GBP/JPY

Broke below the little channel, then back up in it to the top and perhaps bouncing down from the top of the channel from here. Needs to hold below 175.50 or else up she goes.

We came back in a crappy range. The last two range we had was a distribution.

As we are on a strong support level (50%) ,it could be a distribution in order to go below.

The problem I have is if we go that way is the weekly break out we had was only to protect GBP against Scotland vote and does not mean anything on chart.

even if it does break up beyond 175.50, seeing lots of bearishness on higher timeframes.

though moves up on short term might be profitable, I'll be on the look out for short positions after those moves instead

My belief is we will have a retest at 176.20 before price does any big movements. That's my half cent for GJ on coming week.

Happy Trades

I wish someone would make up my mind for me.

I think overall, I agree with everyone on the indecisiveness of the price right now... But bearish flag/channel on the H1 chart still hasn't been broken on the downside, plus price has shown the propensity to bounce off of it. But if it doesn't eventually make it's way up, and the buyers become exhausted, then break out down. So, I think, it's hovering at a key level right now, but wondering if we'll see it decide which way to go today, or if it will just sputter around and do nothing...

more Stuff

All that said, now it looks like bull time. Funny.

Yep, wish someone would teach me to stay out until the price direction is decisive

Short version is:

I see it ramping up for upward move, but not sure if there are enough players left in the game for anything to happen today...

But that bottom H1 flag/channel seems to still be respected, which hints for further upward movement.

Plus it's consolidating with an ascending triangle formation right at the top of resistance, which also points to a break out...

M15 chart:

No demand on daily chart today, that leads me to think we will go lower and go back in daily range around 170.

Decision made. The bulls win today. Perhaps back to 177 next week?

well I'm out completely now, snagged a few pips from NFP.

with the recent crazy weekend gaps and general wonkiness, I don't feel comfortable holding over the weekend.

not as much movement down to end the week as I would have liked, but still bearish overall.

thoughts on market open next week:

- if it opens with a gap down below 175, I'll start looking for sell entries after the gap closes.

- if it gaps up, I'll be looking for it to hit resistance, then start looking for bearish price action.

- no real big gap either way, eeeeh, I'll look for sell entries, but price action will have to be decisive at S/R levels.

Looking at my chart now, I'm wondering if I should have held a long position. But no worries, I think next week looks a lot simpler to trade, judging from the perfectly formed bull flag on the H4 or H1 chart...

Buy at the bottom trend line and sell at the top. if either trend is broken, then go the other way, and I'd assume the top will eventually be broken, and would expect the bottom to hold.

What do you think?

So remember how I said you don't want to see my analysis charts? Well, don't say I didn't warn you.

Hopefully I can explain it well enough. Here goes.

1) I drew your channel on my chart, switched to D1, and zoomed out a bit. I wanted to get a feel of where this channel might react. Of course, we're sitting on pretty major support, which was once major resistance, right around the 175 area. Considering the ginormous uptrend we've been in for years now, it very well could bounce up here and continue on it's merry way. I would like to see it dig down a bit deeper.

2) You'll see a few 2s on the chart. The one in the range is where I've drawn purple horizontal lines, where I consider S/R to be significant. There are a few 2s at lows and highs. These are where I've drawn my fib retracements. I don't trade off them, but I use them for confluence. Notice how current price has reacted.

3) Holy crap look at that bearish pin bar. To me, that is significant, even zoomed way out on D1 charts. I have a note concerning that bar at the end.

4) I mentioned in this post that I sometimes look at crazy time frames. The 3 week bar closed today up off it's open. The bar has been overlaid on the chart in blue. I would have loved for it to close below, but it did close below the range(barely), and this is still significantly bearish to me. Backed up by that daily pin and the level it's sitting on, might be a major reversal signal. Notes on this at the end as well.

5) Major volume has come in to push this bar back up and back down. Regardless of whether you discount the news of Scotland's independence vote or not, that's a hell of a lot of volume coming in. Considering this with point 4, this has me bearish.

6) I put up a 200 SMA just for fun. I don't use MAs at all, but 200 is one trend traders use, yeah? I was actually surprised to see that's it's flowing into my next point.

7) My areas of interest. Confluence. I looooove confluence. The three boxes here areas where I would look for trades.

The top box is minor interest; there's a fib, horizontal S/R, and the top line of your channel.

The middle box intrigues me the most. I would love to see price react in this area. Fib levels, horizontal S/R, trend line coming up from the range before, top line of your channel, and that silly 200 SMA that I never use. That's is a lot of confluence! If price were to react bullishly at this point, I would not be surprised. If it plummeted through, for me that would be a major signal of long term bearish sentiment.

Bottom box. Still a bit unsure how to look at this one. Horizontal S/R and a few pretty major fib levevls. First thing that comes to mind is that if price blows through the middle box, it will likely find support here and range between the two levels.

WHEW. Okay, hopefully that makes sense. Please let me know if you'd like me to expand on anything. I find having to explain my sentiments helps me figure out if I really am committed to it or not. As always, I'd love to hear your all's opinions on it as well!

* Okay, here's the note about those pin bars. As I said, the shape of them is significant to me, even on way zoomed out charts. And check the price level the high is on. I've indicated the high as a magenta horizontal line in the second pic. Check out that S/R! from 1997 to 2002, price has reacted in a serious way to that price zone.

At any rate, I'm still getting used to this whole sharing my opinion with others here. I prefer to lurk.

But, I certainly know that I have no clue where this pair will go for sure. GBP/JPY is a wild ride, and will throw you off as soon as you're comfortable.

I think that's why I like it!

And now it's Friday after 5.

Time for a nice IPA, pajama pants, and fuzzy robe. Shutting down charts and playing games all night.

Agreed. its a retrace though . 170 coming up.

XNAdam - Great analysis. I'm curious what time frame do you enter/exit trades on with this beast?

I agree too, 170 is a real possibility. And definitely agree with a short trade bias this week, unless we have a daily close above the last daily close/high. But I think it will need to break through/down the 172-174 level and show that it wants to stay below that. I see a lot of "support" around there, i.e. daily/weekly chart demand.

Unless you are real confident with this, and can show me it's a sure thing? Then I'll just go short, close down my computer, and wait for my 500 pips

Here's another perspective... Doesn't give any specifics in terms of where this pair will go over the next week or 2 in terms of exact price. But watch the channel it's in right now, for 3 bounces on each trend line (upper/lower).

I would expect a clean bounce off the top trend line this week (2nd bounce). Then down to bottom for the 3rd bounce.

I would watch for a break out on the 3rd bounce, either on the bottom, or top if it makes it back up. Of course, it might get a little messy on bounce number 3, whether on lower/upper trend. And if it hits or comes near either trend line for a 4th time, I'd be really surprised if it didn't break through or provide some sort of reversal pattern that is pretty decisive...

I might add that it could just fall down to the bottom of the channel for that 3rd bounce right away, which would lead me to believe it might just fall through...