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Recent theoretical work and actual trades

  • #121
  • Sep 19, 2014 3:22am Sep 19, 2014 3:22am
Closed the bad short.
OK
+1.5% this week. Thats not so great. Ive had a lot of other things to do this week. But its not over yet.
This week + last week = +5%. Thats on average +0.5%/day. Thats my former target. So ive got that looking back two weeks.

Next target is + 0.8%/day of total account, no drawdown greater then 2%.

If i attain that, i will raise lot size, and with that kind of PROVEN drawdown, 33% bigger lot size would mean 3% drawdown and have the account grow more then 1% a day.
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  • #122
  • Sep 19, 2014 3:30am Sep 19, 2014 3:30am
There should be about one good opurtunity for 2-4 positions. Think i will place a second after the first if shorts seem to build up. Third and fourth position is to back up the first if there is more selling somewhere.

It feels SO nice not to have any positions open.
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  • #123
  • Sep 21, 2014 8:06am Sep 21, 2014 8:06am
Quoting yaed
Closed the bad short. OK +1.5% this week. Thats not so great. Ive had a lot of other things to do this week. But its not over yet. This week + last week = +5%. Thats on average +0.5%/day. Thats my former target. So ive got that looking back two weeks. Next target is + 0.8%/day of total account, no drawdown greater then 2%. If i attain that, i will raise lot size, and with that kind of PROVEN drawdown, 33% bigger lot size would mean 3% drawdown and have the account grow more then 1% a day.

Hi yaed!
Keep up the good work!
Best wishes from Switzerland!
FXcube
  • #124
  • Oct 2, 2014 12:32am Oct 2, 2014 12:32am
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} Hi yaed! Keep up the good work! Best wishes from Switzerland! FXcube
Your encouragement means a lot to me. Happy trading my friend.
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  • #125
  • Oct 2, 2014 1:10am Oct 2, 2014 1:10am
After a meaningfull, although sort of stressfull vacation up north its time to reduce drawdown dramatically. In short i will trade safer. This will mean somewhat less amount of trades, and a smaller return. But this is true as long as i use current lot size. As time goes along i see dradown is kept lets say in the range of 0.5-4% of total account, i will raise lot size slowly, so raising return just as much. I would prefer and also think according to recent closed trades as well as recent lessons learned, that 2 positions should be enough 90-97% of trading opurtunities.
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  • #126
  • Edited 4:05am Oct 2, 2014 1:21am | Edited 4:05am
Long term goal the year 2015.
One position. SL 5-20, TP 5-20.


Medium term goal 20th October until end of 2014.
Two positions. Drawdown <4%. TP 5-20.


Short term goal 2nd until 17th of October
Three positions. Drawdown <6%. TP 4-18.

Something like that, i dunno. Dont matter. Maybe. Dont know. Maybe.
So uuh... if i attain long term goal, SL/TP can be about 1% of total account, at least to begin with. And then lets say incremental up to 2%. That would REALLY put my account into a exponential curve.

Though i guess i will have to do without the euro in a bit. Also the dollar seem not so good in say... 2018.
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  • #127
  • Edited 3:37am Oct 2, 2014 3:13am | Edited 3:37am
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Or more precise maybe if i put different colors on the lines. Think i will go back somewhat to get another chart so as not to bore anybody (most probably myself).

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  • #128
  • Edited Oct 3, 2014 2:50am Oct 2, 2014 3:53am | Edited Oct 3, 2014 2:50am
+0.43% on the day. Drawdown less then so, maybe -0.2% or -0.3% something like that, didnt really note it down
Im getting hungry. Time for a break i guess.
I have a limit or two out there just in case we should get there.
Patience. Analysis. Pattern recognition. Thats it. Takes time. Takes effort. Takes not listening to stuff that cant be proven. Takes having a look at the stuff that CAN be proven: math, science. Thats about it.

15:45 +1.5% on the day. 27 positions, one loss for ooh about -0.03%. Drawdown 1.2% or some such maximum. Used slightly more then 2 positions, but i used full positions, half positions, small positions and tiny positons all depending on... everything.

I think i used 3 fibonacci systems at once, about 2 S/R systems, 2 trend systems, 3 PA systems, 4 TFs and 4 MM systems. But there really is just one "system" and its that really simple program they call E/U. I mean it so simple it could be run on a NES 8-Bit, SEGA megadrive, Commodore 64, Amiga 500 or one of those old Ataris, what you call them Atari ST or some such. Or why not a 80086 PC? With one of those highly dangerous screens that give you face cancer.

