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Let's Trade Options

  • #5,261
  • Oct 9, 2014 12:20pm Oct 9, 2014 12:20pm
Performance profile from IB for your combo...

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Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,262
  • Oct 9, 2014 12:54pm Oct 9, 2014 12:54pm
I am holding off on GLD spreads, I think we might get a little pullback. Actually, we might get a lot of pullback. I could be wrong, we'll see. I saw Yellen & Co. try to talk back the bull USD yesterday but I don't think it'll stick.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,263
  • Oct 9, 2014 2:36pm Oct 9, 2014 2:36pm
Almost closing time down Rio way, I expect we see those polls come out soon. EWZ & PBR the only green things on my lists.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,264
  • Oct 9, 2014 2:43pm Oct 9, 2014 2:43pm
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Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,265
  • Oct 9, 2014 3:53pm Oct 9, 2014 3:53pm
how low can oil go? look around at the oil patch stocks and you'll see plenty chances to bottom pick. But oversupply/lack of demand might persist, and if the USD resumes its downtrend, oil would head even lower...I am watching though.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,266
  • Oct 9, 2014 4:06pm Oct 9, 2014 4:06pm
Quoting The Fool
how low can oil go? look around at the oil patch stocks and you'll see plenty chances to bottom pick. But oversupply/lack of demand might persist, and if the USD resumes its downtrend, oil would head even lower...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102075519?trk...ack:topnews:10

spot WTI went from $134 to $39 in 12 months, just 5 years ago. Supply and demand, my ass.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,267
  • Edited 6:35pm Oct 9, 2014 6:25pm | Edited 6:35pm
https://za.news.yahoo.com/brazils-ne...-business.html

neves 46 / rousseff 44 ... 6% undecided...a statistical dead heat
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,268
  • Oct 9, 2014 10:46pm Oct 9, 2014 10:46pm
Quoting The Fool
how low can oil go? look around at the oil patch stocks and you'll see plenty chances to bottom pick. But oversupply/lack of demand might persist, and if the USD resumes its downtrend, oil would head even lower...I am watching though.
Oil < $84.40 overnight. Sub $80 easy if the USD asserts some trending strength again.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,269
  • Oct 9, 2014 11:12pm Oct 9, 2014 11:12pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Good time then to cast our baits.... going to bid really low at EWZ 53 and 55 Nov/Jan Call Calendars
I am interested to see the market reaction to Thursday's poll numbers: I expect EWZ and PBR (etc) will slide a bit on the news that it's such a tight race. I am looking thru calendars on Thursday's close price, not seeing any deals. Everything'll be much changed come Friday morn.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,270
  • Edited Oct 10, 2014 1:00am Oct 9, 2014 11:49pm | Edited Oct 10, 2014 1:00am
What should I do about this IWM bear put diagonal spread? IWM closed AH @ $105.80. I paid $1.83 for the long Dec $103 puts and scored $0.63 on the short 10/18 $105 puts - a net $1.20 debit when I opened the trade. If I had closed the trade at Thursday's close, I would have netted about $0.65 profit.

Futures are pointing to a gap down at the open Friday. I think the rundown of the small caps may have a little more to go, but that most of it is in the books.

I guess I should either close the trade or roll down the short $105's before the share price hits $105. I could probably roll down to the Nov $100 or $101 puts and pick up enough additional credit to break me even on the spread. If IWM kept falling over the next weeks I could roll down again or close out for good profit.

One bird in hand, two in bush...

