Trading is as simple as ABCD

Knew I shouldn't be trading this morning just not thinking straight at all!!! Just hit a sell trade by mistake, was poised ready to sell but then it jumped up and I hit it completely my mistake!!!

Thought it might hold but then it rushed up the page so closed it out..

Something just doesn't feel right this morning.....

Would you believe it, gone down now past my entry so should of left it alone , Oh well thats 2 mistakes now then , entry and close .....

Nope just not happening for me today, another 4 pip loser on EURCAD nice AB move but nogo couldn't even squeeze a 2 pip BE out of it....

Its funny but I just don't feel right. Can't read the price action today so best to call it a day I think lick my wounds -13 pips and leave it at that.

Just gonna see if there's an absolute dead ringer setup in the next 30 mins and if not I'm offski!!!

Hi Clive

Didn't trade at all yesterday pa was a bit of a mess when I was in front of the computer.

Just too late this morning for the earlier move. GBPAUD top 1/2 on the TT list. Was called away and put a 10 pip trail on. My TP was below the level so wouldn't have been hit. So +14 is not the biggest trade ever but I'll take it.

Nice one Mr V.

Just having one more go at this USDJPY moved to BE quickly but its got 2 choices from here and I'm not feeling too confident today...

Better entry...

Nope both stopped out at BE thought I had that GBPAUD for a minute there as went up about 10 pips and was looking to break through but nope not to be...With hindsight maybe I should of grabbed those 10 pips but isn't that a sort of revenge trade????

Well that is definitely me done for the day with a -13 pip(-6.5%) day. Don't like these losing sessions too much and to be fair don't have many nowadays but pleased to control it and not go mad chasing every trade afterwards. No revenge trading today which I'm particularly pleased about...



I'm offski lick my wounds and live to fight another day....

Emotional control is important. good job. You are not paid for your time or hard work, you are paid for your discipline and good judgment.

Thanks yep thats what I've got to learn, Discipline....

Looks like I was just one pullback early on USDJPY...




Did you do any this morning???

Not yet. The USDJPY was the correct trade. I did not like the support at 108.00 - 108.10 though, so opted out. Oh well. I will find the next one.

Good morning

Nice early start today but not a lot of action as yet. Been reviewing my performance of late and one thing thats painfully obvious is I get involved in trends before they're trending strongly. Trouble is with the automatic scaling on MT4 it can be deceiving, what looks like very positive price action is actually fairly low key.

Gonna only trade when somethings really trending strongly, maybe 20 plus on my Tindy before I even look at it. Gotta be a bit more selective on my setups too..

Something like this will do nicely...

That 6 pips was as far as the first push got so out at BE but having another go and targeting my 100% fib extension which is realistic as around the BRN 174.00 lets see how this one goes??

Never got to my AB=CD target so closed it out on 2nd failed drive for 11.2 pips and had a couple of more goes but its not going down convincingly yet but looks like it might do soon... Better to stand aside for a minute until it works itself out. had 4 goes in total but nothing stuck. Heres the 4 trades..

I go to BE pretty quickly and I'm sure many guys think I should give it space but its my experience if its going to go it goes if it comes back better out than in I say...

Ok so if you won't go down , how about up then????

Took another 10 out of that move started to falter at 50 level and strong support on way down...

9 trades without loss so going well but mustn't get complacent or think I've got it sussed stay disciplined and follow the price action...

Just gave my whole 20 pips back in this one stupid trade on GBPUSD . Never had a chance to get it to BE!!!

This is my typical losing trade that I lose to nearly every time....

I'm going to bring it back up later and go through why I do it and why it happens so often!!!!

This gentleman is my problem and I'm going to go through it later and get it off my chest and out of my trading once and for all!!!!

Absolute madness but I repeat it with unerring regularity....

Off to work catch up later and go through this shite trade...

Why did you sell on this one? The CCI had not gone to +100. Just trying to see what you are thinking on this one. I also see you added a third MA. Which ones were you using?

Hi Clive,

I'm a bit confused about this, I thought your strategy was about trading the C to D leg after a retracement. As far as I can see, you entered right at the high which turned out to be the end of the initial A to B leg.

Hi

Good question as you quite rightly say no CCI +100 signal so why did I sell where I did??

Well the simple answer is I always talk about trading with the trend , in fact I'm very verbal on trading with a strong trend. Well they don't come much stronger than this move down by GBPJPY and in a strong move like this the pullbacks are fairly small. too small in fact to register a +100 overbought reading, not surprising considering the strength of the move down.

When this happens I tend to just watch the tick box whilst price is pulling back, in this case trending up and just keep dragging my pending order up below the HL's on the tick chart until price reverses sharply normally taking me in and to break even in the same 1 minute candle. Normally it flys down the page from a small pullback like this but unfortunately not this time and came back to knock me off at BE.

