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  • #201
  • Oct 3, 2014 6:33pm Oct 3, 2014 6:33pm
I just finished my backtest for the period Jan 2, 2014 to date. I use OANDA Canada for my broker so some results may vary from person to person. This was for the EU London open. The signal bar was the 2:55 am EST bar.

My review was to determine how many losses on a daily trade would maximize my return. If you were to have a max of 2 TP, I would have gained 400 pips. This would have only been a risk of 30 pips max per day. By doing this, I could risk .6% of my account assuming a 2% daily risk per trade.

If I were to go for 3 TP, I would have gained 1040 pips for the same period. This would be a max risk of 70 pips per day. This would also result in lower my initial risk to .3% to limit risk to 2% of my account.

For 4 TP, the gain would have been 960 pips, indicating much more benefit than 3TP. This would be for a risk of 150 pips. So I don't see much benefit and my initial risk would be reduced to .15%.

So, for this strategy, I going to proceed with a max number of losses per trade of 3TP. There is logic to stopping after the third loss since the loss rebounds would nullify any potential fibonacci retracement or elliott wave effects.
  • #202
  • Oct 4, 2014 1:20pm Oct 4, 2014 1:20pm
Quoting aahmad29
My job is done to present a strategy to traders so now i am not posting anything here. If anybody wants to modify this then bring some forward testing and it would help others. I am not answering the PM. Thanks.
Welldone Aahmad thank you for this wonderful simple trading system.
Only Jesus Saves
  • #203
  • Oct 6, 2014 5:13am Oct 6, 2014 5:13am
Quoting StormChaser
I just finished my backtest for the period Jan 2, 2014 to date. I use OANDA Canada for my broker so some results may vary from person to person. This was for the EU London open. The signal bar was the 2:55 am EST bar. My review was to determine how many losses on a daily trade would maximize my return. If you were to have a max of 2 TP, I would have gained 400 pips. This would have only been a risk of 30 pips max per day. By doing this, I could risk .6% of my account assuming a 2% daily risk per trade. If I were to go for 3 TP, I would have gained...
Hi, your finding is very interesting!

Did u also do the testing on NY open as well?

IMO as long as we have set max 3 orders to lose, it wont affect the whole result in a long run.

Thanks again!
  • #204
  • Oct 6, 2014 7:58am Oct 6, 2014 7:58am
I have only tested on London open. I have fulltime job and kids go to school at nyo. I am now testing GBP USD at London open.
  • #205
  • Oct 6, 2014 9:42am Oct 6, 2014 9:42am
Quoting StormChaser
I have only tested on London open. I have fulltime job and kids go to school at nyo. I am now testing GBP USD at London open.
i got a question here. Like you said you use maximum 3 orders to TP and you would risk 0.3% per trade. Assume that you have 100% winning percentage. However, 0.3%*20*12=72% in return for the whole year? as the winning percentage is high and max 3 orders, would you increase the initial lots size to achieve higher return?
  • #206
  • Oct 6, 2014 8:37pm Oct 6, 2014 8:37pm
Quoting wongsiio
{quote} i got a question here. Like you said you use maximum 3 orders to TP and you would risk 0.3% per trade. Assume that you have 100% winning percentage. However, 0.3%*20*12=72% in return for the whole year? as the winning percentage is high and max 3 orders, would you increase the initial lots size to achieve higher return?
I will continue to use a .3% risk. As the account grows, I will raise the lot size accordingly. I use babypips to calculate lot size.
  • #207
  • Oct 6, 2014 9:50pm Oct 6, 2014 9:50pm
Quoting StormChaser
{quote} I will continue to use a .3% risk. As the account grows, I will raise the lot size accordingly. I use babypips to calculate lot size.
ok~ but with 0.3% initial risk , max 3 orders means you have 0.3%, 0.6%, 0.9% which total 1.8% risk in total and you would have to risk 1.8% to get 0.3% a day, daily RR ratio would be 6:1, in case of over 3 orders then you have to win 6 orders in a row to make it even. would it be a bit too much?
  • #208
  • Oct 7, 2014 12:03am Oct 7, 2014 12:03am
Quoting StormChaser
I just finished my backtest for the period Jan 2, 2014 to date. I use OANDA Canada for my broker so some results may vary from person to person. This was for the EU London open. The signal bar was the 2:55 am EST bar. My review was to determine how many losses on a daily trade would maximize my return. If you were to have a max of 2 TP, I would have gained 400 pips. This would have only been a risk of 30 pips max per day. By doing this, I could risk .6% of my account assuming a 2% daily risk per trade. If I were to go for 3 TP, I would have gained...
Good Job
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #209
  • Oct 7, 2014 2:09am Oct 7, 2014 2:09am
Quoting wongsiio
{quote} ok~ but with 0.3% initial risk , max 3 orders means you have 0.3%, 0.6%, 0.9% which total 1.8% risk in total and you would have to risk 1.8% to get 0.3% a day, daily RR ratio would be 6:1, in case of over 3 orders then you have to win 6 orders in a row to make it even. would it be a bit too much?
Based on the backtesting, a profit was still made using this risk tolerance. However, I understand that past results are not conclusive of future performance. Only time will tell if I can make a profit.

