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The similarity system

  • #9,781
  • Oct 2, 2014 1:54pm Oct 2, 2014 1:54pm
little bit late with entry. anybody NU?
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As Above, So Below
  • #9,782
  • Oct 2, 2014 2:58pm Oct 2, 2014 2:58pm
Quoting san1111
{quote} Dear wireash, as I'm very new to TZ system, it should be very usefull to see and understand your point of view. Thanks in advance
i explained the basics couple posts ago
basic and simple just try to go with the trend (easier said than done)
  • #9,783
  • Oct 2, 2014 3:51pm Oct 2, 2014 3:51pm
Hello Everyone,

Seems like something's going forward...
did today 78 trades on Eur/Usd and Eur/Jpy
and only 4 of them were in small loss (a few pips)
Tried to apply EurUsdd idea and it seems like finally....
Made almost 900 pips! All trades were on live account
just small positions 0.01 or 0.02 lots.
Would like to thank all the Wise Minds here!
Thanks a Million !
cheers
Mind is the King
  • #9,784
  • Oct 2, 2014 4:07pm Oct 2, 2014 4:07pm
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} That's correct to a certain extent. However, what I'm looking at now is a trend exhaustion/change & at that phase its the speculators that get squeezed. I've been analysing COT reports for long enough to know how both Commercials & Large Specs position themselves before trend changes. Feel free to have a look at the following COT reports & relate them to the current extreme situations of the Euro and USD - Pound in June 2014 - Gold end of August 2014 - Crude Oil mid June 2014 - Euro June 2012 & btw what about small speculators (i.e. retailers)?...

Oh yeah, comparing historical positioning extremes is one thing - I was referencing your comment (which you apparently deleted) about "Maybe we should inform banks and the (always right) commercial traders" . But you'll notice commercial entities are consistently on the "wrong" side of a dominant trend - even in the charts you posted. Non-commercial (or institutional) entities are speculating in the appreciation or depreciation of the instrument being traded. Extremes in positioning are typically precursors to a turn in the market. I've been analyzing COT reports for a long time as well so I understand what you're saying. A commercial entity who's primary business activities involve, say, the price of wheat, isn't accumulating wheat contracts at their highest prices. They're selling them because buying wheat at an extremely high price isn't conducive to their business models.

I know, with currencies, commercial activity is a little less obvious than it is in contracts in other commodities. I took the liberty of providing my EURUSD chart with an overlay of the COT futures and options report outputted as a histogram. The green histogram is net non-commercial positioning, the maroon is net commercial positioning and the yellow line is net small traders - or non-reportables - positioning. As pertains to small traders, they're prone to be on the wrong side of the trend more so than non-commercial entities but they too are speculating in the appreciation and depreciation of the traded instrument.
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  • #9,785
  • Oct 2, 2014 4:08pm Oct 2, 2014 4:08pm
Quoting MikiMax
Hello Everyone, Seems like something's going forward... did today 78 trades on Eur/Usd and Eur/Jpy and only 4 of them were in small loss (a few pips) Tried to apply EurUsdd idea and it seems like finally.... Made almost 900 pips! All trades were on live account just small positions 0.01 or 0.02 lots. Would like to thank all the Wise Minds here! Thanks a Million ! cheers
Holy Cow! 78 trades in a day? Manually or Automated? Care to post some charts? Curious.
  • #9,786
  • Oct 2, 2014 4:12pm Oct 2, 2014 4:12pm
Quoting Albertdkpllh
{quote} Hi the Transient zones are found normally at turning points... At what point do you identify or qualify a zone recurrent. Example, in a down trend u will find Tzs supporting price. May that zone be classified recurring when later price goes below the Tz level.

thank you watsone
  • #9,787
  • Oct 2, 2014 4:14pm Oct 2, 2014 4:14pm
Quoting MikiMax
Hello Everyone, Seems like something's going forward... did today 78 trades on Eur/Usd and Eur/Jpy and only 4 of them were in small loss (a few pips) Tried to apply EurUsdd idea and it seems like finally.... Made almost 900 pips! All trades were on live account just small positions 0.01 or 0.02 lots. Would like to thank all the Wise Minds here! Thanks a Million ! cheers

