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The similarity system

  • #10,201
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:08pm Oct 13, 2014 12:08pm
Quoting Baillie
{quote} HEHEHE, Nice one! the TZ trick is in this picture.
  • #10,202
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:10pm Oct 13, 2014 12:10pm
Quoting hilavoku
And when I look at the lower yellow line which will be become the next confirmed TZ then the bias would be long!?
...you do have a crystal ball then?
  • #10,203
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:13pm Oct 13, 2014 12:13pm
Quoting Baillie
{quote} You need to pay attention to which potential TZ has been forming first, that is the 1st priority. It is below
Ah. Then I looked at the wrong TZ! I need to look at the lowest TZ cause its the first non confirmed one. Than I understand why the bias is short. Right?
  • #10,204
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:16pm Oct 13, 2014 12:16pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} ...you do have a crystal ball then?
Haha LITE. I have balls but they don't enlighten me. . I can't take the lowest unconfirmed TZ into consideration cause (as the name states it) its not confirmed. So the bias of the last confirmed TZ is short...
  • #10,205
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:18pm Oct 13, 2014 12:18pm
Quoting hilavoku
{quote} Haha LITE.I have balls but they don't enlighten me. . I can't take the lowest unconfirmed TZ into consideration cause (as the name states it) its not confirmed. So the bias of the last confirmed TZ is short...
(you just made my day)
  • #10,206
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:18pm Oct 13, 2014 12:18pm
Quoting Baillie
{quote} HEHEHE, Nice one! the TZ trick is in this picture.
All I see is standard manual S/R trading - nothing wrong with it, but also nothing to do with the TZ trick I'm trying to grasp.

The area being traded in the chart is already confirmed recurrent. The stats no longer apply to this range since the conditions have been satisfied. What am I missing?
  • #10,207
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:22pm Oct 13, 2014 12:22pm
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote} All I see is standard manual S/R trading - nothing wrong with it, but also nothing to do with the TZ trick I'm trying to grasp. The area being traded in the chart is already confirmed recurrent. The stats no longer apply to this range since the conditions have been satisfied. What am I missing?
not strictly true.
  • #10,208
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:27pm Oct 13, 2014 12:27pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} not strictly true.
Statistically significant relationship between some confirmed recurrent H and behavior of some smaller H?
  • #10,209
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:28pm Oct 13, 2014 12:28pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} (you just made my day)
Then its something valuable I have done to this thread. Even when it has nothing to do with trading.

But what sometimes helps is to re-think the things you get here. Activating the own brain and to question things you read. It's not that complex but because the information given is somewhat superficial you can't take the info and say YES. That's it. I make the steps one,two, three and the pips are mine. I can see that there are many possibility's to combine DS and TZ with other strategies to have an edge. Wow! And the best there are combinations which won't rely on lagging indicators.
Now I need to read the last 90 pages of this thread and keep calm. Re-think the stuff. Re-read the PDFs and special posts given. And then create a 'simple' and , 'robust' strategy.

thanks
hila
  • #10,210
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:32pm Oct 13, 2014 12:32pm
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote} All I see is standard manual S/R trading - nothing wrong with it, but also nothing to do with the TZ trick I'm trying to grasp. The area being traded in the chart is already confirmed recurrent. The stats no longer apply to this range since the conditions have been satisfied. What am I missing?
No they have not been satisfied yet. Exactly the TZ trick YOU are trying to grasp is not the one I am point to.
  • #10,211
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:33pm Oct 13, 2014 12:33pm
Quoting hilavoku
{quote} Ah. Then I looked at the wrong TZ! I need to look at the lowest TZ cause its the first non confirmed one. Than I understand why the bias is short. Right?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 51 KB
  • #10,212
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:33pm Oct 13, 2014 12:33pm
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote} Statistically significant relationship between some confirmed recurrent H and behavior of some smaller H?
simply depends on the 'h' you are using on any particular timeframe. The defintion holds true, only in as much as 'h' is satisfied.
  • #10,213
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:36pm Oct 13, 2014 12:36pm
Quoting hilavoku
{quote} Then its something valuable I have done to this thread. Even when it has nothing to do with trading. But what sometimes helps is to re-think the things you get here. Activating the own brain and to question things you read. It's not that complex but because the information given is somewhat superficial you can't take the info and say YES. That's it. I make the steps one,two, three and the pips are mine. I can see that there are many possibility's to combine DS and TZ with other strategies to have an edge. Wow! And the best there are combinations...
Your attitude is 97% recurrent and 3% Transient! I predict you will go far my friend. Sometimes, the trick is not looking for the right answers, but asking the right questions...
  • #10,214
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:38pm Oct 13, 2014 12:38pm
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote} All I see is standard manual S/R trading - nothing wrong with it, but also nothing to do with the TZ trick I'm trying to grasp. The area being traded in the chart is already confirmed recurrent. The stats no longer apply to this range since the conditions have been satisfied. What am I missing?
The area being traded in the chart is already confirmed recurrent. RIGHT


The stats no longer apply to this range since the conditions have been satisfied. WRONG


What am I missing? You are not missing it, you are looking at it in the wrong way.
  • #10,215
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:40pm Oct 13, 2014 12:40pm
Quoting Baillie
{quote} No they have not been satisfied yet. Exactly the TZ trick YOU are trying to grasp is not the one I am point to.
hello Baillie ..could you please explain and elaborate about the one you are pointing to?

thank you in advance

Franco

oops.... the time I wrote my post you accomplished my request...lol My luck I thanked you in advance
  • #10,216
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:44pm Oct 13, 2014 12:44pm
Quoting corvogrigio
{quote} hello Baillie ..could you please explain and elaborate about the one you are pointing to? thank you in advance Franco oops.... the time I wrote my post you accomplished my request...lol My luck I thanked you in advance
  • #10,217
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:45pm Oct 13, 2014 12:45pm
All this to and fro

Not even a good place to short imo.

edit. sorry, it might end up being, but you can maybe get slightly higher first, is all I mean!
  • #10,218
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:45pm Oct 13, 2014 12:45pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} simply depends on the 'h' you are using on any particular timeframe. The defintion holds true, only in as much as 'h' is satisfied.
I made the observation a few pages back that each h or tf must be satisfied independently, since what would show as recurrent on M1 may show as transient on M15. So, taking it a step further, are you suggesting that probability at any given time is some weighted avg of h's, satisfied vs. unsatisfied? And, if so, there must be some magnitude component, k, such that the probability would be predictive outside of the current range, i.e. setting targets for multi-year lows based on current TZ's... Shall I venture down this rabbit hole?
  • #10,219
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:47pm Oct 13, 2014 12:47pm
Quoting Baillie
{quote} {image}
Thanks Baillie. Then there is still some time for the 1st potential TZ to be a confirmed one. Then I think I could understand those 'time based' statements concerning those potential TZs...
I need to get the (potential) TZs into one big picture to make a decision if there is still a chance for a potential TZ to become a confirmed one...

I really thank you guys for the help you are giving here. I guess sometimes it is not easy to give the same help again and again.
  • #10,220
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:55pm Oct 13, 2014 12:55pm
Quoting hilavoku
{quote} Thanks Baillie. Then there is still some time for the 1st potential TZ to be a confirmed one. Then I think I could understand those 'time based' statements concerning those potential TZs... I need to get the (potential) TZs into one big picture to make a decision if there is still a chance for a potential TZ to become a confirmed one... I really thank you guys for the help you are giving here. I guess sometimes it is not easy to give the same help again and again.
You have a better chance of trading recurrent zones not TZ's. Probabilities are better that potential TZ's will not become confirmed TZ's. I cannot say anything else about this.
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