Recent theoretical work and actual trades

Recent theoretical work


Hi

First some of that:

Just some pattern recognition. I did that on old 2011 data, just scrolling one candle at a time to the right. This i did because i wasnt up and running online with the account and the only data i had was from spring and early summer 2011.

And more:

As can be seen on these M1 pattern recognition examples, most of the profits would be eaten by a spread of say 1.2 to 2.0. Meaning of course that this sort of volatility, trading idea and market dynamics dont mix well with a regular account.

M15:

More M15:

3rd M15 picture:

Those are done scrolled rightways on 2011 data.

And then i guess the M1 .tpl that ive been using should go up. Think it needs the "MA ribbon filled" indie.

I know its all in a jumble and so on but anyway now its up, i will arrange better soon.

How long term (W1) volatility translates in to short term volatility (M1)




As seen here, right now we are in an almost unprecedented low in activity on E/U. This is a W1 chart with a 30 period ATR. And as you can see on the ATR the only times we had that low activity is back in 1994 and in 2007.

And this translates to M1 like this:



The thin green line is my old m21 envelope buddy signaling something like "Yeah some things are going on" once price actually hits it. Back in 2011 that used to happen maybe 5-20 times a day on a normal day. Today it have not even happend once. And i have been going back seeing the same thing. Like yesterday:



Which leads me to think something like"Lets put M1 on the shelf for a while". So im stepping up to M15, which holds somewhat of the M1 dynamics.

Logic and probability on M15


Which means im doing something like:



And the tpl. for that is:



So let me see if i can get my head around the idea i came up with myself. Ok the Mas are long and short term trend. Remember MAs dont show the future, only the past. Meaning they arent really that much use. If green MAs are on top, we got a buying market. If green MAs are below, we got a selling market. According to the logic of the MAs that is. And remember they dont tell the future, ever.

Only pattern recognition can even come close to telling the future. And why is that? Because the subconsious contains lets say x10 (an almost infinite amount more if you as C.G. Jung) amount of information compared to the consiousness. So why does that matter? Well if subconsious information can be used, the probability of the patterns are better. And how do you know if you are actually getting the pattern information from the subconsious? Well its about feeling. Not "feelings", but "feeling". Ok so what does that mean? Well if you have a hunch, and you have experience enough, that hunch is your best tool to trade becuase it contains information from the subconsious about the patterns you see in price.

And then there is the ADX. The ADX is a tool of probability, and its a little bit of help, maybe for the pattern recognition. If the red is on top, thats a sell according to the logic of this ADX setting. And if the blue is on top thats a buy. Not very difficult. But thats not nearly the truth of this tool. For you see, in a selling market, a buy is less probable. And in a buying market a sell is less probable. Thats why the ADX should be used on reversed logic. Meaning if the market is buying you only buy when the ADX is giving a sell, and in a selling market you only sell when the ADX is giving a buy. The 37 line is wrongly calibrated. Its calibrated on M1 data from 2011. But its a good starting point for further analysis. I interpret the 37 area on the ADX as a strong signal. A 37 or so buy is strong, a 37 sell is strong.

And remember: This math is made on closed candles. So no need to hurry or to worry. And also: May the force be with you

So to get all this straight, and lets see if im not fooling myself with this slightly contrived logic here is a practical example. Of how to do this.

My history


When i started trading money in early 2010 i did good the first days. But the broker and the instrument where corrupt. They took my money for no reason. I dont use that broker and that instrument any more. And i have learned to trust my friends, and not to trust the ones who are not my friends, for they have stabbed me in my back and proven they can not be trusted. I have paid dearly in currency much more important then money. Now no one can stop OUR plans. For i am not alone. We are legion. We are @N0Ny|v|0u$

In 2010-2011 i traded E/U almost exclusively. And i think i forgot or did not understand what made me succesfull in the beginning: feeling. In the beginning i did not even have the pattern recognition, yet the feeling was enough. Now ive got: math + pattern recognition + feeling. Although the "feeling" is akin to "pattern recognition", they are both mostly subconsious processis.

During summer 2011 up until summer 2014 (now) i have been doing stage art like: theater, music, dancing, performance. I have been writing: poetry, litterature, social science, metaphysics. I have been researching and using: directing, gathering, dream magic, symbolic magic, ritual magic and CHANNELING. I have got back to martial arts training with axe, sword, shield, unarmed combat, stick, staff, club, knife. I have done some reading: journalism, litterature (novells), fantasy, science, philosophy, history, sci-fi, horror, legends. And of course meeting some new people of various sorts: some of them stupid, some of them intelligent, some of them wise, some of them cunning, some of them armed, some like sheep, some like wolves, some wampires, some warevolves, some religious, some materialists, some artists, some directors, some actors, some producers, some animists, some dead, some never alive, some immaterial, some undead, some green and white ones, some black ones like the crows, some snake women, some beavers, some magpies, some dogs, some otters and so on.

