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Counter-trend trading

  • #21
  • Oct 7, 2014 7:02pm Oct 7, 2014 7:02pm
Quoting Ullen
{quote} Thank you my friend. I do have a set of indicators yes. BUT it is just to analyse market and know what the market manipulators are doing with the price. I have no adx, stoch, ma etc. My entries are based on what i see on the chart. The more trades you do, the better your feeling of the market will get. But i have found something very special that i trust and use for analyzing. I am interested in your system as well. It's so fascinating how so many different concepts can succed in forex, even though most fail. Welcome

i just use a trend indicator that's generally correct and doesnt repaint. sadly it still give me false signals though but its generally correct so i just open multiple trades and close some with early profits and let the rest run. so far so good ^^. And yeah your right, most do fail for some reasons, i guess many people just refuse to close losing trades
  • #22
  • Oct 7, 2014 7:04pm Oct 7, 2014 7:04pm
no hate
no offense
I even dont know you. how can I hate you ?

you got it wrong as you got trading wrong & named the trend as your enemy.

I wish you good luck with your enemy & I will be watching. I am watching because you are publishing

GL

Quoting Ullen
{quote} Oh, i have my first hater.. I'll make sure to post updates on my account to prove that i am doing the right thing. Anyway thanks for passing through, you'll might get suprised
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
  • #23
  • Oct 7, 2014 8:01pm Oct 7, 2014 8:01pm
60 pips Counter trade very fast.

Trend is your enemy guys, defeat it
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Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #24
  • Oct 7, 2014 8:37pm Oct 7, 2014 8:37pm
“One Man's Ceiling Is Another Man's Floor”
  • #25
  • Oct 7, 2014 10:05pm Oct 7, 2014 10:05pm
Quoting Ullen
Here i will post an example of a basic counter-trend trade on the 15M timeframe. When you find out a way to spot weakening in trend, or another way to predict future price, you should be able to trade this method without any loss at all. I've added a SL of 10 pips because i don't have time to manage more than 5 trades at a time. With a win rate at 70-80% and targets bigger than SL you should see that i'm making money in the long run. This concept is very very profitable IF you trade it right! If you don't trade...
Do you really believe that you should be able to trade this method without any loss at all?
i think your key to success is having smaller Sl than pofit target.
  • #26
  • Oct 7, 2014 11:01pm Oct 7, 2014 11:01pm
Hmm with a trend there is no level to target. For a counter you at least have the trend start as a target. Is this one of the thing you are implying?
I want more brain power!
  • #27
  • Oct 8, 2014 12:00am Oct 8, 2014 12:00am
Quoting Ullen
Hello FF. I will begin my mission to prove that trend is your enemy, and post pictures of counter-trend trades.
Hey just want to thank you for sharing the top movers indi.. its a great tool to get a feel for the overall market, cheers.
Good luck with your trading.
  • #28
  • Oct 8, 2014 12:21am Oct 8, 2014 12:21am
Quoting Ullen
Here i will post an example of a basic counter-trend trade on the 15M timeframe. When you find out a way to spot weakening in trend, or another way to predict future price, you should be able to trade this method without any loss at all. I've added a SL of 10 pips because i don't have time to manage more than 5 trades at a time. With a win rate at 70-80% and targets bigger than SL you should see that i'm making money in the long run. This concept is very very profitable IF you trade it right! If you don't trade it right you will loose youre account....
you are kidding ... it s not counter trend ... it's high and lows picking, s/r trading.
everebody is doing this. i use alike concept for high liquid markets (es and 6e). but for low liquid markets (nyse) the trend is your friend.
happy trading . nice entries
it's o'k to win ...
  • #29
  • Oct 8, 2014 12:29am Oct 8, 2014 12:29am
Quoting Ullen
Hello FF. I will begin my mission to prove that trend is your enemy, and post pictures of counter-trend trades. I will never take a trade in direction of short term trend, only counter-trend. Counter trend is when you would expect price to reach a level in the opposite direction of trend. Could be below the point where the original trend started, or far below. Trend gives you everything to win when trading against, and everything to loose when trading with. Think about this carefully. The secret is in that sentence. Another thing to remember when...
That is why i love Harmonics.
  • #30
  • Oct 8, 2014 6:37am Oct 8, 2014 6:37am
Quoting zenseven
{quote} you are kidding ... it s not counter trend ... it's high and lows picking, s/r trading. everebody is doing this. i use alike concept for high liquid markets (es and 6e). but for low liquid markets (nyse) the trend is your friend. happy trading . nice entries
No it's not. I have no idea where s/r is when i'm trading. The market is not moving according to this. You should worry about what makes the price move, and in what way it's moving
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #31
  • Oct 8, 2014 6:43am Oct 8, 2014 6:43am
where is the top mover indi?
Don't speculate trade with surety.
  • #32
  • Oct 8, 2014 6:45am Oct 8, 2014 6:45am
Quoting KingHussain
where is the top mover indi?
I don't know what this is. The arrows on my chart is just something i made to show my entries.
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #33
  • Oct 8, 2014 6:48am Oct 8, 2014 6:48am
Quoting zenseven
{quote} you are kidding ... it s not counter trend ... it's high and lows picking, s/r trading. everebody is doing this. i use alike concept for high liquid markets (es and 6e). but for low liquid markets (nyse) the trend is your friend. happy trading . nice entries
s/r trading can be good, but your not always ahead of the game. Market innefficiencies allow you to profit all the time, as long as you can spot them.