Today went nicely in my favor. 10 pips in less than 10 minutes.
  • #210
  • Oct 7, 2014 5:04am Oct 7, 2014 5:04am
Quoting StormChaser
{quote} Based on the backtesting, a profit was still made using this risk tolerance. However, I understand that past results are not conclusive of future performance. Only time will tell if I can make a profit. Today went nicely in my favor. 10 pips in less than 10 minutes.
I wanted to share here that if we do comparison of LO and NYO then both have their own advantages. But i think LO is better when you face slippage issue. Slippage is higher in NYO as compare to LO.
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #211
  • Oct 7, 2014 5:42am Oct 7, 2014 5:42am
Quoting aahmad29
{quote} I wanted to share here that if we do comparison of LO and NYO then both have their own advantages. But i think LO is better when you face slippage issue. Slippage is higher in NYO as compare to LO.
Hi aahmad29,

I got some question to ask you~ with this strategy, we will be needing the price is trending, do you have any criteria to identify the volatility is enough to trade?
  • #212
  • Oct 7, 2014 2:59pm Oct 7, 2014 2:59pm
Quoting wongsiio
{quote} Hi aahmad29, I got some question to ask you~ with this strategy, we will be needing the price is trending, do you have any criteria to identify the volatility is enough to trade?
One of the highest volatility times is at the market open. Most of the time, this strategy seems to catch the early movement. But if it starts to range, I have set the max stop loss at 3 times.
  • #213
  • Oct 7, 2014 11:50pm Oct 7, 2014 11:50pm
Quoting wongsiio
{quote} Hi aahmad29, I got some question to ask you~ with this strategy, we will be needing the price is trending, do you have any criteria to identify the volatility is enough to trade?
High volatility time is when market open. Now i have read different posts and traders are worried about slippage and spread. Only solution is that if you want to avoid slippage then trade LO and your broker account should have 2 or less than 2 spread.

There is no other criteria to find volatility and just use market open time.
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #214
  • Oct 8, 2014 2:50am Oct 8, 2014 2:50am
aahmad,
Hello and you have a good method in the making.
From what I see you are trading the ORB (open range breakout) on the 5 minute chart this can be adapted to the 15 minute and hour chart, many books have been written about these times.
Compounding and 5 min chart is difficult but I do not have any statistics for it, I wish you good fortune with your trading.
Other pairs to look at being g/u - e/j
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #215
  • Oct 8, 2014 9:10am Oct 8, 2014 9:10am
Nice probability system.
It is good for volatile pairs such as :EU/JPY, GBP/JPY, EU/AUD, NZD/JPY, EU/USD, GPB/USD. One can get sixty pips a day trading these pairs. I will be giving some more feedback later.

aahmad,
Finally you showed some "Love For All And Hatred For None" by disclosing how you trade. Congratulation.

Max
  • #216
  • Oct 9, 2014 12:01pm Oct 9, 2014 12:01pm
Quoting maxwell-eqtn
Nice probability system. It is good for volatile pairs such as :EU/JPY, GBP/JPY, EU/AUD, NZD/JPY, EU/USD, GPB/USD. One can get sixty pips a day trading these pairs. I will be giving some more feedback later. aahmad, Finally you showed some "Love For All And Hatred For None" by disclosing how you trade. Congratulation. Max
"Love For All And Hatred For None" is not just statement, if world follow it then there will be peace everywhere.
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #217
  • Oct 10, 2014 7:29am Oct 10, 2014 7:29am
Dear Ahmaad,

Greeting from Indonesia,...

First time follow this method today,...

2 rounds,.. and get 10 pips,...

Thanks,... GOD Bless You,...

Besr Regards,

Budi
  • #218
  • Oct 10, 2014 8:59am Oct 10, 2014 8:59am
Quoting aahmad29
{quote} "Love For All And Hatred For None" is not just statement, if world follow it then there will be peace everywhere.


Easier Said Than Done. Lots of people in the world are killing even right now because they believe they are Matyrs showing "Love For All And Hatred For None".
  • #219
  • Oct 10, 2014 12:14pm Oct 10, 2014 12:14pm
A bad morning for me. Got on the wrong side of the trend and stopped after 3 losses. Can't win every time or it would be holy grail.
  • #220
  • Oct 10, 2014 1:41pm Oct 10, 2014 1:41pm
Quoting StormChaser
A bad morning for me. Got on the wrong side of the trend and stopped after 3 losses. Can't win every time or it would be holy grail.
Can you give some detail? Is it LO or NYO. LO shouldn't be failure or probably i have some wrong settings. I am using Sonicr Access Panel.

LO hit TP at level2 and NYO hit TP at level 1
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Love for all; Hatred for none.
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