mikimax what is the time frame you are using can you explain how you done 900 trades
  • #9,788
  • Oct 2, 2014 4:17pm Oct 2, 2014 4:17pm
Quoting FX-Jay
There you go guys, the results for the 3 weeks live testing! Even better results than the back-testing. ( If you want to check the day by day results, you can go through my older posts ) 190 out of 198 profit trades (96%) Largest volume = 1 Max Consecutive losses = 2 Return in less than 3 weeks: 69% (57% including floating P&L) All current open positions will be closed by next Tuesday {image}

is this manual trades or use EA
  • #9,789
  • Oct 2, 2014 4:19pm Oct 2, 2014 4:19pm
Quoting wealthpro
{quote} mikimax what is the time frame you are using can you explain how you done 900 trades
almost 900 pip's 78 trades
  • #9,790
  • Oct 2, 2014 4:26pm Oct 2, 2014 4:26pm
Quoting wealthpro
{quote} mikimax what is the time frame you are using can you explain how you done 900 trades
TF=5 min
78 trades not 900
900 pips of all together positions
Mind is the King
  • #9,791
  • Oct 2, 2014 4:27pm Oct 2, 2014 4:27pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} Holy Cow! 78 trades in a day? Manually or Automated? Care to post some charts? Curious.
of course manually...
Mind is the King
  • #9,792
  • Oct 2, 2014 4:50pm Oct 2, 2014 4:50pm
Quoting MikiMax
{quote} TF=5 min 78 trades not 900 900 pips of all together positions
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  • #9,793
  • Oct 2, 2014 6:16pm Oct 2, 2014 6:16pm
Came in for a 1st post in a very long time and was blinded by Borat! My eyes - now they're really closed!

I read the thread over the last few days and am excited to have my eyes opened - what great work you have all done - wish I hadn't been run off by the FF police so long ago. Anyway, each time I think I have a full understanding of what EURUSDD is saying/implying, I go to charts to build my Queen and it doesn't seem to pan out the way I had envisioned.

First, confusion re: the 97%, 3%. Using the tester written by K, find approx. 3% frequency of a true problem bar using H=28 on M15. The other bars are 97%, but only ~15% become potential TZ's, i.e. have satisfied H on the left side. Secondly, trying to trade against the probability of 3% twice, many of the PTZ bars have negligible range. In fact, many of the PTZ bars with sufficient range to trade, that also extend further beyond the PTZ end up becoming TZ's themselves. All of this can be visualized in any major price move, where often 4 bars in a row can become TZ's. How can 4 bars in a row (3% 4 times) happen relatively frequently? By definition, it can't, so the probabilities above are flawed by some or all of my assumptions.

K I have envisioned as the range of the TZ. I had envisioned keeping that value static, but that exacerbates the problem during a uni-directional move. Once these larger moves become true TZ's, having satisfied the right-side H, you can see the range of the TZ, and getting a 2nd TZ of that size seems to follow the 3% twice rule. But if K is dynamic until pinned by the right-side H - it's like solving an equation with a circular reference.

All that said, I must be missing something major, as many have been able to give price and time targets with 4th decimal place probabilities. The only one able to do all of this with a 10 pt SL and 100% accuracy, however, has been the master himself. If I could just get a handle on calculating probabilities for price and time...

Anyway, hello again to all - hoping I can add to the thread.
  • #9,794
  • Oct 2, 2014 6:20pm Oct 2, 2014 6:20pm
Quoting MikiMax
Hello Everyone, Seems like something's going forward... did today 78 trades on Eur/Usd and Eur/Jpy and only 4 of them were in small loss (a few pips) Tried to apply EurUsdd idea and it seems like finally.... Made almost 900 pips! All trades were on live account just small positions 0.01 or 0.02 lots. Would like to thank all the Wise Minds here! Thanks a Million ! cheers
Hi MikiMax,

nice result, well done!! Would you share a bit more about your "technic"?
It is based on TZ or Similarity too?
Thanks

Regards
  • #9,795
  • Edited 9:53pm Oct 2, 2014 9:29pm | Edited 9:53pm
Quoting Bilstein
{quote} Oh yeah, comparing historical positioning extremes is one thing - I was referencing your comment (which you apparently deleted) about "Maybe we should inform banks and the (always right) commercial traders" ... {image}
Just as I was about to take your posts seriously, you gave yourself away by false accusations &/or unchecked assumptions.
I have never deleted any post nor will I ever do; if this little detail was too hard for you to check, then I can just imagine how many details you are missing while analyzing the COT reports.

I encourage you to go back to my initial post and check what context it was written in.
Commercials = Smart money & yes they are almost always right, and betting against them is a fool's job.
However, you would also be a bigger fool to follow them before extreme positioning since they have much deeper pockets than you and I.

