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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #14,701
  • Oct 1, 2014 1:12am Oct 1, 2014 1:12am
The importance of this news will depend on how the market doesn't react in the direction of the news. With a 50 pip ranging market since the last 5 trading days...so much momentum has been accumulated. Nobody knows where this is heading unless your auntie is chairman Yellen and you can shoot me a PM. Till then ill be patiently waiting for this breakout
  • #14,702
  • Oct 1, 2014 1:19am Oct 1, 2014 1:19am
It will be interesting to see if this whip saws to 178.37 before tanking downwards...that would be how I would do it if I was a banker with money order flows. Its also important not to be fixated on 1 idea so I will also pay attention to the 200 EMA on the 1 hrly charts and see if price is driven there for a long entry. Till then im in no rush for a trade.
  • #14,703
  • Oct 1, 2014 5:30am Oct 1, 2014 5:30am
About time my sell order got triggered, been waiting 3hrs for that. Traded the 1hr chart reversal/confirmation. Good luck
  • #14,704
  • Oct 1, 2014 8:37am Oct 1, 2014 8:37am
only went for 50+ pips that was a 2:1 RR . We are presently sitting on the 200 EMA and looking for a long entry is not a bad idea if it reverses 177.42 might be the sweet spot depending on price action or how aggressive your strategy is. Gl and done for the day.
  • #14,705
  • Oct 1, 2014 12:54pm Oct 1, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
only went for 50+ pips that was a 2:1 RR . We are presently sitting on the 200 EMA and looking for a long entry is not a bad idea if it reverses 177.42 might be the sweet spot depending on price action or how aggressive your strategy is. Gl and done for the day.
Aaaaand she dropped! I was hoping to be awake in case something happened, but I need to sleep sometime.

Going to wait in the PA for this one. Not sure how much I'll take going long though. Considering how this pair's behaved lately, I might just go without a TP and just using a trailing stop instead.

And of course this thread has been quiet. The pair has been pretty quiet this week before this drop.
  • #14,706
  • Oct 1, 2014 2:58pm Oct 1, 2014 2:58pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
About time my sell order got triggered, been waiting 3hrs for that. Traded the 1hr chart reversal/confirmation. Good luck
That was well timed, well done, would have been better if you have stayed in a bit longer but its always better in pocket than on table, looking for a long entry soon. Cheers!
  • #14,707
  • Oct 1, 2014 7:34pm Oct 1, 2014 7:34pm
And, following from my facetious earlier post - "Further yen weakening may trigger intervention"

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/1...-october-2014/
  • #14,708
  • Oct 1, 2014 9:22pm Oct 1, 2014 9:22pm
Quoting Mpt
... intervention
Oh crap. You said the magic word. Now the thread will be all about intervention.
  • #14,709
  • Oct 1, 2014 9:33pm Oct 1, 2014 9:33pm
Quoting IndigoPingvi
{quote} Oh crap. You said the magic word. Now the thread will be all about intervention.
Shit, I forgot about that - having long campaigned for that word to be banned here. Oh well, too late now.
  • #14,710
  • Edited 11:28pm Oct 1, 2014 11:13pm | Edited 11:28pm
Quoting IndigoPingvi
{quote} Oh crap. You said the magic word. Now the thread will be all about intervention.
Sorry, I couldn't resist. A brief overview as to what I think inspired the various interventions (and there was at least one earlier, from memory).

They weren't happy below that channel line and they ain't happy that it's where it is. Will price find support a little further down below 176 (as in monthly pivot), will it track down to about 174/5 or 173? We will find out.

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  • #14,711
  • Oct 1, 2014 11:33pm Oct 1, 2014 11:33pm
Quoting workingforex
{quote} That was well timed, well done, would have been better if you have stayed in a bit longer but its always better in pocket than on table, looking for a long entry soon. Cheers!

