All Majors and Gold

Good point. I like the charts your posting there with the harmonic pattern. Definitely will short gold on test of 1200 which i expect asia to drive it up to today.

Yes G, pattern is there, but triple bottom? I am watching but would not surprise me if it failed.

Relevant article courtesy of Lalu who brought it to my attention:

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com

Triple bottom is going to be broken
old age people pumped jobs statistics
why old people working because the bankers killed all their life savings.

Now lots of noise euro going down. Therefore usd is bullish and gold lower.
We might finally see 1030 soon.
The longer they pump the usd the lower gold will drop.
Goal for gold IMO is 8xx.

More noise. Pro usd
http://www.efxnews.com/story/26357/e...ecade-barclays

therefore 1.3xxx for gbpusd

Excellent. So the trade is to long dollar, short gold. I like it.

reading article is reminding of what I was looking at earlier this year....

http://jugglingdynamite.com/2014/10/...ecious-metals/


Rising U$ pounding precious metals
Posted on October 3, 2014 by Danielle Park

One is reminded of all the people who wrote and spoke so passionately about why gold and silver could only go higher…another sad example of buying a story without understanding the capital cycles driving it.
Today the headline ‘strong US jobs report’ gives the Fed further justification to continue on their desired and politically necessary retreat from ‘Quantitative Easing’. This is supportive for the dollar. Now through the 86 resistance line (far right below), the 100 level is the next test area ahead.
http://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-conte...pt-30-2014.png
A rebounding dollar will continue to translate US multinational earnings lower (the reverse of what helped push S&P 500 earnings well above historic norms as the dollar fell). It will also hamper US exports and intensify deflationary effects in other export-focused economies who are all battling each other to make their goods cheap for foreign consumers. It is also likely to continue driving metal prices lower for a while longer: gold is -9% over the past year, and -38% from the 2011 peak, silver is -24% over the past year and -65% since 2011.
As the long term chart of gold shows below, now hovering just above previous support at 1180, a failure to hold this level suggests a retest into the 700 to 1000 orange band last tested in the 2006- 2008 liquidity crisis.
http://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-conte...Oct-2-2014.png

what would happen to usd if this EBOLA becomes more of a problem? technical bounce is nearing on usd pairs....hmmmmm

