL: 56 pips gain
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Yvon
  • #28,411
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:51pm Oct 13, 2014 12:51pm
Quoting JonnyPip
Hi Nic, Certainly wouldn't say I am an expert but I didn't trade today as it's a US bank holiday so not many people trading. Price moves around like a slug, doesn't really go anywhere. So I personally just take the bank holidays off.

Hi JonnyPip,

...it is a wise decision...
Yvon
  • #28,412
  • Edited 2:07pm Oct 14, 2014 9:31am | Edited 2:07pm
one of them have been hit: 56 pips gain
another one +46 pips
---looks like the pair doesn't want to break the neckline yet...
there is an attempt to break the neckline here, so maybe a strong candle down!
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Yvon
  • #28,413
  • Edited 11:53am Oct 14, 2014 10:38am | Edited 11:53am
Quoting nic73
Need insight from the experts here. It's on gbpusd. Would you have taken this trade today? I did and did not quite move the direction I thought it would. {image}
hi Nic,
I know I am late to comment on the GBPUSD.- BUT ALREADY at the time you post,there was a weak macd and since the volatility could face the market in the abscence of US and Canada, who knows what could have happened. If you took that trade, you got blessed!
since it goes with the same figure, a HS as the EURUSD. Which did fall as expected by the weak macd,expecting a strong candle which did happened. There is still a possible move lower expressed by the projection or if you prefer: range tend to duplicate.
---those were all RT but the last RT expressed a weak macd.

BTW: I am still expecting a break of the neckline in EURUSD and a beautifull strong candle just like the GBP did.
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Yvon
  • #28,414
  • Edited 2:09pm Oct 14, 2014 11:02am | Edited 2:09pm
nic,

On the NZDUSD:
I let you draw the shoulders, easy to see. My emphasis would be attracted by the last candle. I would put a SL just above that tail and get into the trade short. Even if the pair is not expressing a clear desire, the whole picture(HS) seems to be a “shy” bearish tendency, I would go for it.

Already in,withj a SL of 16 pips, seems to go the right way!
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Yvon
  • #28,415
  • Edited 2:05pm Oct 14, 2014 11:24am | Edited 2:05pm
Quoting nic73
Trademin, saw your post above. I am watching 3 pairs closely - audusd, nzdusd and eurusd. Might take early entry otherwise might have to bear with big SL. Or, take smaller trade is SL becomes to costly. What do you think? Anyone else for comments? {image}{image}{image}

Hi Nic,
About the AUDUSD:

On the daily chart, a “train station” is expressed on the last two candles: so the pair is not necessary going up in price, but rather a double TC is knitting now, so a move down to .8650 or so is possible.
On the 4hrs chart: same as the eurusd, nzdusd: HS formation on the drawing board…but with less strength in the bearish direction, so I would wait on this one for now…but that’s my view.
just got in...
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Yvon
  • #28,416
  • Oct 15, 2014 2:01am Oct 15, 2014 2:01am
Quoting trademin
{quote} Hi Nic, About the AUDUSD: On the daily chart, a “train station” is expressed on the last two candles: so the pair is not necessary going up in price, but rather a double TC is knitting now, so a move down to .8650 or so is possible. On the 4hrs chart: same as the eurusd, nzdusd: HS formation on the drawing board…but with less strength in the bearish direction, so I would wait on this one for now…but that’s my view. just got in... {image}

Thank you trademin...... i am busy and not posting and only lurking and reading...

What great valuable information you have put in your previous posts..... it keeps me motivated reading your easy descriptions and plans/ideas.

Damn...will have to be cheeky and do a trade on my phone whilst at work..... hope me boss ain't reading this! hahaha

happy pippin all....the holidays are over in the US, data figures are being released so markets will move again now...are you listening Nic???
  • #28,417
  • Oct 15, 2014 2:33am Oct 15, 2014 2:33am
Hi Yvon,

Nice posts agree with everything you have there. Pretty spot on as usual!

Nic for the Nzd/Usd I would say Yvon is right, bearish bias but for me there is a chance of a larger pullback.

The currency is in limbo at the moment. It is making higher highs and higher lows in the 4h chart which means it is in a (short term) uptrend currently so could be risky to trade short now.

For me I will wait for the market to show its hand above or below the marked lines. Wait for a pullback to 21ema and then go with the flow

Having said that if you can get in short with a technically good set up which gives you a small stop loss the odds are in your favour for more bearish momentum, so could be worth a shot. But I'm going to wait it out.
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  • #28,418
  • Oct 15, 2014 3:47am Oct 15, 2014 3:47am
YVON,

Your post on AUDUSD, what is "train station"?

And all the pairs above has moving averages (21,8 and 89) all close by, I remember Nel saying in such situation market can be volatile. Did you take that into consideration or is there exception to it in this case?

Yes Richard, I am around reading the posts. Thanks
  • #28,419
  • Oct 15, 2014 6:20am Oct 15, 2014 6:20am
Quoting nic73
YVON, Your post on AUDUSD, what is "train station"? And all the pairs above has moving averages (21,8 and 89) all close by, I remember Nel saying in such situation market can be volatile. Did you take that into consideration or is there exception to it in this case? Yes Richard, I am around reading the posts. Thanks
A “train station” is an expression: that is 2 candles next to each other having their bodies in opposite direction and same seize . Sometime it is called “oopps!” because the direction or trend changes in one candle!

Moving average is a good reference to plan a trade, so what happens when there are many moving averages and also when they are getting some about flat, one getting bearish, and another getting bullish! What a confusing situation! That is where volatility can get dominant because so many different decisions made by traders. If all the ma were clearly bullish or clearly bearish it would be trading in harmony, and bounces would become apparent!-my view…
what I have seen is HS, and AudUsd was showing that,the pair did hit a small target but went back in "neutral.---just enough time to take some light profit and get out of the trade for now., same with NzdUsd, light profit. But I kept EurUsd.
Yvon
  • #28,420
  • Oct 15, 2014 6:34am Oct 15, 2014 6:34am
Quoting JonnyPip
Hi Yvon, Nice posts agree with everything you have there. Pretty spot on as usual! Nic for the Nzd/Usd I would say Yvon is right, bearish bias but for me there is a chance of a larger pullback. The currency is in limbo at the moment. It is making higher highs and higher lows in the 4h chart which means it is in a (short term) uptrend currently so could be risky to trade short now. For me I will wait for the market to show its hand above or below the marked lines. Wait for a pullback to 21ema and then go with the flow Having said that if you can...
I agree with you JonnyPip, some times have past and opportunity has been push a bit so action should be coming later, postponed , maybe action will be done at 8:30 this morning, will see…
Prices bounced on necklines instead of breaking it.HS are kind of slowly fading away.
with HS, my SL are evidently very low! sometime 15 pips! ...on a 4hrs chart!
Yvon
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