So it is inline with my strategy of trading strong trending pairs and entering on the pullbacks (BC move) but when the trend is this strong then its unusual to get a good overbought signal as the trends too strong. You're at most get a couple of green candles in the pullback so instead of trailing the HL's in the tick box, you could just drag pending sell stop under the green candles and trail up the buy stops under their lows by 2 pips until hit. There are 2 earlier green candles in this move that would of worked perfectly with this entry technique.

In fact I did it again on my next entry which did workout OK but I had to sit through a bit of drawdown first, but I don't mind too much when the trend is so strong as it tends to take me into profit sooner or later. Thats the benefit of trading with strong trends...

However one thing to note here is if I had of waited for the "proper entry" of a +100 CCI pullback then it would of been a better entry going to BE swiftly and giving me a few extra pips profit so you have to ask yourself, is the extra risk worth it???



This is however a fairly risky trade and does frequently get me in trouble as my losing trade on GBPUSD illustrates perfectly. Lets have a look at that entry as the perfect example of how not to do it.



This is very similar in that we have a strong move up AB leg and I try the same setup dragging my pending buy stop down the LH's on the tick chart and get pulled in far too early with absolutely no chance of getting to BE, from this point on I'm in trouble and I know it... How do I know it?? because it happens to me so often its untrue. These are my typical big losers when I give up my 20 pips.

There's two questions that need to be answered here, how can I avoid entries like this in the first place and secondly why don't I just close it out soon as it becomes apparent its caught me yet again??? Why wait for the whole 20 pips to be hit???

OK the first question can be answered fairly easily this was not as strong or fast as the gbpjpy trade earlier it took 23 candles for this move as opposed to about half that for the GBPJPY move. There are plenty of red candles(5) in the move already, short pullbacks so we can fully expect a bigger pullback soon. Its ok to take the earlier single candle pullbacks but not later in the move.

The second question is easy to answer too. I held onto the hope that it would turn back up with the trend. Actually if I'd had a 30 pip stop it would of been fine, but where do you stop with bigger stops?? there has to be a point where its over and done, the trend is broken and I get out. That was probably when it failed to drive up, thats when its over for me, with an entry like this.

Now lets look if I had waited for our proper signal the -100 CCI signal?? Its an awesome signal comes back to one of our key levels the 1.6200 level and gives us a perfect signal and an entry that I could of easily got to BE no sweat. And whats more if it had of worked I'm in at a much better level too. Unfortunately it didn't work but at least I had room to get to BE and wouldn't of lost.

So what have I learnt from it all??? Wait for the pullback (BC move) to complete with a CCI overbought (+100) or oversold(-100) condition, just look on the chart I've marked out every CCI signal(-100) and all of them without exception would of survived a 10 pip stop and got me to BE at least and the first 10 would of been at a lower level than my failed entry!!!

So whats the point of trying to catch these momentum moves without a proper pullback??? None whatsoever apart from I might miss the occasional move that just keeps going straight up without pulling back. but they are rare very rare compared to these CCI qualified pullbacks. One final point and its a major point too. Most of these entries only need a 10 pip stop so even if I do get one wrong I will only lose 10 pips not 20. Now if I can keep my losers small thats an enormous benefit to my account.

Another benefit of waiting for it to pullback to one of our key levels means my stop gets behind that key level to protect it.

But hey!! Surely thats always been the plan? I hear you shout and you're right so why don't I wait for these qualified pullbacks???

Now this is the million dollar question for me, why do I keep taking these risky, no sense, crazy trades??? The answer I'm afraid is even more crazy than these entries. Its because I'm more frightened of missing out on a good trade than I am on losing my money. Thats the bottom line I'm terrified its going to go without me??? Crazy thing is if it does go without pulling right back then 9 times out of 10 it will go forward 10 pips and come back 8 anyway so I'll be a couple of pips worst off.

How mad is that???? Is it really worth all that extra risk for a couple of extra pips??? I don't think so...

To finish lets just have a quick look at a chart today with these oversold CCI signals at key levels only, remember the key levels are:

 

1. Last 1 min support or resistance levels
2. 25 levels
3. the 5min and 15 min 35LWMAs
4. Yesterdays high,low or close.

One last thing Capstone mentioned my 3rd lwma well I've been experimenting a bit with these LWMAs and I'm currently using a 35 lwma as the trend for any chart, sometimes I have the 1 min 35 lwma on my chart which is the 3rd one but normally I just have the 5 min (35x5=175) and the 15 min (35x15=525) so i can see their trends and interestingly enough this GBPAUD chart behaves very nicely when price is above the 5 min and 15 min 35lwmas.

I know I'm going over the same old stuff here time after time but to be honest its more for me than anyone else, I have to learn to only trade my signals for a high probability trade but even more importantly I've gotta learn you won't catch em all!!!