{quote} my GU calc make tp at 6040 entry was at 6118
139 pips
- #10,028
- Oct 7, 2014 3:22pm Oct 7, 2014 3:22pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Left Leg In, Right Leg Out! | 5,792 Posts
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
Hi,
Not sure if this will help some people or not; however, I am hoping at the very least it sparks discussion so that we are clear on what the TZ's actual mean and how to spot them etc. My chart could be way off along with my calculations so happy for feedback.
If you look at the image I have drawn either a black line, or if more than one pip movement drawn a black box. This line or box is only drawn at areas of price where the prior six bars or post six bars are not touched by another bar. This is how I am interpreting H. There is a mid-bar so H is 6 price bars to the left and 6 price bars to the right.
I draw these lines and boxes on a chart by first drawing a horizontal line anywhere on the chart that is 13 bars wide, I then stick my cursor on the mid-point of this line and move the mid-point up and down each price bar noting if the left of the mid-point is touched, or right of the mid-point is touched. If it's not touched on either side I draw in the line or box (if the distance without being touched on either side is greater than 1 pip).
After these lines and boxes have been drawn one can calculate the following:
- Between the red vertical, dotted line on the left and the vertical, red dotted line on the right there are 93, 5 min price bars.
- There are 13 black lines or boxes drawn between this period, meaning there are 13 / 93 or 14% of the time where a price bar has a point in it that is not touched by the previous 6 bars or following 6 bars, which also means 86% of the time they are touched.
- There are 7 black lines or boxes drawn in the middle of price bars and not at the ends (indicated by the green stars). If you take away these middle price bar TZ's and view them as price just continuing to move in the existing direction (this is will be fractal of course), then there are only 6 bars, so 6 / 93 or 6% of the time where the price bar has a point in it that is not touched by the previous 6 bars or following 6 bars, which also means 94% of the time they are touched.
- These statistics are based around 'price bars' not actual price / every pip / tick. Trying to measure how much price was hit (thickness of box etc.) in each of these bars, as compared to all the prices on every bar would be a monumental task and would require zooming in to each and every tick - not practical.
In my opinion, the above is significant in that we know price bounces around from bar to bar, within that 13 price bar range (6 price bars left, 1 bar mid-point, 6 bars right) as it moves with only 14% of the time not back-filling when taking into consideration mid-bar TZ's and ONLY 6% not back-filling when looking at TZ's at the end of bars. VERY interesting stuff and worth taking a close look at.
Again, looking for feedback on the above and hopefully all the information I have presented is accurate as I would hate to throw someone off with false information.
The main goal was to hopefully bring a little clarity to someone new reading this thread because it can be overwhelming at first and until it clicks it will drive you nuts trying to figure out all the lingo, TZ's, how they are drawn, what the 94% statistic means, etc.
Cheers.
Not sure if this will help some people or not; however, I am hoping at the very least it sparks discussion so that we are clear on what the TZ's actual mean and how to spot them etc. My chart could be way off along with my calculations so happy for feedback.
If you look at the image I have drawn either a black line, or if more than one pip movement drawn a black box. This line or box is only drawn at areas of price where the prior six bars or post six bars are not touched by another bar. This is how I am interpreting H. There is a mid-bar so H is 6 price bars to the left and 6 price bars to the right.
I draw these lines and boxes on a chart by first drawing a horizontal line anywhere on the chart that is 13 bars wide, I then stick my cursor on the mid-point of this line and move the mid-point up and down each price bar noting if the left of the mid-point is touched, or right of the mid-point is touched. If it's not touched on either side I draw in the line or box (if the distance without being touched on either side is greater than 1 pip).
After these lines and boxes have been drawn one can calculate the following:
- Between the red vertical, dotted line on the left and the vertical, red dotted line on the right there are 93, 5 min price bars.
- There are 13 black lines or boxes drawn between this period, meaning there are 13 / 93 or 14% of the time where a price bar has a point in it that is not touched by the previous 6 bars or following 6 bars, which also means 86% of the time they are touched.
- There are 7 black lines or boxes drawn in the middle of price bars and not at the ends (indicated by the green stars). If you take away these middle price bar TZ's and view them as price just continuing to move in the existing direction (this is will be fractal of course), then there are only 6 bars, so 6 / 93 or 6% of the time where the price bar has a point in it that is not touched by the previous 6 bars or following 6 bars, which also means 94% of the time they are touched.
- These statistics are based around 'price bars' not actual price / every pip / tick. Trying to measure how much price was hit (thickness of box etc.) in each of these bars, as compared to all the prices on every bar would be a monumental task and would require zooming in to each and every tick - not practical.
In my opinion, the above is significant in that we know price bounces around from bar to bar, within that 13 price bar range (6 price bars left, 1 bar mid-point, 6 bars right) as it moves with only 14% of the time not back-filling when taking into consideration mid-bar TZ's and ONLY 6% not back-filling when looking at TZ's at the end of bars. VERY interesting stuff and worth taking a close look at.
Again, looking for feedback on the above and hopefully all the information I have presented is accurate as I would hate to throw someone off with false information.
The main goal was to hopefully bring a little clarity to someone new reading this thread because it can be overwhelming at first and until it clicks it will drive you nuts trying to figure out all the lingo, TZ's, how they are drawn, what the 94% statistic means, etc.
Cheers.
- #10,032
- Oct 7, 2014 5:38pm Oct 7, 2014 5:38pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Left Leg In, Right Leg Out! | 5,792 Posts
Hi, {image} Not sure if this will help some people or not; Cheers.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
- #10,036
- Oct 7, 2014 9:47pm Oct 7, 2014 9:47pm
Don't forget to start your analysis from higher timeframe guys! {image}
Thanks Vlady
Similarity can change your life !
targetin around 1.2572