Thank you !!! , much appreciated. Sometimes taking a loss is easier to deal with than feeling like I left that much pips on the table and I knew that once it broke range it was going to be a strong move and should be held on to ( I had already included in my plan ) . Sold @ 177.97 and took less than 50 pips off a 170 move. I felt so down yesterday I couldn't look at any charts. But hey today is a new day lets see what it offers
  • #14,712
  • Oct 1, 2014 11:58pm Oct 1, 2014 11:58pm
So right now we see on the hrly that 176.64 zone is acting as resistance after been support in September 23. First wave of the move was very strong, there is a high probability for a 2nd wave down. Although we are looking to sell we have to take into consideration between striking a balance of a good entry and been aggressive. The Usd/Jpy was somewhat of a catalyst to the Gbp/Jpy as the 110 number it achieved sparked a dollar sell-off which played into Jpy strength. Watching Usd/Jpy to some extent can give some clues as to how to play this out.
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  • #14,713
  • Oct 2, 2014 12:17am Oct 2, 2014 12:17am
​As pointed out last week, it played the fib game (which is uncommon for the pair) in that it sat around the 23.6 area of 178.1. Now it ponces about the 38.2. Which somewhat suggests that the 50 or 61.8 may have a bearing on what happens.
​
  • #14,714
  • Oct 2, 2014 12:38am Oct 2, 2014 12:38am
Quoting Mpt
​As pointed out last week, it played the fib game (which is uncommon for the pair) in that it sat around the 23.6 area of 178.1. Now it ponces about the 38.2. Which somewhat suggests that the 50 or 61.8 may have a bearing on what happens. ​
Nice Observation there, 175.90/00 and 176.60/80 looks about right as key zones to watch. Although been bearish has a higher probability right now, we all know that the overall long term trend is still bullish. I will be taking any move this pair makes as arguments can be made for both bullish and a bearish opportunities here. With the way things are setting up right now we may revisit 177.30 much sooner than later.
  • #14,715
  • Edited 1:10am Oct 2, 2014 12:56am | Edited 1:10am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Nice Observation there, 175.90/00 and 176.60/80 looks about right as key zones to watch. Although been bearish has a higher probability right now, we all know that the overall long term trend is still bullish. I will be taking any move this pair makes as arguments can be made for both bullish and a bearish opportunities here. With the way things are setting up right now we may revisit 177.30 much sooner than later.
​Yes, but as also commented last week, a fall out of the 61.8 at about 173.5 would fall into 170.5/171.x. At that point, I would expect a consolidation that drops back to 168/166.2, then any consequent bounce would fail at 180.6, before a deeper drop. I think that 173x is vitally significant for its future prospects.

In simple terms, does it find support for another move up into 18x or does it fall back into a large correction. FYI, should it find support and get up, resistance is around 184/186
  • #14,716
  • Oct 2, 2014 1:55am Oct 2, 2014 1:55am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
... (test of 175.36 area)... {image}
And we landed... Good place to long...
  • #14,717
  • Oct 2, 2014 2:03am Oct 2, 2014 2:03am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
{quote} And we landed... Good place to long...
still waiting here until the bearish turn to bullish
  • #14,718
  • Oct 2, 2014 2:20am Oct 2, 2014 2:20am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
{quote} And we landed... Good place to long...
Yep it sure is but except if you aggressive. If you look at 15 min charts of both Usd/Jpy and Eur/Jpy respectively it looks like it reversed already and Eur/Jpy is actually retracing for a buy entry. I did place a buy limit with the Usd/Jpy @ 108.38 and SL @ 108.25 Gbp/Jpy is moving a little slower, you can take a look here. it also has a potential to drop a few pips more so if you can take the pain then its a go .
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  • #14,719
  • Oct 2, 2014 2:26am Oct 2, 2014 2:26am
Quoting mattren
{quote} still waiting here until the bearish turn to bullish
UJ holds, but cable look s ready to break. If it drops, next pause is at 175.0
  • #14,720
  • Oct 2, 2014 2:30am Oct 2, 2014 2:30am
Yeah, I'm still holding off on the geppy for now. Just going to wait for a nice push down that leaves a big wick. It might very well just sit in consolidation for a bit before dropping one more time. I might be tempted to put in a small long. Like 10-15 pips, but that's it. I'd need some nice PA to come along before I consider going for a bigger take at this point.
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