Just dreaming out loud, but I could see IWM dropping another $10 in the next month - down to $95...if I hang on to the $103 puts in that case they would be worth about $8-10 m/l, and the one trade could more than double the account....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,271
  • Oct 10, 2014 12:09am Oct 10, 2014 12:09am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Oil < $84.40 overnight. Sub $80 easy if the USD asserts some trending strength again.
Oil $83.80, gold steadier, just a few bucks down - $1,222. EUR/USD @$1.2700, looks to be bear flagging. I am watching for another step down toward $1.2500 on fiber and we'll see how strong gold's intentions are. If that happens, oil will dive more....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,272
  • Oct 10, 2014 12:25am Oct 10, 2014 12:25am
Quoting The Fool
Any options traders here? Want to talk about trading options? Not sure if this thread will go anywhere. If I find even one cool trader in FF who wants to share some good options trading ideas, then I'll be happy. I am not a very sophisticated options trader - been trading options m/l full time for only the last year or so. I am basically a beginner, but I make money consistently. So, being a greenhorn, I am not out to be anybody's guru. And I'm not looking for one, either. I like learning by doing. I don't want to spend much time discussing options...
Please change name of this thread ............................................. for some reason, I always misread it as Let's Trade Onions!
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #5,273
  • Oct 10, 2014 12:54am Oct 10, 2014 12:54am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Please change name of this thread ............................................. for some reason, I always misread it as Let's Trade Onions!
nut....how are you getting on, old chap?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,274
  • Oct 10, 2014 1:38am Oct 10, 2014 1:38am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Let's Trade Onions!
cant do it solly...

The Onion Futures Act (7 U.S.C Chapter 1 § 13-1) is a United States law banning the trading of futures contracts on onions. In 1955 two onion traders, Sam Seigel and Vincent Kosuga, cornered the onion futures market on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The resulting regulatory actions led to the passing of the act on August 28, 1958. It remains in effect as of 2012.
(…)

In the fall of 1955, Seigel and Kosuga bought enough onions and onion futures so that they controlled 98 percent of the available onions in Chicago. Millions of pounds of onions were shipped to Chicago to cover their purchases. By late 1955, they had stored 30,000,000 pounds (14,000,000 kg) of onions in Chicago. They soon changed course and convinced onion growers to begin purchasing their inventory by threatening to flood the market with onions if they did not. Seigel and Kosuga told the growers that they would hold the rest of their inventory in order to support the price of onions.

As the growers began buying onions, Seigel and Kosuga purchased short positions on a large amount of onion contracts. They also arranged to have their stores of onions reconditioned because they had started to spoil. They shipped them outside of Chicago to have them cleaned and then repackaged and re-shipped back to Chicago. The new shipments of onions caused many futures traders to think that there was an excess of onions and further drove down onion prices in Chicago. By the end of the onion season in March 1956, Seigel and Kosuga had flooded the markets with their onions and driven the price of 50 pounds (23 kg) of onions down to 10 cents a bag. In August 1955, the same quantity of onions had been priced at $2.75 a bag. So many onions were shipped to Chicago in order to depress prices that there were onion shortages in other parts of the United States.

Seigel and Kosuga made millions of dollars on the transaction due to their short position on onion futures. At one point, however, 50 pounds (23 kg) of onions were selling in Chicago for less than the bags that held them. This drove many onion farmers into bankruptcy. A public outcry ensued among onion farmers who were left with large amounts of worthless inventory. Many of the farmers had to pay to dispose of the large amounts of onions that they had purchased and grown.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #5,275
  • Oct 10, 2014 2:14am Oct 10, 2014 2:14am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} cant do it solly... The Onion Futures Act (7 U.S.C Chapter 1 § 13-1) is a United States law banning the trading of futures contracts on onions. In 1955 two onion traders, Sam Seigel and Vincent Kosuga, cornered the onion futures market on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The resulting regulatory actions led to the passing of the act on August 28, 1958. It remains in effect as of 2012. (…) In the fall of 1955, Seigel and Kosuga bought enough onions and onion futures so that they controlled 98 percent of the available onions in Chicago. Millions...
Great post! Bookmarked it for further reference.
Fail better.
  • #5,276
  • Oct 10, 2014 6:11am Oct 10, 2014 6:11am
Quoting StrayDog
On Oct2 when TSLA was around $247 I entered an IC 220/225 + 270/275 for Oct17 expiry. Short strikes at that time was 1 SD away. Got $0.62 credit for both sides, $1.24 total. Since then, stock was climbing, and today is some D-day event... So yesterday I closed put side for $0.14, and today opened bull put spread higher, 240/245 for $0.57 credit... So now I have 240/245 + 270/275 Iron Condor, since stock is $262... Probably they will test my short call, but then I expect a pullback. So, just be in the 245 - 270 range and theta decay will do...
Why the f... I did that... like volatility, price can be mean reverting, down market will drive all stocks - momentum stocks the most. After closing the put side, I should have just sit tight... I see suport at $235... Now instead of having a winning trade, this has a potential to became a loser. What can I do if price goes down big time?
1. Close the bull put spread and take loss
2. Close short put with a loss and hopes it goes really really down, so my long put gains
3. Close short put with a loss and open another one lower (235), making a debit put spread like 240/235 with remaining long put

