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The similarity system

  • #9,681
  • Oct 1, 2014 4:33am Oct 1, 2014 4:33am
Quoting josh11
Hi all, I am back now from holiday hope we are all doing well and making lots of pips
welcome back hope you had a nice rest.
Regards Orid peter
  • #9,682
  • Oct 1, 2014 4:38am Oct 1, 2014 4:38am
Quoting orid
{quote} welcome back hope you had a nice rest. Regards Orid peter
Thank you mate its been nice and have been able to create some good ideas...
  • #9,683
  • Oct 1, 2014 4:47am Oct 1, 2014 4:47am
Quoting josh11
Hi all, I am back now from holiday hope we are all doing well and making lots of pips
Hey Josh!
Good to have you back mate! Hope all is well!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,684
  • Oct 1, 2014 5:15am Oct 1, 2014 5:15am
For those of you who like scalping, here's a high probability setup for you. Good for 30 - 40pips easy. Enjoy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM30.png Size: 22 KB
  • #9,685
  • Oct 1, 2014 5:16am Oct 1, 2014 5:16am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Hi, you're right. They are not really independent events so the probability is not really a product of two individual probabilities. It is quite possible to have two subsequent transient zones in cases of strong trend. k
Yeah, after I wrote this I realized having two transient zones in succession would be the same thing as simply doubling k. I guess where I'm hung up is EURUSDD's emphasis on assuming the incomplete transient zone is transient and targeting the zone above/below as recurrent. I'll have to go back and read, but I guess what I assumed he meant, but didn't realize until your comment, was that the two events were independent... that's why you target the zone above/below the most recent incomplete transient zone. He has said that choice of k is what differentiates strategies, so I'm thinking there is another way to go about this.
  • #9,686
  • Oct 1, 2014 5:19am Oct 1, 2014 5:19am
Quoting LITEchild
For those of you who like scalping, here's a high probability setup for you. Good for 30 - 40pips easy. Enjoy. {image}
Hey LITEchild,

Perhaps it would be good for the newcomers if you marked the bar when you entered the trade or moved the SL.
The obvious newbie question would be...."why are you selling into the TZ.... isn't that support? So does that mean you always sell into a TZ?"
Know what I mean?

BTW... that's a great strategy. You and Hepsibah have got that type of "counter" style that is actually quite simple.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,687
  • Oct 1, 2014 5:28am Oct 1, 2014 5:28am
Quoting LITEchild
For those of you who like scalping, here's a high probability setup for you. Good for 30 - 40pips easy. Enjoy. {image}
I am still long from 12588 with SL at BE so no risk, I think we should see some more up

Best of luck
  • #9,688
  • Oct 1, 2014 5:32am Oct 1, 2014 5:32am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hey LITEchild, Perhaps it would be good for the newcomers if you marked the bar when you entered the trade or moved the SL. The obvious newbie question would be...."why are you selling into the TZ.... isn't that support? So does that mean you always sell into a TZ?" Know what I mean? BTW... that's a great strategy. You and Hepsibah have got that type of "counter" style that is actually quite simple.
My open trades are not from scalp setups. I'm swing trading. I do notice the attractive scalp opportunities for those so inclined. The scalp is just setting up now. Candle just closed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM30.png Size: 24 KB
  • #9,689
  • Oct 1, 2014 5:36am Oct 1, 2014 5:36am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} My open trades are not from scalp setups. I'm swing trading. I do notice the attractive scalp opportunities for those so inclined. The scalp is just setting up now. Candle just closed. {image}
N.B - for newbies, notice that the LOW of the last TZ has been taken out 17-18 candles back. That's why there's confidence to trade into that support. Coupled with the fact we are in a strong down trend of course. So respect only PROVEN strong support in a strong downtrend. Don't try to catch bottoms.
  • #9,690
  • Oct 1, 2014 5:38am Oct 1, 2014 5:38am
Hey guys, just wanted to apologize for not being able to answer all the PMs in the last few days
It's been a hectic week, but now I'm back and I bring with me some great news

1- The strategy that you probably know me for is still working as good as it did from day 1. I am just amazed by the results.
I'll post a detailed post on this later.

2- I am working on a variation of the above strategy that integrates all time frames in order to give more accurate entries and exists in case the signals get invalidated.
Lots of people have criticized me for not using SL even though I have explained the importance of money management and explained my trading technique more than once. So I decided to find a solution for those of you who feel safer with a set Stop Loss.
However, keep in mind that you can make extreme profit with minimum drawdowns without the use of any SL, all you need is good money management and some discipline

3- I'm in the process of back-testing a strategy (that is also only purely based on TZ) which will allow us to time and catch large moves (100-500 pips).
Results so far are extremely promising. I managed to go back until 2010 with my testing. I want to test some variations to make sure this strategy is as stable as the 1st one + I will back-test it with pairs other than EUR/USD too before taking it to live testing.
  • #9,691
  • Oct 1, 2014 5:39am Oct 1, 2014 5:39am
Quoting josh11
{quote} I am still long from 12588 with SL at BE so no risk, I think we should see some more up Best of luck
That's EU right? I'm trading AU. That being said, I wouldn't buy EUR right now. But that's just me, and I'm not a scalper of course so...
  • #9,692
  • Oct 1, 2014 5:43am Oct 1, 2014 5:43am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} That's EU right? I'm trading AU. That being said, I wouldn't buy EUR right now. But that's just me, and I'm not a scalper of course so...
Sorry mate didn't enlarge the chart, yeah just scalping atm with no risk on the table hoping for a bigger push up lets see

