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The similarity system

  • #9,761
  • Oct 2, 2014 6:36am Oct 2, 2014 6:36am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Oh cool! I didn't know that you'd progressed on that front. Excellent! Well done - I know you'd been working hard on that front for ages! Is that to do with Special Agent K? (from Men In Black - sorry bad joke)
jajajja
I keep looking for that lost character.
But I am getting closer.
97 & recurrent area, 3% transient area. It is possible at any time, get those odds?
  • #9,762
  • Oct 2, 2014 6:36am Oct 2, 2014 6:36am
Quoting Albertdkpllh
@Vlady...I mean for the calls that u make with precision sometimes...
Actually, during daylight (ie work day) since I don't have MT4 at work I don't see anything but an IGIndex chart.
So unfortunately, I don't get to see the wonderful toys you guys are playing with. I must admit, this puts me in a bind.

At home recently, I traded UJ and AUD during Asia and it was soooooooooooo much easier. With IG, I get it wrong sometimes due to the nature of the environment.... I can't keep that bloody chart up without people seeing and I then have to put lines all over the place to set my TZ. I overlay that with my Bollinger and I have previously placed S/R lines. That's it... no calculation.

What I have been doing recently, is I evaluate 4H, 1H, 15M and sometimes 5M timeframes with their own respective h values and I plot them out on the MT4 chart.
I then write them down on an email in sections and they become like a crib sheet of S/R prices. It's crude, but that's the only way I can get indicator driven values. I then have to make the call real time... and trade it or not depending. Obviously the levels co-mingle with newly formed TZ levels... so my charts can get messy and I delete everything and start again. This is the way I've been training my eyes to spot the "formations" on a near naked chart.

Sorry - this may not be the answer you were expecting.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,763
  • Oct 2, 2014 6:40am Oct 2, 2014 6:40am
Quoting burnssss
{quote} jajajja I keep looking for that lost character. But I am getting closer. 97 & recurrent area, 3% transient area. It is possible at any time, get those odds?
Kprsa calculates it in his indi but it's a decimal based on the average. I get that - and it's truly inspired. What I'm not sure of is Eurusdd's statement where he actually states that "for positive integers h and k......" there exists transient and recurring prices. It's his Proposition 1 statement.

So if it's positive integers, it can't be 0.1, 0.2, 0.3.... unless of course the formula within converts the 1,2,3 into 0.1 etc.
But again, just speculating. In the beginning I thought it had to do with Pip/Price differential that related to your SL sensitivity. ie. Given a TZ, if you want a 5 pip precision SL, then k = 5 and it would reduce the height of the TZ by k and the width is already set as h.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,764
  • Oct 2, 2014 6:45am Oct 2, 2014 6:45am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Oh cool! I didn't know that you'd progressed on that front. Excellent! Well done - I know you'd been working hard on that front for ages! Is that to do with Special Agent K? (from Men In Black - sorry bad joke)
Hahaha......well am counting on you to be there 24/7 you and everyone here are doing a marvelous job. Kudos to all..
Thanks.
My help is in the name of the Lord who made heaven and earth.
  • #9,765
  • Oct 2, 2014 6:47am Oct 2, 2014 6:47am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Kprsa calculates it in his indi but it's a decimal based on the average. I get that - and it's truly inspired. What I'm not sure of is Eurusdd's statement where he actually states that "for positive integers h and k......" there exists transient and recurring prices. It's his Proposition 1 statement. So if it's positive integers, it can't be 0.1, 0.2, 0.3.... unless of course the formula within converts the 1,2,3 into 0.1 etc. But again, just speculating. In the beginning I thought it had to do with Pip/Price differential that related to...
"k" depends on demand, thus, has nothing to do with SL. "k" is an integer, which must be a number between (0, + inf).
You can set conditions for "k" with these two qualities?
  • #9,766
  • Oct 2, 2014 6:55am Oct 2, 2014 6:55am
Quoting burnssss
{quote} "k" depends on demand, thus, has nothing to do with SL. "k" is an integer, which must be a number between (0, + inf). You can set conditions for "k" with these two qualities?
How so? That's a new thought. I'm presuming that's nothing to do with Demand/Supply per se
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,767
  • Oct 2, 2014 7:01am Oct 2, 2014 7:01am
Quoting Albertdkpllh
{quote} Hahaha......well am counting on you to be there 24/7 you and everyone here are doing a marvelous job. Kudos to all.. Thanks.
Cheers dude. I'm actually not on any trades today. I've got an internal exam tomorrow I'm preparing for so I'm watching only.... of course it'll get interesting in about 30-40 minutes so you'll never know.