I have been close to death twice. I have become a father. I have met the love of my life. I have sworn to protect some people with my life. I have made enormous plans for the future. I have talked with some spirits. I have fought and defeated a spirit. I have had a psychosis. I remembered things i have forgotten. I have destroyed my own health willingly. I have become physically stronger and faster then i have ever been.

I have had my eyes opened even more, so compared to 2011 they almost seemed shut.

Pattern recognition


So the logic for this M15 idea is NOT to buy when the market is buying or sell when the market is selling. But instead to establish market direction, and to act (buy or sell) in that direction, but only when a reversed signal is indicated. Meaning to buy in a selling signal and to sell in a buying signal. But still not to go against the market. It may appear contrived or unfamiliar, but the signal is what is wrong and show you the right thing. The market is what is right and show you what to do really. Meaning the signal is ment to be wrong, the market is not. The MAs are the market, the ADX is the signal. And then of course pattern recognition. Whats the candle sticks. If price seem to not want to be in an area for 1, 2, 3, 4 candles or so such as:



The sticks dont "like" the yellow area. They seem to retreat from it. That means there are some resistance there. See what i mean? That is pattern recognition. This sort of logic is VERY usefull in ALL instruments and TFs. Its the most basic and perhaps the most efficient way of trading as a stand alone logic. It works so to speak. If you make it work. And it takes a lot of work to make it REALLY work. But it does. Or at least it CAN work.

Money manegement

M1 MM

SL = in the order of say 10-20 pips, calibrated on recent data.

TP = Hard coded TP about 10 pips, but ALL TPs should be monitored. TP of about 15-20 should be no problemo. Also calibrated on recent data.

Trades mainly supported by M15 is more like

SL =25, calibrated on recent data

TP = Hard coded 15 pips, but ALL trades should be monitored. TP of 20 should be no problemo. Also calibrated on recent data.

My starting money manegement is something like 0.1% of total account equals one SL. Then i grow that 0.1% figure slowly over the months to up about 1-2%. That should be enough and give me early indications if i got this all wrong and/or if the market changes in such a way that my idea should change to.

The contrived logic of the inconsequential Tao


Dont stay married to your position. This is a matter of probabilities. Dont add to a very loosing scenario.

People dont want to work for shit. Meaning both they dont want to get paid shit for actual work and they dont really want to work anyway. Mostly they want someone to hand them "the truth" and a very clearly written instruction booklet on how to interpret "the truth".

Most people are lost to themselves. More people become lost as time continues. But this also seems true: As more people become lost, more people find themselves also. More people find themselves as time continues.

Time is an idea comparable to: animism, monotheism, capitalism, syncretism, colonialism, agriculture, physical economy and so forth. Some of these use the idea of time as defined from the european 16th - 17th century and some dont.

M1 edit

Wow dude, i tell yah what i need is a 0 spread account, at most 1 second to fill, tick chart and math on the tick scale. Shesh! That would make me go Meshuggah! 50-300 trades a day. Well anyway. Here is edited M1 .tpl



Wow dude, thats the smallest .tpl i made so far i think. Well anyway, looks like this:



So thats version 0.5 i guess as of June 10th.

Morning 10th of june

So uh, lets see if i can follow my own contrived logic.



When this current sell turns to a slight buy (to the M15 ADX), thats when i sell.

Later 10th of june

And so:



And of course:



Check the last trade. Thats what i call a safe trade. 1.5 pips. A day. Thats enough given the accuracy is THAT good.

Money manegement V.05


Ässäl tjugyfem. Spes taim hundar trettifämm. Int mer än fämm platser. Int mer änn en litn bit uta hela kakan i värsta fall.

Templates eddade. Samma sparning.

Im thinking:



Two days. +. Thats all i want right now. Thats all i need right now. Next week more.

Good days work, weekend and all.

Dont go against the trend. Dont go inside the trend. Sl is entering the trend. Engulfment is trend capturing itself within itself to regain strength.

Today i have looked at -1.5% of my equity if i close. If i had a sensei i would say: Im sorry for my impatience. But i dont have a sensei so i wont be saying that.

I would like to be punished a bit so that i learn better. Maybe i will ask my woman about that.

Risk/loss analysis

What is the practical disadvantage of knowing you could have closed in a better profit then you did, considering the fact that you did before this close to half that profit?

Knowing just how much to take at the moment is the hardest part. It requires almost absolute understanding of the pattern. It requires the combined brainpower of all the stars to really see the whole pattern. But just enough to see when to enter, that still requires a lot of that pattern.

The birds. The movement of water. Smoke. Fire. Ice. Patterns. Repeating. Patterns. Peoples behaviour. What they say. What they do. Its all a matter of patterns. To know those patterns is the ability to break them. The ability to become a chameleon. A ghost. A non person. To let go of all personal patterns.

And now?

Thats about it then isnt it?

While price is screwing around like a stuffed chicken in a room full of wolves, i begin to remember. Enter the soft fog of rememberance as in many TV-shows. The storyteller voice comes on: