Counter-trend trading | Page 7 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Are you a trend trader or a counter-trend trader? 29 replies

Looking For "COUNTER TREND" To Become "TREND" 29 replies

Is Grid Trading (combined trend following and counter trend) Profitable? 3 replies

1 hour counter-trend trading technique 8 replies

Counter trend trading 19 replies

Attachments: Counter-trend trading
Exit Attachments

Counter-trend trading

  • #121
  • Oct 13, 2014 9:10am Oct 13, 2014 9:10am
Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote} {quote} Well TZs is a basic premise so to speak. Depending on how you apply it TZs work in trends too actually. I'd say its really the approach that matters. I drew the parallel here because what I believe MM is doing in his examples is that he spotted a mispricing and when conditions allow it he trades back to the mispriced level which is similar to what we do for TZs and DSs albeit the targets we select are different. In essence I think we are all doing the same thing.
I get you.

RZ is more what I'm using, even though I'm not using that indicator. But this is far deeper than 97% to 3% probability, I can see where big players are offloading and jumping in.

Maybe similar, just trading TZ/RZ is not the same, don't want to mislead.

MM
  • #122
  • Oct 13, 2014 9:17am Oct 13, 2014 9:17am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting Madmoney
{quote} I get you. RZ is more what I'm using, even though I'm not using that indicator. But this is far deeper than 97% to 3% probability, I can see way big players are offloading and jumping in. Maybe similar, just trading TZ/RZ is not the same, don't want to mislead. MM

That makes sense to me because what I took from the whole TZ discussion/lesson is that more often than not price likes to be recurrent.
You are clearly trading back to areas where price has already been. The problem is timing. We all know the big players move the market so we have to use other methods to determine when they are ready to move price back to those zones in our favour so that we can jump onboard.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #123
  • Oct 13, 2014 9:20am Oct 13, 2014 9:20am
Quoting Madmoney
{quote} I get you. RZ is more what I'm using, even though I'm not using that indicator. But this is far deeper than 97% to 3% probability, I can see way big players are offloading and jumping in. Maybe similar, just trading TZ/RZ is not the same, don't want to mislead. MM
Hey MM thanks for the reply! At least it kinda confirms what I suspect you are doing hehe. Yup we are returning to certain levels but because the nature of our levels are different how we return to it is therefore different. Being able to see how big players are offloading and jumping in will surely allow us to trade wonderfully. Fact that you are able to see it clearly show the gap between our abilities. The best "off the shelf tool" I can think of in the meantime to achieve that insight is via volumes i guess.
I want more brain power!
  • #124
  • Oct 13, 2014 9:25am Oct 13, 2014 9:25am
Quoting Neio
{quote} That makes sense to me because what I took from the whole TZ discussion/lesson is that more often than not price likes to be recurrent. You are clearly trading back to areas where price has already been. The problem is timing. We all know the big players move the market so we have use other methods to determine when they are ready to move price back to those zones in our favour so that we can jump onboard.
Hey thanks! That is kinda what we have "evolved" TZ to do for us. Spot a level and wait for a trigger. The trigger is of course up to individuals. What you mentioned is the key weakness of TZ. Going in at the wrong time kills you. Thanks again both your replies have confirmed for me what it is you guys are doing.
I want more brain power!
  • #125
  • Oct 13, 2014 9:29am Oct 13, 2014 9:29am
Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote} Hey MM thanks for the reply! At least it kinda confirms what I suspect you are doing hehe. Yup we are returning to certain levels but because the nature of our levels are different how we return to it is therefore different. Being able to see how big players are offloading and jumping in will surely allow us to trade wonderfully. Fact that you are able to see it clearly show the gap between our abilities. The best "off the shelf tool" I can think of in the meantime to achieve that insight is via volumes i guess.
What I'm doing isn't perfect and there is a lot of room for human error. I also have to admit my money management is the best either, there has been times where if I traded a normal method I would be over exposed, but with this discovery I'm allowed to do that.

In the next few weeks I'll be looking make more clinical versions of what I have, not sure how yet.