Fx-Jay has made some very interesting comments and one part of which is in line with my expected Wave 4 bounce. Some other topics I have been working on suggests that a cycle is ending Sep-End/Oct-Start.... but I've not been able to calculate this further with my feeble maths so I'm just being attentive.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,768
  • Oct 2, 2014 7:02am Oct 2, 2014 7:02am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} How so? That's a new thought. I'm presuming that's nothing to do with Demand/Supply per se
jajajj is this what differentiates "eurusdd" of us. A great imagination !!!
I keep looking for the "k" lost.
  • #9,769
  • Oct 2, 2014 7:24am Oct 2, 2014 7:24am
Quoting FX-Jay
A new gem discovered using the TZ and probability theories presented here. This one focuses more on longer term trends & requires minimum followup + it has set Stop Losses. I have managed to manually back-test each and every trade on the eur/usd chart for the period ranging from Jan 2010 till September 2014. I will do my best to backtest further into the history, and include other pairs also. The stats so far: Total Number of Trades : 137 Long Trades: 68 of which 28 are profitable Short Trades: 69 of which 30 are profitable As you may have noticed,...
I just saw the powerful way u analyse long term strength of the market. It will really help a lot in my trading style. Just a couple of questions. Is that back test only for eurusd, or other pairs inclusive.? Were you able to also include some other areas where it failed to be a turning point as the trend continues? Also did you use mainly tracient indicator to achieve that results? And please what is your h factor number for this, stop loss range and time frame you analyse. I chart sample will be better. Know that I fully follow you now for it will really help also. Thanks very much for I like to trade this on daily pairs because of my job, and also see how to analyse and boost it with sd zones. Kudos to you people for making every thing work well and bringing new ideals that are really helpful for life.
We Win Some, We Loose Some, But Let your Win Rates be More to be Successful
  • #9,770
  • Oct 2, 2014 7:40am Oct 2, 2014 7:40am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} So if it's positive integers, it can't be 0.1, 0.2, 0.3.... unless of course the formula within converts the 1,2,3 into 0.1 etc.
Hi, k is usually not an integer. One could in principle set it to be integer in terms of pips or pip/10.