Using COT is not for day trading or scalping, its for longer term position trading.

If you're interested, I can recommend you few books to read.
  • #9,796
  • Oct 2, 2014 9:32pm Oct 2, 2014 9:32pm
Quoting wealthpro
{quote} is this manual trades or use EA
Manual trades
  • #9,797
  • Oct 2, 2014 11:08pm Oct 2, 2014 11:08pm
I have been downloading all kind of stoch diff indicator in this thread including tpl with it, tried on 12 brokers @@ but still cant get to load the indicator.......so can anyone here gv me some help? upload a stoch zone indicator of exe file? Thanks in advance if anyone can help.
  • #9,798
  • Oct 2, 2014 11:17pm Oct 2, 2014 11:17pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting Barbaresco
Came in for a 1st post in a very long time and was blinded by Borat! My eyes - now they're really closed! I read the thread over the last few days and am excited to have my eyes opened - what great work you have all done - wish I hadn't been run off by the FF police so long ago. Anyway, each time I think I have a full understanding of what EURUSDD is saying/implying, I go to charts to build my Queen and it doesn't seem to pan out the way I had envisioned. First, confusion re: the 97%, 3%. Using the tester written by K, find approx. 3% frequency...
Welcome Barbaresco,

I have come to the same conclusions. I have experimented a lot and tried high and low h values on different TFs. You would think that a higher h value might reduce the number of successive TZs but when there is a powerful move into an area where price has not been for a while it makes no difference. So some of the probabilities presented do not always seem to stack up based on our interpretation of what Eurusdd has presented. Eurusdd although he makes good calls most of the time but occasionally he has got it wrong (so he has not been 100%!!!). As mentioned in some of my previous posts you will also see that the way he said to trade TZs often puts you on the wrong side of a trend.

So what we have is not perfect (or not what we expected) but many have shown (without giving too much away) that there are different ways to trade this successfully. But as you should also notice many of the calls that have been made on here have not always been right. Personally I have not figured out a way to predict exact price levels but the way I trade (scalping) does not really require such.

Although it would be great to reach such levels of perfection in our trading I think you have to just find something that will give you an edge in the market. TZs while not perfect can give you an edge. Maybe it is that you have to implement a rule to prevent you from damaging your account by trading against powerful moves. Or you could decide to only trade toward TZs. What about incorporating TZs with other strategies?

There are many ways to trade this successfully and don't believe everything you read about other people's success as you will often not hear about when a trader has had a bad day or has blown up! That said I am sure that many have found a way to control losses and make the most out of what they know about TZs.

Regards

Neio
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #9,799
  • Oct 2, 2014 11:28pm Oct 2, 2014 11:28pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote}All you need to win is this simple statement: There is a minimum value for h for which >97% of prices are h-recurrent!!! That is all. Take your 5 min/1min chart and just look!!! How you make money using that information is for you to decide! Many people have found their levels and are ok. Numbers don't lie!!! If the market wants to beat this law/theorem, they will have to make most prices transient which will make the market beatable or less random. So, the market is in favor of recurrent prices. The more of these and just a few...
Further to my previous post. While sometimes the numbers don't stack up what we can see is that for a high percentage of time the market (EUR/USD) likes to be recurrent.

FYI here is the last call that EURUSDD got wrong.

Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} 50 pips on either side. top will be above 1.2830 in this case. we are still in 1 h4r bar.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #9,800
  • Oct 2, 2014 11:48pm Oct 2, 2014 11:48pm
Thanks Neio, yes it seems rather straightforward to come up with a strategy with an edge based on the principles in the thread.

However, I'm still searching for something more exact. When computing the probabilities using the premise laid out by EURUSDD and coded into the indi by K, the misleading part seems to come from the bars where the movement was too small to be tradeable, i.e. <= Spread + a tiny profit, say 1 pt. Essentially all of these bars are recurrent, and become a large part of the data set. So, your 97% isn't 97% at all.

What if bars were constructed to be X pts each, regardless of time? And we ran similar probabilities on this data set... Then it would be relevant with regard to price movement, rather than time and lines in the sand, effectively limiting drawdown to XY pts with Z% accuracy. A tick chart could work as well I guess, but the algo would need to be changed to only count a "unit" when the local max-min = X pts, instead of counting bars.

Thinking out loud... plz don't bash the new guy.
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