There are many ways to trade, but to piggyback off the big players consistently, unconvention most likely has to be called upon.

MM
  • #34
  • Edited 7:08am Oct 8, 2014 6:49am | Edited 7:08am
Great counter trend trade!

EUR/NZD Short
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Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #35
  • Oct 8, 2014 7:00am Oct 8, 2014 7:00am
Trading solely against the trend is a recipe for disaster. Its okay in forex and can work but you should also try and catch trends because it is SO much easier not only on psychology but the risk factor too can also be tilted much more in your favor. I have learned the hard way on this. The only reason fades work is because of the average order flow in price is always searching for highest volume of stops close by. So that is why you usually see price fakeout after clearing a 'resistance' level or whatever you want to call it despite the direction afterwards. There are lots of orders above a say major resistance if price has already been traveling up and once those are hit then where will likely be the next big cluster? You bet it will be lower! *UNLESS we have some kind of news event or event that has a major influence on the price and can cause price to continue in moving with the trend. Counter trend is very advanced and glad to see you have something working for you.
Wish you success
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #36
  • Oct 8, 2014 7:05am Oct 8, 2014 7:05am
Quoting Rtm
Trading solely against the trend is a recipe for disaster. Its okay in forex and can work but you should also try and catch trends because it is SO much easier not only on psychology but the risk factor too can also be tilted much more in your favor. I have learned the hard way on this. The only reason fades work is because of the average order flow in price is always searching for highest volume of stops close by. So that is why you usually see price fakeout after clearing a 'resistance' level or whatever you want to call it despite the direction...
Thank you!

In my opinion risk is tilted against you when trading with the trend. If it turns (and it will) you will be left with a big loss or SL hit. You know that the trend will turn. Use this as an advantage.
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #37
  • Oct 8, 2014 11:14am Oct 8, 2014 11:14am
in my view you are trading , only following the momentum, the flow-movement of a price
there is no relation with the trend at all. that is not counter trend, but only not looking at the trend
your thread titled, must be considered.
i hope you hold your profit litle longger, to see the power of a trend my friend, an evidence
  • #38
  • Oct 8, 2014 11:56am Oct 8, 2014 11:56am
Quoting Ullen
Hello FF. I will begin my mission to prove that trend is your enemy, and post pictures of counter-trend trades. I will never take a trade in direction of short term trend, only counter-trend. Counter trend is when you would expect price to reach a level in the opposite direction of trend. Could be below the point where the original trend started, or far below. Trend gives you everything to win when trading against, and everything to loose when trading with. Think about this carefully. The secret is in that sentence. Another thing to remember when...
A little over a year ago I wouldve thought you might be crazy..I think a bit differently now, hmm..perhaps that means the younger me would think the older me crazy.

Well, heres a Jan 2014 till present algo backtest of one of the systems I designed that (I think) does more or less what youre talking about, but without considering the price. I think your statement has merit, I think it is possible to be 'Trend Agnostic' yet succeed.

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  • #39
  • Oct 8, 2014 11:56am Oct 8, 2014 11:56am
Surely, to trade counter trend you must first know what the trend is, so the trend is actually your friend in disguise.
I have to say that in the long term, a trader who buys low consistently and holds indefinitely will invariably be more profitable to the trader who sells high and has a set TP.
  • #40
  • Oct 8, 2014 1:56pm Oct 8, 2014 1:56pm
which currency?

Quoting Thoughts
{quote} A little over a year ago I wouldve thought you might be crazy..I think a bit differently now, hmm..perhaps that means the younger me would think the older me crazy. Well, heres a Jan 2014 till present algo backtest of one of the systems I designed that (I think) does more or less what youre talking about, but without considering the price. I think your statement has merit, I think it is possible to be 'Trend Agnostic' yet succeed. {image}
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
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