F... it.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,277
  • Edited 6:54am Oct 10, 2014 6:14am | Edited 6:54am
For today...

So, what should we do today? If market opens with the gap down, should we wait for it to fill it or try to fill it, and then short the rip? SPY or QQQ or IWM? maybe I will try long puts on QQQ. Conservately we could short the rip with bearish call spreads for Nov monthly expiry.

Next week is massive earnings week, my preliminary ER's table is full, plenty of large financial stocks are there... C, JPM, WFC, AXP, BAC, GS... as well as NFLX, JNJ, GOOGL, EBAY, DAL, SLB... So I don't think so that the market will just tank, untill we see the results. But overall market sentiment is also very important when ER's are in play. Take AA as example - they beat every estimate, yet stock after preliminary up move was down big yesterday.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,278
  • Oct 10, 2014 7:25am Oct 10, 2014 7:25am
Quoting Cecil Gee
put in a order to long puts on QQQ $98 PUTS for Friday for 20c or better. NOT FILLED YET PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) -NasdaqGM 98.68 {image} 2.11(2.18%) 8:51PM GMT+01:00 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
if only it had filled
  • #5,279
  • Oct 10, 2014 8:06am Oct 10, 2014 8:06am
Quoting StrayDog
What can I do if price goes down big time? 1. Close the bull put spread and take loss 2. Close short put with a loss and hopes it goes really really down, so my long put gains 3. Close short put with a loss and open another one lower (235), making a debit put spread like 240/235 with remaining long put F... it.
That's a tough one & take anything I say with a grain of salt cuz I have not been watching TSLA at all lately. I don't think there is going to be a massive market collapse, just a healthy pullback - and in some sectors we are maybe near the bottom of that. ^RUT, for instance, has given back all that it has gained for the last year.

otoh, there are many planets aligned that look pretty ominous & you know all about them: FED confusion, end of taper, ebola, ISIS, Eurozone tanking, strong USD, Republicans about to sweep the US midterms, etc. It's October. And where the hell is Kim J. Un? Broad market slide may have more to run and the momo stocks like TSLA can really bleed if that's the prognosis.

You might ride it out: TSLA on the bubble premarket @ $245. If it were me I would probably wait and see if it will bounce a bit and maybe hold it over the weekend if it does....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,280
  • Oct 10, 2014 8:18am Oct 10, 2014 8:18am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} That's a tough one & take anything I say with a grain of salt cuz I have not been watching TSLA at all lately. I don't think there is going to be a massive market collapse, just a healthy pullback - and in some sectors we are maybe near the bottom of that. ...

...You might ride it out: TSLA on the bubble premarket @ $245. If it were me I would probably wait and see if it will bounce a bit and maybe hold it over the weekend if it does....
Yes, and a big earnings week is coming, possibly bringing more volatile days... There is more than 30 underlyings currently with IV rank at 100! A bunch of them in a 80 - 100 range... Its option selling time.

About TSLA, yes I was thinking about that also... theta decay over weekend. I ruined perfectly good IC with messing around it.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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