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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #7,061
  • Sep 28, 2014 8:17am Sep 28, 2014 8:17am
Quoting Almondeyed
{quote} We are close to the final leg. Bearish divergence in hourly chart already in action. We need one more push to very high probablity to 1.1170 level (may be fell short at 1.1149) and then correction will start {image}

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It looks we reached Wave [iii] (or one more very minor higher high needed). Current high was the 261.8% extension of Wave [i] and Wave [c] is 100% extension of Wave [a]. Everything looks perfect to look for a correction now. But not deep one. Wave [ii] was very deep (91%) & Wave [b] of Wave [iii] is 76.2%. So Wave [iv] can be 14.4% or 23.8%. 1.1081 support level is nice for last bounce up to ~1.1300 and from here we should have much deeper correction.
  • #7,062
  • Sep 28, 2014 10:11am Sep 28, 2014 10:11am
Quoting Almondeyed
{quote} {image} It looks we reached Wave [iii] (or one more very minor higher high needed). Current high was the 261.8% extension of Wave [i] and Wave [c] is 100% extension of Wave [a]. Everything looks perfect to look for a correction now. But not deep one. Wave [ii] was very deep (91%) & Wave [b] of Wave [iii] is 76.2%. So Wave [iv] can be 14.4% or 23.8%. 1.1081 support level is nice for last bounce up to ~1.1300 and from here we should have much deeper correction.
Too many traders are long atm. I will start looking for a deeper correction from 38.2/41.4% of wave [V]. Wave a and b of [V] may give us some ideas. Good work. Thanks.
  • #7,063
  • Sep 28, 2014 10:28am Sep 28, 2014 10:28am
Quoting 4xpol
{quote} Too many traders are long atm. I will start looking for a deeper correction from 38.2/41.4% of wave [V]. Wave a and b of [V] may give us some ideas. Good work. Thanks.
Thanks Need to see clear bearish reversal indications dare to short USD against a currency recently.. Will see :nerd:

BTW Weekly outlook... It is clear that current rally from 1.0615 lacking momentum strength....
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  • #7,064
  • Edited 7:15am Sep 30, 2014 6:48am | Edited 7:15am
Looking for 1.1310 for CAD, but will watch 1.1224-51 for a shortfall target.GL
RE:EU Break above 1.2715 will confirm the low, if not back to shorts.
  • #7,065
  • Sep 30, 2014 1:12pm Sep 30, 2014 1:12pm
Quoting Almondeyed
{quote} {image} It looks we reached Wave [iii] (or one more very minor higher high needed). Current high was the 261.8% extension of Wave [i] and Wave [c] is 100% extension of Wave [a]. Everything looks perfect to look for a correction now. But not deep one. Wave [ii] was very deep (91%) & Wave [b] of Wave [iii] is 76.2%. So Wave [iv] can be 14.4% or 23.8%. 1.1081 support level is nice for last bounce up to ~1.1300 and from here we should have much deeper correction.
I little adjusted current count because Wave [c] of Wave [iii] is misjudged by me and it is longer than expected. My best candidate for Wave [iii] top is ~1.1300 which is 58.6% wave v extension, 150% wave [a] extension and 316.8% Wave [i] extension.
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  • #7,066
  • Oct 1, 2014 10:00am Oct 1, 2014 10:00am
Quoting Almondeyed
{quote} I little adjusted current count because Wave [c] of Wave [iii] is misjudged by me and it is longer than expected. My best candidate for Wave [iii] top is ~1.1300 which is 58.6% wave v extension, 150% wave [a] extension and 316.8% Wave [i] extension. {image}
Good work as usual. If 1.1223 was A and 1.1162 was B then 1.1290-1.1310 possible.
  • #7,067
  • Oct 1, 2014 12:06pm Oct 1, 2014 12:06pm
We are at do or die. Red label for traditional EW count and black for HEW users. I did put may bet on "do" risking 20 pips below 1.2570.
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  • #7,068
  • Oct 2, 2014 12:27pm Oct 2, 2014 12:27pm
Quoting 4xpol
{quote} Good work as usual. If 1.1223 was A and 1.1162 was B then 1.1290-1.1310 possible.
Markets always have some bad surprise