My ability doesn't lie in my trading, it came down to research, that was the most difficult.
  • #126
  • Oct 13, 2014 9:31am Oct 13, 2014 9:31am
Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote} Hey MM thanks for the reply! At least it kinda confirms what I suspect you are doing hehe. Yup we are returning to certain levels but because the nature of our levels are different how we return to it is therefore different. Being able to see how big players are offloading and jumping in will surely allow us to trade wonderfully. Fact that you are able to see it clearly show the gap between our abilities. The best "off the shelf tool" I can think of in the meantime to achieve that insight is via volumes i guess....
Offloading and jumping in is a better description than 'returning'. IMHO. They are not always returning. However, they are always jumping (compressing) in.
  • #127
  • Oct 13, 2014 10:07am Oct 13, 2014 10:07am
Quoting Ullen
60 pips Counter trade very fast. Trend is your enemy guys, defeat it {image} {image} {image}
Hey my friend...

In so many ways I do agree with you about what you are saying but imagine if you took this same concept and idea and applied it to the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts?

Imagine how you could hold a trade for days and even weeks and collect hundreds and hundreds of pips during the major market reversal swings!!!

Oh and by the way, you can use the Bill Williams Fractals or when you see big Pin Bars, Hammers or even Engulfing Candles to know when market reversals normally occur. It's not 100% perfect but very close!

Here is what I have realized:

  1. Bill Williams Fractals and Support & Resistance Levels Are Exactly the Same Thing
  2. Bill Williams Fractal Levels Are The True Swing Highs and Swing Lows
  3. Bill Williams Fractal Points Are Where You Can Draw Your
    Horizontal Support & Resistance {Supply & Demand} Levels and Zones
  4. Support & Resistance Traders and Channel Traders Are Actually Counter Trend
    Traders
  5. Counter Trend Trading Can Be Profitable Whether In a Long-Term Trend Wave or a Major Reversal Swing [Counter Trend Leg] Starting a New "Opposite Long Trend Wave"

Another way we can look at it is this:

  1. Big Trend Cycles or Trend Legs Can Be Called "Long Waves"
  2. And Smaller Trend Cycles or What Some Refer To As Retracements or Counter Trend Cycles Can Be Called "Short Waves"

The normal trend cycles or "long waves" seem to be more "electric" in terms of their energy behavior. While counter trend cycles or "short waves" seem to be more "magnetic" with their energy signature. I hope that makes sense from an energy perspective.

Like I said, I see that you are having success with your counter trend method on the 5M chart but please, just try it on the higher time frames [Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 4H] and then see how many pips you can get!

You will have to be more patient to wait for clear setups, there will be less signals and you will have to hold them open longer, but it's well worth the wait because the profit targets will be much bigger

It's time we stop entertaining ourselves and start realizing ourselves!
  • #128
  • Oct 13, 2014 10:08am Oct 13, 2014 10:08am
Quoting Sherpa
“One Man's Ceiling Is Another Man's Floor”
That's right
It's time we stop entertaining ourselves and start realizing ourselves!
  • #129
  • Oct 13, 2014 10:14am Oct 13, 2014 10:14am
Well I do a have an explanation of what "price is fake" means. Contentious at best but here goes.

Lets say price at point A is what is perceived by the big boys as a fair value. Since its a value they are ok with, they buy. Because of this buying price moves up and we have an uptrend. This uptrend is not the true value of the commodity simply because it is the result of the previous buying at A. There then has to be a point where the big boys need to offload the stuff they have on hand no? At least to the point where they bought at A. We don't essentially try to go beyond because price is once again at fair value and we won't know what the big boys are going to do. So we again wait for their move and react. This said any move we make for the return to the fair value will always put us in a counter trend.

Well just a thought
I want more brain power!
  • #130
  • Oct 13, 2014 10:23am Oct 13, 2014 10:23am
Quoting cfdtaleong
Well I do a have an explanation of what "price is fake" means. Contentious at best but here goes. Lets say price at point A is what is perceived by the big boys as a fair value. Since its a value they are ok with, they buy. Because of this buying price moves up and we have an uptrend. This uptrend is not the true value of the commodity simply because it is the result of the previous buying at A. There then has to be a point where the big boys need to offload the stuff they have on hand no? At least to the point where they bought at A. We don't essentially...
I will put my neck out there and say the "price" on free charts is what the big players want you to see, while they get their prices wholesale.