"President Obola" - Obama, Ebola, and Creating a Third World America
By stephanie | Friday, October 3, 2014 at 4:30 pm
A verified case of Ebola lands in America, and what is Obama busy doing? Telling a crowd of illegal immigration activists that "America is not Congress" and that "no force on earth can stop us."
At what point do we start to recognize that a sitting president courting an army of non-citizens to overturn the wishes of the American people (via Congress) is in fact orchestrating a soft coup?
Meanwhile, our borders remain wide open during one of the biggest potential pandemic threats in history, and the head of the CDC, Dr. Thomas Frieden, is telling us that stopping flights from West Africa would somehow make the Ebola contagion more widespread. Wow. Seriously? This is the same guy who told us that Obama has "leaned forward" in regards to the Ebola crisis, using a slogan that not only graces MSNBC broadcasts but stems from Communist agitprop of the 20th century.
Political hacks like the CDC Director need to be removed from their positions of power. They could conceivably kill us all if they continue on their death march to stupid. But they are, in some ways, a symptom, and not the root cause.
That these "leaders" are self-destructive and gunning to destroy America is not "conspiracy theory." But it is simple, run-of-the-mill hubris, sheer stupidity and utter incompetence backed by an ideological agenda that is fundamentalist and religious in nature. It is Third World government dressed up in a politically correct package - insane ideologues covered up in slick packaging and TV make-up.
Quite a few people believe that a nefarious New World Order may be behind the spread of Ebola as a form of population control. Who needs shadowy men smoking cigars in back rooms when you have arrogant blind partisans in charge?
These folks honestly think they have everything under control. They believe their own hype.
I had a very bizarre dream this morning. I was visiting a dystopian, post-apocalyptic city where the young people had access to some sort of device or drug that covered up any sort of disease, broken bone, or injury. In effect, no matter what their real bodies looked like, the holographic device or drug would make them believe they were perfectly healthy.
In the dream, I jumped from a diving board into a pool that was too shallow, breaking both legs. With the holographic illusion, it appeared as if I did not have broken bones. In fact, I was able to walk and otherwise behave as if I was not hurt.
Underneath the illusion, the injuries to my legs were getting worse because they were not being treated. And this was the case for everyone in this futuristic land. The people who appeared healthy on the surface were all rotting on the inside, and many were in danger of dying soon because of their neglect of their injuries.
The meaning of this dream is obvious to me, because it is a metaphor for what's happening in America right now. We are those people in my dream, broken, injured, and disease-ridden, but we've bought into a holographic lie that everything is OK.
Why isn't there more outcry about flights coming in from Liberia?
Check out the recent petitions on Whitehouse.gov.
There are a few about restricting flights from West Africa, but the top one only has a few thousand signatures as of this writing.
Other petitions include one for making BBQ the "National Dish of America," a petition to make Halloween a federal holiday, and one to "Make circumcision illegal for all men, women, and intersex people under age 18."
One of the top petitions, with over 100,000 signatures, blares the headline:
"Remove offensive state in Glendale, CA public park"
I had to click on this, because I could not figure out how a state fit into a Glendale park. Oops! It was a typo - they meant "statue." Yes. A statue in a local park, which is under local jurisdiction I presume, is worthy of over 100,000 signatures because that should be a top priority of the federal government. Doh!
So can we really blame Obama for it all? Obama is just a reflection of us. He is the holographic image of the slick, cool, sophisticated multicultural America that has so transcended the old jingoism, that we've determined that keeping flights open to West Africa is for the best, because after all, how can we help those people and contain Ebola if we can't fly there? (Never mind that there can be different rules for civilian and military travel!)
We're a nation of self-righteous outrage so fearful of criticizing another country or culture that a statue in a park - recognizing victims of wartime sex slavery - might possibly offend some Japanese-Americans, and so is worthy of a federal response.
It is this same broken, deluded populace that will meekly sit by and let our borders be overrun, bringing Ebola, enterovirus, and mysterious illnesses that cause paralysis - all because we are mesmerized with the false image of our own manufactured enlightenment

sorry some reading which I was catching up on and thought it's worth sharing.....

What CNBC Isn’t Telling You About the End of QE
October 1, 2014 | Author Bill Bonner



An Increase in Phantom Wealth …
The Dow was down a little on Monday. But it was still above the 17,000 level. Gold was up a little. It’s still above the $1,200-an-ounce mark. We have been very wrong about US stocks. We did not expect them to go this high or stay this high for this long. So our opinion on what will happen next in the stock market is of doubtful value (at least to us).

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media...0-DRE-blog.png(Photo via uschamberfoundation.org)

Still, our guess is that the stock market is now broadly rolling over in a vast topping-out exercise. Looking back, it seems obvious (as it always does) that QE did little to help the real economy. But it did wonders for stocks and real estate. Our friend and former World Bank economist Richard Duncan explains how it worked:

“Between 2009 and 2013, the government borrowed approximately $5.8 trillion to finance its budget deficits. During that time, the Fed acquired $1.9 trillion worth of government bonds. [...]
The Fed also bought $1.7 trillion worth of agency debt or, in other words, the mortgage-related debt issued and guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie. That pushed up the price of those bonds and drove down their yields.
Higher property prices helped reflate the economy by pushing up household sector net worth. If the Fed had not bought $1.7 trillion worth of mortgage-related debt, the yield on that debt would have remained high (or moved higher), the owners of that debt would have been stuck with impaired assets, and the property market would have weakened further instead of rebounding.
Between the rebound in property prices and the sharp rise in stock prices, household sector net worth increased by $25 trillion (or by 45%) from the low it reached in 2009. It is now 17% above its pre-crisis peak.
This increase in wealth was the result of QE. What else could possibly explain it? That surge in net worth clearly created a wealth effect that allowed much more consumption, and therefore economic growth, than would have been possible otherwise.
It was not a coincidence that net worth rose by $25 trillion at the same time that the central bank was creating unprecedented amounts of fiat money and using it to acquire financial assets. It is certain that QE reflated the US economy by pushing up asset prices.”

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media...FED-assets.pngAssets held by the Federal Reserve System after 3 major QE operations … via Saint Louis Federal Reserve Research – click to enlarge.

