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AUD/USD

  • #85,041
  • Oct 8, 2014 8:15pm Oct 8, 2014 8:15pm
Quoting Balmain Boy
{quote} No it's not. It's the Full Time Employment Change of +21.6K that's driving it. The 6.1 % Unemployment Rate is due to the Participation Rate falling away to 64.5.
I am reading wrong? "Employment data -29.7K change and 6.1% unemployment in Sep vs 15.5k and 6.1% expected and 32.1k and 6.1% in Oct.
  • #85,042
  • Oct 8, 2014 8:20pm Oct 8, 2014 8:20pm
There is only ONE WAY for the RBA to truly talk down the AUD - any guessers?
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #85,043
  • Oct 8, 2014 8:29pm Oct 8, 2014 8:29pm
Quoting Compulsive
{quote} I am reading wrong? "Employment data -29.7K change and 6.1% unemployment in Sep vs 15.5k and 6.1% expected and 32.1k and 6.1% in Oct.
You're not reading it wrong, you're just not focusing on the most important part of the data.
The Full Time / Part Time split carries more weight than just the Total (combined aggregate). Full Time increased by 21.6k
The actual Unemployment Rate is of secondary importance and this month's rate has been further skewered by a very weak Participation rate.
  • #85,044
  • Oct 8, 2014 9:58pm Oct 8, 2014 9:58pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
There is only ONE WAY for the RBA to truly talk down the AUD - any guessers?
Saying they're thinking of cutting interest rates.
  • #85,045
  • Oct 8, 2014 10:19pm Oct 8, 2014 10:19pm
Quoting RBlackburn
{quote} Saying they're thinking of cutting interest rates.
No, not suggesting they're thinking of that, just saying, if they really want the AUD down a significant amount, that'll be their only option IMO...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #85,046
  • Oct 8, 2014 10:22pm Oct 8, 2014 10:22pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
No, not suggesting they're thinking of that, just saying, if they really want the AUD down a significant amount, that'll be their only option IMO...
Makes sense...

EUR/AUD short should be good again in a few hours...
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #85,047
  • Oct 8, 2014 10:23pm Oct 8, 2014 10:23pm
Looks like Aussie is exhausted and about to get dumped just below todays R1 (0.8883)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Andysnap_077.png Size: 58 KB
  • #85,048
  • Oct 8, 2014 10:26pm Oct 8, 2014 10:26pm
Ok sorry i'll rephrase..


Quoting VaBikePacker
There is only ONE WAY for the RBA to truly talk down the AUD - any guessers?
My guess is... By saying they're thinking of cutting interest rates.
  • #85,049
  • Oct 8, 2014 10:27pm Oct 8, 2014 10:27pm
Quoting RBlackburn
Ok sorry i'll rephrase.. {quote} My guess is... By saying they're thinking of cutting interest rates.
Or if they said "we're thinking about cutting interest rates"
  • #85,050
  • Oct 8, 2014 10:35pm Oct 8, 2014 10:35pm
Quoting RBlackburn
Or if they said "we're thinking about cutting interest rates"
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #85,051
  • Oct 8, 2014 10:38pm Oct 8, 2014 10:38pm
Quoting RBlackburn
{quote} Or if they said "we're thinking about cutting interest rates"
Now the other component - How much of a cut would it take for a flee from AUD?
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #85,052
  • Oct 8, 2014 10:43pm Oct 8, 2014 10:43pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} Now the other component - How much of a cut would it take for a flee from AUD?
Imo.. any cut at all would start a huge sell-off as rates have been stable for a while...
The initial exiting from positions start a chain reaction and would cause such a downturn it wouldn't be viable to hold aussie long for swap.
  • #85,053
  • Oct 8, 2014 10:46pm Oct 8, 2014 10:46pm
Quoting RBlackburn
Imo.. any cut at all would start a huge sell-off as rates have been stable for a while... The initial exiting from positions start a chain reaction and would cause such a downturn it wouldn't be viable to hold aussie long for swap.
I agree... except the Aussie chart is bullish for at least the next 6 weeks, which -- I guess -- tells me that the RBA won't be cutting rates within that time frame, or even speak of it!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #85,054
  • Oct 8, 2014 10:46pm Oct 8, 2014 10:46pm
Testing resistance again.. it's actually only 8881
If we don't hold below here we'll see 0.8900 shortly
1min chart..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Andysnap_078.png Size: 68 KB
  • #85,055
  • Oct 8, 2014 10:49pm Oct 8, 2014 10:49pm
Trading this potential move using silver as a proxy...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Andysnap_079.png Size: 74 KB
  • #85,056
  • Oct 8, 2014 10:50pm Oct 8, 2014 10:50pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} I agree... except the Aussie chart is bullish for at least the next 6 weeks, which -- I guess -- tells me that the RBA won't be cutting rates within that time frame, or even speak of it!
  • #85,057
  • Oct 8, 2014 10:56pm Oct 8, 2014 10:56pm
here's one of the projects I'm working on
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ss2.jpg Size: 642 KB
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #85,058
  • Oct 8, 2014 10:56pm Oct 8, 2014 10:56pm
Swing Failure on the weekly coincided with Morgan Stanley calls for the AUD/USD to be around 76c (beautiful call to gather the liquidity to exits shorts and gain longs).

Most immediate resistance point is .89 but if we break this I would be looking at .92 for a retest of the range breakout. This pair will head lower, just the big boys looking to push price to a better entry point for shorts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD_USD Weekly.PNG Size: 79 KB
  • #85,059
  • Oct 8, 2014 10:58pm Oct 8, 2014 10:58pm
Interesting... gold & silver pushing higher but aussie doesn't wan't to budge...
  • #85,060
  • Oct 8, 2014 11:00pm Oct 8, 2014 11:00pm
Quoting smash1820
here's one of the projects I'm working on {image}
Looks ok.. some kind of MTF indicator or bot...??
Your should press ctrl+G to clear those grids in the background it's hard to read otherwise
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