Best of luck mate
  • #9,693
  • Oct 1, 2014 5:43am Oct 1, 2014 5:43am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30.png Size: 39 KB
  • #9,694
  • Oct 1, 2014 5:44am Oct 1, 2014 5:44am
Quoting FX-Jay
Hey guys, just wanted to apologize for not being able to answer all the PMs in the last few days It's been a hectic week, but now I'm back and I bring with me some great news 1- The strategy that you probably know me for is still working as good as it did from day 1. I am just amazed by the results. I'll post a detailed post on this later. 2- I am working on a variation of the above strategy that integrates all time frames in order to give more accurate entries and exists in case the signals get invalidated. Lots of people have criticized me for...
Great work mate, looking forward to it
  • #9,695
  • Edited 6:09am Oct 1, 2014 5:54am | Edited 6:09am
Hello,

I am not english and that's probably why ithe deifnitions of transient and recurrent still not clear.

- TZ = transient zone : transient means impermanent, ephemeral, transitory... So a transient price must be revisited.

- RZ = recurrent zone : recurrent means frequent, repeating... so a recurrent price must be revisited.

I dont really understand the difference between transient and recurrent in terms of price.
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #9,696
  • Edited 6:25am Oct 1, 2014 6:02am | Edited 6:25am
Quoting VVizlan
{quote} Yeah, after I wrote this I realized having two transient zones in succession would be the same thing as simply doubling k.
Not necessarily. You can have two transient zones on two subsequent candles even if they have a minor overlap (a minor recurrent region - pullback; edit: see the above picture in LITEchild's post for a nice example on EURUSD!).

Quoting VVizlan
{quote} I guess what I assumed he meant, but didn't realize until your comment, was that the two events were independent...
They are independent events if one assumes that the Markov property holds, i.e. that the system has no memory. This assumption is not true in reality and fails notably in strong trends, but it is still a very good starting approximation and makes calculating things much simpler.

Quoting VVizlan
{quote}He has said that choice of k is what differentiates strategies
You'd typically choose h, and then you can calculate k, at least that is what the RecurrenceStatistic indicator does. You could in principle do the inversion (to have a "target" k), but in my opinion the best way even for this would to play with the h value to get the mean k right.

There are really many ways of approaching this. Whatever you decide to do, if it works, is great.

Cheers,
k
  • #9,697
  • Oct 1, 2014 6:06am Oct 1, 2014 6:06am
There you go guys, the results for the 3 weeks live testing! Even better results than the back-testing.
( If you want to check the day by day results, you can go through my older posts )

190 out of 198 profit trades (96%)
Largest volume = 1
Max Consecutive losses = 2

Return in less than 3 weeks: 69% (57% including floating P&L)

All current open positions will be closed by next Tuesday
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 65 KB
  • #9,698
  • Oct 1, 2014 6:11am Oct 1, 2014 6:11am
Quoting FX-Jay
There you go guys, the results for the 3 weeks live testing! Even better results than the back-testing. ( If you want to check the day by day results, you can go through my older posts ) 190 out of 198 profit trades (96%) Largest volume = 1 Max Consecutive losses = 2 Return in less than 3 weeks: 69% (57% including floating P&L) All current open positions will be closed by next Tuesday {image}
Congratulations FX-Jay, looks really awesome.

Well done

It seems there are so many different possibilities to make it work. One has just to find the one way fitting his/her style i guess.
TWEE, revoke my membership.
  • #9,699
  • Oct 1, 2014 6:12am Oct 1, 2014 6:12am
Quoting limprobable
Hello, I am not english and that's probably why ithe deifnitions of transient and recurrent still not clear. - TZ = transient zone : transient means impermanent, ephemeral, transitory... So a transient price must be revisited. - RZ = recurrent zone : recurrent means frequent, repeating... so a recurrent price must be revisited. I dont really understand the difference between transient and recurrent in terms of price. Secondly, do we talk about zone (between two prices) or price?
I think you have it slightly mixed up.

Transient = in passing = happens infrequently
Recurrent = re-occurs = happens again

Therefore,

Transient Price = happens once or not often
Recurrent Price = happens alot or is returned to alot

Zone = Range of Prices.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,700
  • Oct 1, 2014 6:17am Oct 1, 2014 6:17am
Quoting FX-Jay
There you go guys, the results for the 3 weeks live testing! Even better results than the back-testing. ( If you want to check the day by day results, you can go through my older posts ) 190 out of 198 profit trades (96%) Largest volume = 1 Max Consecutive losses = 2 Return in less than 3 weeks: 69% (57% including floating P&L) All current open positions will be closed by next Tuesday {image}
Excellent results Jay!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
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