Most free charting software, if not all show false prices a lot of the time, why do you think there are different tiers/levels for charting platforms that cost thousands a month?
  • #131
  • Oct 13, 2014 10:41am Oct 13, 2014 10:41am
Quoting Madmoney
{quote} I will put my neck out there and say the "price" on free charts is what the big players want you to see, while they get their prices wholesale. Most free charting software, if not all show false prices a lot of the time, why do you think there are different tiers/levels for charting platforms that cost thousands a month?
I see....
I want more brain power!
  • #132
  • Oct 13, 2014 10:46am Oct 13, 2014 10:46am
Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote} I see....
I'm not using any of those premium charts, I just found a way to get the most out of my tools.
  • #133
  • Oct 13, 2014 11:12am Oct 13, 2014 11:12am
Quoting Ullen
{quote} There are many ways to spot this, you just need to find your own
Sorry Ullen I'm all over your thread.

I will be
  • #134
  • Oct 13, 2014 11:23am Oct 13, 2014 11:23am
Quoting moneyflow21
{quote} Hey my friend... In so many ways I do agree with you about what you are saying but imagine if you took this same concept and idea and applied it to the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts?
Cool buddy!

I have a very special trading concept, and i'ts not based on classic indicators, even though theese can do fine. In fact i could trade the system with no indicators at all.

Everyone has their own way of using this, and thats awesome. I just want to challenge the mindset of most traders.
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #135
  • Oct 13, 2014 11:25am Oct 13, 2014 11:25am
Quoting Madmoney
{quote} Sorry Ullen I'm all over your thread. I will be
No worries my friend.

Everything you write is pure gold
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #136
  • Oct 13, 2014 11:49am Oct 13, 2014 11:49am
Quoting Ullen
{quote} Cool buddy! I have a very special trading concept, and i'ts not based on classic indicators, even though theese can do fine. In fact i could trade the system with no indicators at all. Everyone has their own way of using this, and thats awesome. I just want to challenge the mindset of most traders.
Yes and thank you!

I'm lovin' your thread and hope more like minded individuals can add something of value to it.
It's time we stop entertaining ourselves and start realizing ourselves!
  • #137
  • Edited 1:21pm Oct 13, 2014 12:03pm | Edited 1:21pm
Quoting Neio
{quote} The problem with defining trends is that there are shorter term trends on lower time frames that may be in the opposite direction to the longer term trend. I think we all need to get over the subject title of Ullen's journal.
Quoting Ullen
{quote} Thank you my friend. You are one of the few understanding this concept. I will ignore the ones complaining. Good pips for you!
Yep, I agree with both of your quotes Neio and Ullen.

The title was no big deal to me but may confuse some newer traders.

But for me its no problem...I get it.

Good trading everyone
It's time we stop entertaining ourselves and start realizing ourselves!
  • #138
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:16pm Oct 13, 2014 12:16pm
Quoting Madmoney
People can doubt making 1%-100% a day, your only limited by what you think. MM
I love this because it truly is someone's mindset that determines outcome. It's very motivating.

I have a question about these market inefficiencies. Is this related to auction market principles where price gets out of value or balance for a given timeframe? I'm not executing these yet but am glad to be out of the technical analysis rites of passage that every trader goes through.

Thanks.
  • #139
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:20pm Oct 13, 2014 12:20pm
Quoting Nfp
U should find a target...but not trend if u know where the TARGET of market.. trend will exist by itself.... by not think about trend...u will remove the stressful of business ...
Yep, that is the key.

Once we can identify where the big boys targets are which are normally near historical S&R levels and Fractal levels and even near Pivots, then we know that "eventually" those "targets" will get hit!

Remember...

"Look left, structure leaves clues!" - Quote by Harmonic Trader Jason Stapleton

It's time we stop entertaining ourselves and start realizing ourselves!
  • #140
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:25pm Oct 13, 2014 12:25pm
Quoting daytrade
Guys, if you say Trend is your enemy then I challenge you to try in longterm trade position in counter trend it will blow your account soon
But what if he applied this same method on a Monthly chart or a Weekly chart when price reverses and goes the opposite way, and he then holds onto his trades much longer seeking bigger profit targets from those higher perspectives?

Would that be considered trend trading or counter trend trading from those higher time frames?

Would it be taking the "path-of-least-resistance" while flowing with those longer-term trend "wave cycles" OR would it be going against the lower time frames when they change direction?

I guess we all have our own different definitions of "trend" especially when the lower time frames can be going up while the higher charts look like they are going down.

It all depends on how long we intend to keep our positions open and if we decide to scalp for a small amount of pips or swing/position trade for hundreds even thousands of pips from the Daily, Weekly and Monthly charts.

It's all relative perspectives I think.
It's time we stop entertaining ourselves and start realizing ourselves!
0 traders viewing now