Life After QE?
Next month, QE comes to an end. What next?
Richard continues:

“When QE ends in October [...] the odds are quite high that the economy will begin to deflate again.
Should that occur, the Fed would then have to decide whether to do nothing and allow everything it has accomplished to unravel in a process most probably leading back to severe recession and deflation or else to launch yet another round of QE.
I believe it will be an easy decision for the Fed to make. After all, what’s a few trillion dollars more (shared) among friends?”

Between the end of this QE and the beginning of the next QE-plus, there are likely to be some accidents. In the bond market, spreads between junk bonds and Treasurys have hit a high for the year – a classic signal of increased risk aversion among investors. (Essentially, junk-bond investors are demanding more compensation – in terms of yield – for the risk of higher default.)
And as Chris has been reporting, large-cap stocks continue to do well while small caps struggle. Stock market investors are becoming uneasy. They’re moving away from risk and toward quality. Our guess is that there will be a couple of pileups – most likely in the stock market. Then the Fed will put on its fluorescent orange vest and begin directing traffic again.

The Trouble with Wealth
Meanwhile, we have been writing a series titled “Homage to Poverty.” Our mission was not to encourage readers to give away their worldly goods and wander the globe, depending on the kindness and alms of strangers. We are just trying to put wealth in perspective. We wanted readers to know what they were getting into.
We’ve already addressed two of the three most important questions in life:What do you do? And where do you do it? Does having money help you do what you want? Sometimes. Other times, it just gets in the way. Does it help you live where you want?
Maybe, but it has a way of luring you to places that you may not want to live at all – such as big, empty, monumental houses in sterile, dead communities where your neighbors – like you – are rarely home.
That is the trouble with rich neighborhoods. The people who own the houses are not there. You look out your window at night and you see streets and houses that are empty. You lose the coziness that you really wanted from a real home and a real community; once you have given it up, it’s hard to get back.
Before we take up the third question, let us pause a minute and wonder why we thought we wanted wealth in the first place.

“On the Job”
In our case, the question never arose. It was as if some programming set us to work at an early age. From then on, we were “on the job.” We got to work at 8 a.m. We kept at it until 8 p.m.
There was no magic to it. No genius was required. After 30 years of this, things started to fall into place. We never became super wealthy by today’s standards. But compared to where we began, we feel plenty rich enough.
We grew up in what would barely qualify as a “shack.” So we’ve always been a little nutty about houses. During our entire career we were either building one… renovating one… or planning another one. Now we have more than enough.
Like everything else in life, wealth responds to the law of declining marginal utility. A little is a good thing; a lot is less useful and may even reduce your quality of life.
A little house can be charming and delightful; when you have several large houses, on the other hand, you can become tired of painting shutters and fixing toilets. But why would we be programmed to seek wealth, if it really doesn’t do much for us?
Ah, dear reader, we’re so glad you asked that very good question. Because we have a very good answer…
We are programmed by millions of years of natural selection to chase material success. This may be simply because life was such a close run for so many years; we needed to take advantage of every opportunity to increase our wealth (probably in the form of calories) or our entire species might die out.

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media...ral_Museum.jpgA shack in Japan …

(Photo via Wikimedia Commons)

The Selfish Gene
We also use wealth (and power; the two are closely related) as a way of advertising and proving that we are worthy mates. Men drive big cars … and buy big houses … simply to signal that they are successful. This makes them attractive to women …
The woman believes that the man has the kind of genetic material she wants in her children. The man believes he has won an admirer, thanks to his sparkling wit and warm personality, who also will bear him children. The two get together and the world spins around.
It is not that simple. Nothing in human affairs ever is. But as near as we can tell, we humans are programmed by nature to seek wealth, far beyond what we really need to survive.
Perhaps it is a survival strategy: By trying to get as much wealth (calories) as possible, we end up with just enough. Perhaps it is a mating strategy: Wealth illustrates suitability. Or perhaps wealth is a way of gaining love and respect. It’s as though our achievements, in themselves, make us more worthy.