k
  • #9,771
  • Oct 2, 2014 7:51am Oct 2, 2014 7:51am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Hi, k is usually not an integer. One could in principle set it to be integer in terms of pips or pip/10. k
Yes, that was my original thinking... Pips. So if it needs to be divided into, then the resultant K(k) would then be decimal.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,772
  • Oct 2, 2014 8:11am Oct 2, 2014 8:11am
Quoting FX-Jay
Since the year has not much left before ending, each coming Inflection Number will have a very high probability of being the one that will trigger one the above large moves. For now keep an eye on 1.2777, I will update it once/if it changes (i.e becomes smaller/lower).
The Inflection Number is now 1.2765
  • #9,773
  • Oct 2, 2014 8:11am Oct 2, 2014 8:11am
Quoting ephisi
missed my swings. looking to take a swing short 1.2660/70 ish targeting below 1.2576
she got to my mentioned zone. lets see what happens . hope everyone is cool
  • #9,774
  • Oct 2, 2014 9:12am Oct 2, 2014 9:12am
Quoting ephisi
missed my swings. looking to take a swing short 1.2660/70 ish targeting below 1.2576
Draghi took eurusd a bit higher but exactly what i expected. lets see if eurusd will break the lows in next few days
  • #9,775
  • Oct 2, 2014 9:45am Oct 2, 2014 9:45am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Draghi took eurusd a bit higher but exactly what i expected. lets see if eurusd will break the lows in next few days
1.26 seems to be quite a bottom for 2 years...
  • #9,776
  • Oct 2, 2014 11:33am Oct 2, 2014 11:33am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Maybe we should inform banks and the (always right) commercial traders i.e smart money that the economy has changed in order for them to start letting go of their Euro longs and USD shorts. The last time I checked they were at all time high levels in USD shorts and close to all time high levels in Euro longs. Btw last time was today Poor guys, they probably have been working so hard, and not having time to watch Bloomberg or read some internet articles to realize that the economy has changed. {image} {image}
Commercial trader positioning consists of entities that use the traded instruments for hedging and business purposes. As such, their positioning data typically reflects them buying during downtrends and selling during uptrends. Commercial traders don't trade for speculation on appreciation or depreciation of an instrument. Large "non-commercial" traders, on the other hand, do. That's why, if you monitor COT reports, they're typically on the right side of the trend and commercial traders are on the "wrong" side of the trend.
  • #9,777
  • Oct 2, 2014 11:44am Oct 2, 2014 11:44am
Quoting Bilstein
{quote} Commercial trader positioning consists of entities that use the traded instruments for hedging and business purposes. As such, their positioning data typically reflects them buying during downtrends and selling during uptrends. Commercial traders don't trade for speculation on appreciation or depreciation of an instrument. Large "non-commercial" traders, on the other hand, do. That's why, if you monitor COT reports, they're typically on the right side of the trend and commercial traders are on the "wrong" side of the trend.

Sensible post!
  • #9,778
  • Oct 2, 2014 12:19pm Oct 2, 2014 12:19pm
Quoting Bilstein
{quote} Commercial trader positioning consists of entities that use the traded instruments for hedging and business purposes. As such, their positioning data typically reflects them buying during downtrends and selling during uptrends. Commercial traders don't trade for speculation on appreciation or depreciation of an instrument. Large "non-commercial" traders, on the other hand, do. That's why, if you monitor COT reports, they're typically on the right side of the trend and commercial traders are on the "wrong" side of the trend.
That's correct to a certain extent.

However, what I'm looking at now is a trend exhaustion/change & at that phase its the speculators that get squeezed.
I've been analysing COT reports for long enough to know how both Commercials & Large Specs position themselves before trend changes.

Feel free to have a look at the following COT reports & relate them to the current extreme situations of the Euro and USD
- Pound in June 2014
- Gold end of August 2014
- Crude Oil mid June 2014
- Euro June 2012

& btw what about small speculators (i.e. retailers)? Aren't they typically on the wrong side of the market?
  • #9,779
  • Oct 2, 2014 1:01pm Oct 2, 2014 1:01pm
Quoting wireash
i will explain my point of view when it comes to TZ system if there are enough people that are interested in it
Dear wireash,

as I'm very new to TZ system, it should be very usefull to see and understand your point of view.
Thanks in advance
  • #9,780
  • Oct 2, 2014 1:09pm Oct 2, 2014 1:09pm
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Any ways guys I am here to share the knowledge I have learned from the TZ & not my opinions about neither the economy nor my other trading styles/ techniques. I've been trading for the last 5 years, and averaging a 15% quarterly return for the last 3 years (which I am more that happy with) My success in the principals presented here is less than 2 weeks old! While my success in other methods have been there for quite some time. However, a 15% return/quarter is not 'crowd pleasing', a 55% in less than 2 weeks is more catchy. I will throw...
Dear FX-Jay,

I'm very interested in gather your knowledge what you share with us.

Thanks
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