Anyway big picture did not change considerably
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  • #7,069
  • Oct 2, 2014 4:26pm Oct 2, 2014 4:26pm
Quoting Almondeyed
{quote} Markets always have some bad surprise Anyway big picture did not change considerably {image}
Not always goes the way U want.
Do U trade WTI? I need to compare EW count.
  • #7,070
  • Oct 2, 2014 10:36pm Oct 2, 2014 10:36pm
Quoting 4xpol
{quote} Not always goes the way U want. Do U trade WTI? I need to compare EW count.
With pleasure

This is one of the trickiest

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  • #7,071
  • Oct 3, 2014 1:49am Oct 3, 2014 1:49am
Quoting Almondeyed
{quote} Markets always have some bad surprise Anyway big picture did not change considerably {image}
Other view to USD/CAD waves. I don't see impuls wave structure from 1,0886 and think we are in correction mode. Now I'm waiting five waves down as wave C. Target about 1,0840 .
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  • #7,072
  • Oct 3, 2014 2:03am Oct 3, 2014 2:03am
Quoting SLforex
{quote} Other view to USD/CAD waves. I don't see impuls wave structure from 1,0886 and think we are in correction mode. Now I'm waiting five waves down as wave C. Target about 1,0840 . {image}
I added one alternative to count in your chart. And there are some hundreds other ways too. It can be extreme bearish or extreme bullish. How can base a trade decision with such input?
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  • #7,073
  • Oct 3, 2014 2:19am Oct 3, 2014 2:19am
What happens on Eur-Usd? We will have to end of this extension a terminal impulse with wave-5 extended?
  • #7,074
  • Oct 3, 2014 2:21am Oct 3, 2014 2:21am
Quoting Almondeyed
{quote} I added one alternative to count in your chart. And there are some hundreds other ways too. It can be extreme bearish or extreme bullish. How can base a trade decision with such input? {image}

In your chart wave (4) have five wave structure.
  • #7,075
  • Oct 3, 2014 2:30am Oct 3, 2014 2:30am
this count do not abuse any of three rule of Mr. Elliott. So it is simple ABC correction for Wane (4)
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  • #7,076
  • Oct 3, 2014 7:56am Oct 3, 2014 7:56am
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Going back to original count on EU. More in line with other USD crosses.
  • #7,077
  • Oct 3, 2014 10:42am Oct 3, 2014 10:42am
Thanks for WTI. This (iii) was a monster.
  • #7,078
  • Oct 4, 2014 3:52am Oct 4, 2014 3:52am
Hi,

USD/JPY

I think last fridays move is a almost finished wave 1 (see attached 15min chart) so if this is correct we will see new highs soon.

On the attached 60min chart there is an alternative count in magenta but then wave 5 would be very short and last fridays move is in my book an impuls and not a B wave. So the "white count" with the irregular B in wave 4 is the one I prefer currently.

What do you think ?
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  • #7,079
  • Oct 4, 2014 4:55am Oct 4, 2014 4:55am
I think the life it s much easy only with 8 waves. To predict extensions in Impulse it s like to predict the next numbers on lottery.
  • #7,080
  • Oct 4, 2014 5:42am Oct 4, 2014 5:42am
I think we should allow higher high (probably around 110.156 Murrey Math level). However we need first to finish Wave (iv) correction. While Wave (ii) is very shallow and Wave (b) of Wave (iii) is standard, Wave (iv) should be some deep. No need to try to predict where will be the top, safer to jump on trend after Wave (iv) pull back somewhere around lower part of the 109 where we see bullish turning indications.

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