EDIT: Actually i placed 4 trades in the evening and one of those was around 20 pip win. That put me +2% yesterday. A very good day indeed.
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  • #129
  • Oct 2, 2014 4:50pm Oct 2, 2014 4:50pm
Hi yead!
What's your profit target per anno? & and if so, ...did it have an impact of your risk- & money desicion(s)?
Maybe you've written this topic anywhere before. If so I bet your pardon.
(I manage discrete accounts with varied profit targets (10%-150% per anno).
Best wishes from Switzerland!
FXcube
  • #130
  • Oct 3, 2014 2:49am Oct 3, 2014 2:49am
Quoting Forexcube
Hi yead! What's your profit target per anno? & and if so, ...did it have an impact of your risk- & money desicion(s)? Maybe you've written this topic anywhere before. If so I bet your pardon. (I manage discrete accounts with varied profit targets (10%-150% per anno). Best wishes from Switzerland! FXcube
Well lets see now...
I cant and wont trade every bank day, so lets say 15 days/month, 12 months per year thats 180 days/year.

My target now is 0.8%/day and thats within reach considering how i have been doing, and if i do that for 180 days...

Using this exponential growth calculator

http://www.miniwebtool.com/exponenti...008&n3=180&n4=

And it seems true according to my estimation...

That equals sligthly more then +300%/year at a growth of 0.8%/day from the starting x amount on the account.

So lets say my annual growth target is +300%.

That equals 87 days of work to double the account.

But i am trading only one account and only one pair (E/U).
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  • #131
  • Oct 3, 2014 6:46am Oct 3, 2014 6:46am
Quoting yaed
{quote} Well lets see now... I cant and wont trade every bank day, so lets say 15 days/month, 12 months per year thats 180 days/year. My target now is 0.8%/day and thats within reach considering how i have been doing, and if i do that for 180 days... Using this exponential growth calculator http://www.miniwebtool.com/exponenti...008&n3=180&n4= And it seems true according to my estimation... That equals sligthly more then +300%/year at a growth of 0.8%/day from the starting x amount on the account. So lets...
I wish you green & happy pips.
FXcube
  • #132
  • Oct 5, 2014 8:30am Oct 5, 2014 8:30am
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} I wish you green & happy pips. FXcube
Thanks cube. You are one of the people i consider my teachers in trading forex. Some day i hope to repay this in some way
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  • #133
  • Oct 5, 2014 8:34am Oct 5, 2014 8:34am
It thought i should post these here as well if my hard drive would crash or something like that.

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I mean sure crysis or what ever, a mthematical defenition is a lot better then... talking, when talking about something that too is in its nature quantified already.

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So uuuh... i guess im selling next week huh? Just like the week before and the week before and the week before and...
+4.1% on the total account is my target for next week. If i do as good as thursday just 2 days and my target the other days that would net me around 6.5% or some such. If i get there i will throw a party i think. Or two.
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  • #134
  • Oct 5, 2014 2:15pm Oct 5, 2014 2:15pm
General: ATR becomes smoother the higher the TF.
So a lets say 70 pip candle on M5 does not have an equivalent on H4 ATR wise.
In practice and to clarify: A 70 pip candle on H4 is a big candle. A 70 pip candle on M5 is ULTRA HUGE. But still, you would NEVER get a 700 pip candle on H4 without fire and brimstone following it.

This is what people fail to quantify and call the noise, chaos, untcontrollable aspect of the shorter timeframes.
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  • #135
  • Edited 3:06pm Oct 6, 2014 5:40am | Edited 3:06pm
Friday wasnt much at all concerning anything at all, +0.1% or something.

+0.2% on the day today.

12:47 +0.3%

14:33 +0.65%

Could well land on +1% or so.

14:38 +0.75%

15:02 +0.9%

For a monday this one is shaping up pretty nicely.

11 positions closed so far.

18:20 +1.5%

20 positions closed so far. Profits.

22:06 -12.2%
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  • #136
  • Oct 6, 2014 3:15pm Oct 6, 2014 3:15pm
TODO

ATR + envelope measurement on M1 to signify inactive status on high TF channel inactive mode.
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  • #137
  • Oct 7, 2014 7:37pm Oct 7, 2014 7:37pm
yeayeasyeasdasdasdasd
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  • #138
  • Oct 7, 2014 7:37pm Oct 7, 2014 7:37pm
Some math
How about that?
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  • #139
  • Oct 7, 2014 7:39pm Oct 7, 2014 7:39pm
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  • #140
  • Oct 7, 2014 7:41pm Oct 7, 2014 7:41pm
I am listening to Antony and the Johnsons.

He is such a beautiful person. All the time.
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