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USD/RUB

  • #81
  • Sep 30, 2014 7:29am Sep 30, 2014 7:29am
USD is too strong atm ..and Russia vs Ukraine is not fixed... need many time for going down i think
  • #82
  • Edited 3:10pm Sep 30, 2014 10:46am | Edited 3:10pm
Quoting surfeur
USD is too strong atm ..and Russia vs Ukraine is not fixed... need many time for going down i think
You're probably correct ... . The technicals are all in favor of further bullishness, as are the fundamentals. If you enter here I as did, you are potentially looking at a several week, if not several month sell and hold proposition.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #83
  • Oct 2, 2014 4:31am Oct 2, 2014 4:31am
Hi.
I want to get my 2 cents of my shoulders. There is an apparent pressure on Ruble . Everybody in Russia including my grandma expect ruble to move above 40.
I say: forget about it. Last bunch of news about not lifting the sanctions did not have an effect. Anything positive will. 37-37.50 is short term target. I am short 39.60 and sleep well.
  • #84
  • Oct 2, 2014 6:52am Oct 2, 2014 6:52am
I always think this pair it the most predictable one to make money, but still I hardly trade this, kind of scared that it will go to another way. Besides, the swap costs too much.
  • #85
  • Oct 2, 2014 6:18pm Oct 2, 2014 6:18pm
The pair is now in a short-term range/consolidation:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD:RUB ST Range:Consolidation.jpg Size: 187 KB


As previously indicated by the Russian Central Bank, interventions in the value of the currency would occur were the EUR/RUB-USD/RUB Basket to exceed 44.4. Having come very close to that value today, the RCB modestly intervened in the currency to the tune of $4 million, driving it briefly downward. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...ort-ruble.html

Because the EUR/RUB-USD/RUB Basket remains somewhat close to RCB intervention territory, I anticipate further interventions, particularly if the USD/RUB component of the basket continues to display unusual strength and if the basket refuses to relinquish the 44 mark.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #86
  • Oct 3, 2014 1:30pm Oct 3, 2014 1:30pm
Welcome 40... next week 42
  • #87
  • Oct 3, 2014 3:46pm Oct 3, 2014 3:46pm
Quoting surfeur
Welcome 40... next week 42
Oh, snap, for my short position, I guess ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #88
  • Oct 5, 2014 2:36pm Oct 5, 2014 2:36pm
Quoting Ironballs
Hi. I want to get my 2 cents of my shoulders. There is an apparent pressure on Ruble . Everybody in Russia including my grandma expect ruble to move above 40. I say: forget about it. Last bunch of news about not lifting the sanctions did not have an effect. Anything positive will. 37-37.50 is short term target. I am short 39.60 and sleep well.
Guess your grandmother was right ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #89
  • Oct 5, 2014 2:36pm Oct 5, 2014 2:36pm
At Sydney open, moving higher, albeit with a 40+ pip spread:

Attached Image


Currency basket is again near the top of if not in excess of what the RCB has said was the acceptable trading band (35.40 to 44.40):

Attached Image
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #90
  • Oct 5, 2014 2:40pm Oct 5, 2014 2:40pm
Net position short at 39.471. Perfectly comfortable holding the position for several weeks given the small lot size ... . It is not a trade for the impatient.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #91
  • Oct 5, 2014 2:59pm Oct 5, 2014 2:59pm
yes patience patience the times play with us ! need just right money/risk management
  • #92
  • Oct 5, 2014 3:24pm Oct 5, 2014 3:24pm
Quoting surfeur
yes patience patience the times play with us ! need just right money/risk management
The unfortunate thing about this pair is that it generally costs more per pip and uses more margin than other pairs ... . Nature of the beast, I suppose.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #93
  • Oct 6, 2014 3:25pm Oct 6, 2014 3:25pm
Not huge movement south, but movement nevertheless:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD:RUB Short.jpg Size: 194 KB


My target price remains 38.395 ... . Got a ways to go.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #94
  • Oct 7, 2014 11:00pm Oct 7, 2014 11:00pm
http://qz.com/277211/russias-currenc...ng-to-stop-it/
small excerpt...

'What’s more, Russia won’t go out of its way to support the ruble like it did in the past, as it sticks with a plan to let the currency float freely from next year. ...'
  • #95
  • Oct 8, 2014 3:16pm Oct 8, 2014 3:16pm
Quoting Greenstar
http://qz.com/277211/russias-currenc...ng-to-stop-it/ small excerpt... 'What’s more, Russia won’t go out of its way to support the ruble like it did in the past, as it sticks with a plan to let the currency float freely from next year. ...'
Could go way higher ... . Especially if the RCB runs out of currency to prop it up, and no resolution to the Ukraine matter is forthcoming ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #96
  • Oct 8, 2014 11:00pm Oct 8, 2014 11:00pm
Yes true... It's strong atm . no want go down...
  • #97
  • Oct 9, 2014 4:10am Oct 9, 2014 4:10am
Now the ruble falls. Very quickly.
How to make money on it.
The system.
Deposit required: $ 1,000.
Buy usd / rub the whole deposit with a shoulder 100. It will be $ 100 000 = 1 lot.
Close the deal by 100 points.
We are already in the account will be $ 2,000.
Open a new deal again with all the money. Already at $ 2,000!
Such transactions should be done 10 pieces.
The essence of the method is to double the initial deposit 10 times!
1000 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 = 1024000
1000-2000-4000-8000-16000-32000-64000-128000-256000-512000-1024000
  • #98
  • Oct 9, 2014 2:56pm Oct 9, 2014 2:56pm
I may have to be in the short for quite some time ... . Hoping for an interest rate hike by the RCB to bolster the currency in the event they can no longer prop it up with currency reserves.

If you want to go long, I'd recommend entering and getting out as quickly as possible to avoid the negative swap; it'll otherwise eat your profit up if you're only going for small pips. Right now the daily ATR is around 58 pips, which is plenty to play with ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #99
  • Oct 12, 2014 7:15pm Oct 12, 2014 7:15pm
Currency may experience modest dip in light of as yet unverified Russian troop pullback ... . http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/12/world/...html?hpt=wo_c2
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #100
  • Oct 13, 2014 9:01am Oct 13, 2014 9:01am
49.50 too strong too strong but why ?!
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