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media...lfish_gene.gif

These considerations are not considerations at all; people are largely unaware of them. Rarely does a person consciously seek riches so his mother will approve of him. Rarely does a man make his investment decisions expressly so that he will be able to dump the “ol’ girl” and get a trophy wife.
And it is the uncommon woman who finds a senator more attractive than a carpenter simply because she wants children who are more likely to get into Harvard. But the selfish genes have their own goals in life… and their own strategies. They give meaning to things that mean nothing to us otherwise. Without them, the value of money disappears.
Without love, wealth loses its sex appeal. And without sex, all the busing, schlepping, and sweating that we do to get wealth is pointless. The rat race stops … along with the race itself.

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media...ve-success.jpg

The above article is from Diary of a Rogue Economist originally written for Bonner & Partners. Bill Bonner founded Agora, Inc in 1978. It has since grown into one of the largest independent newsletter publishing companies in the world. He has also written three New York Times bestselling books, Financial Reckoning Day, Empire of Debt and Mobs, Messiahs and Markets.

eur/usd

analyzing weekly downtrend

1996/12/22 -1997/02/09
last time 7 straight week that eu went down
1.2617-1.1551 (1996) 1068pips
2014/08/17-2014//9/28
1.3399-1.2499 900pips

is this the start of the eurusd freefall to under par......I don't think so....
I think bounce is somewhere between the two red ractangles

gold view for the week.......

maximum price down to 1172 before bounce
if no bounce then we definitely go to 103x target

pay attention to those high low red rectangles and circle to the left of those red rectangles
-last two times it peaked and dropped to about 161.8 of peak......
will it do it again?

audusd view

within 100-150pips more drop before bounce to about 0.93....lets see..

Good work here G and well done for your wins last week

thanks Lalu....

problem I don't have a sure trade....everything is in hmmmm should support or break mode....I hate trading those areas

audcad view 0.9763

looking at 2012/02/26 weekly tl that has closed under for last 3 weeks....is this sign that cad is getting stronger than aud?
weekly

monthly

gold opened at 1191 and now at 1184...low came 0.5 pips from last low of 1182.32
are we going to fully close below 1282?

hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

the power of daily candle and price action on gold

---open your charts and look at daily
-look back 10 days to Friday's action
-I took short at 1215 on sept 29 close est....
look at those candles and what do you see?
why I kept the trade open? you can see why?
apart from trying to break 1204 for two other times....
hope everybody understands what I'm saying....

levels im watching for gold

http://www.forexminute.com/commoditi...m-levels-46291

Gold and Silver Approaching Key Long-term Levels
By Forexminute - Fan Yang | Commodities News, Technical Analysis Reports | Oct 6, 2014 1:52AM BST

inShare
Gold and silver priced in USD both fell after Friday’s highly anticipated US jobs report. The US NFP data reported 248K jobs added in September, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.9%, the lowest in 6 year. This boosted the USD and naturally pulled down anything priced in the USD.
Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart 10/6
(click to enlarge)
As we begin a new week, we see price dipping further below an already sharply bearish daily candle. The 1180.20 level is the 2013-2014 low. As the daily RSI pushes into oversold territory, we should expect at least some near-term consolidation. However, the upside should be limited to 1220. A break above 1240 could be a sign of bullish correction.
Otherwise, the bearish outlook remains, and has room to run, IF gold price breaks below 1180.
Gold XAU/USD Weekly Chart
(click to enlarge)
We can see from the weekly chart that the market has been consolidating since mid-2013, and the prevailing trend was bearish, from the 2011, and historic high of 1920.74. A break below 1180 therefore continues a downtrend, and gold will have the 2010-low of 1043.90 in sight.
Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart 10/6
(click to enlarge)
The pace of decline in silver price has been faster than that of gold. We can say that silver has been leading the two precious metals in its bearish mode. Price fell further on Friday as gold did, but silver has already broken into fresh lows on the year with no signs of stopping. At this point, if we get a pullback, we should see sellers around 18.00. Above that, silver might be in a meaningful consolidation or bullish correction.
Silver (XAG/USD) Weekly Chart
(click to enlarge)
Now to the downside, since it has broken into fresh lows on the year, the next support factor would be the 2010-low at 14.63 as seen in the weekly chart. We can also expect this bearish continuation scenario because price has been bearish since 2011, and broke the 2013 and 2014 consolidation.

upsdate