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USD/RUB

  • #61
  • Sep 16, 2014 12:57pm Sep 16, 2014 12:57pm
Quoting KarlHakan
This pair is really shooting up now. Something extremely serious must have happened? Is the "ceasefire" over? Current price: 38.80496
There is demand for USD from Russian corporations under sanctions - they buy dollars to make a total $77bln by the end of the year in payments to their bond holders. After being temporarily cut off from western credit markets they get currency via direct purchases. Additionally, it's a nice opportunity for those of them with money to purchase their own cheap bonds before maturity - while their value is artificially lower.

Monthly R2.5 for Septewmber is at 39.02 - should cap the up-move, in my opinion. If not, R3 at 39.82 is the limit
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #62
  • Sep 16, 2014 2:23pm Sep 16, 2014 2:23pm
Quoting Firstboss
{quote} There is demand for USD from Russian corporations under sanctions - they buy dollars to make a total $77bln by the end of the year in payments to their bond holders. After being temporarily cut off from western credit markets they get currency via direct purchases. Additionally, it's a nice opportunity for those of them with money to purchase their own cheap bonds before maturity - while their value is artificially lower. Monthly R2.5 for Septewmber is at 39.02 - should cap the up-move, in my opinion. If not, R3 at 39.82 is the limit
Mmm. My monthly Classic R3 shows R3 at 40.00 even for the bid price/40.31 for the ask.

Looks like 39.00 was pretty much on the mark for today's price action ... (high 38.96 for the bid).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #63
  • Sep 16, 2014 3:49pm Sep 16, 2014 3:49pm
finally some bear action
  • #64
  • Sep 16, 2014 4:12pm Sep 16, 2014 4:12pm
Quoting openyoureyes
finally some bear action
Wish I had entered at the top of that ... . Would have been productive ... . Likely to be other opportunities, however.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #65
  • Sep 16, 2014 5:11pm Sep 16, 2014 5:11pm
That bear retracement happened due to the two sudden central bank announcements:

Chinese CB pledged $80bln liquidity for the top 5 banks

Russian CB introduced 1-day dollar and euro swaps available from now on for the Russian banking system.
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #66
  • Sep 16, 2014 5:28pm Sep 16, 2014 5:28pm
Quoting Firstboss
That bear retracement happened due to the two sudden central bank announcements: Chinese CB pledged $80bln liquidity for the top 5 banks Russian CB introduced 1-day dollar and euro swaps available from now on for the Russian banking system.
Saw the CBOC announcement, but somehow missed the 1-day swap story ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #67
  • Sep 16, 2014 5:44pm Sep 16, 2014 5:44pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} The above-referenced article mentions that the CBR is willing to tolerate a "trading band against the mixed dollar/euro basket to 35.40 - 44.40" without intervention. Apparently, the "basket consist of 45 eurocents and 55 cents ... ." http://www.cbr.ru/eng/DKP/?PrtId=e-r_policy The ask on the EUR/RUB is currently at 49; the USD/RUB at 37.33, so if my calculations are correct, the dollar/euro basket value is currently at (.45)(49) + (.55)(37.33) = 42.58. In other words, there are a couple of rubles to go in the basket before an intervention...
Current basket value: 43.8144 per RCB web site. http://www.cbr.ru/eng/

To me, quite close to an intervention by the RCB ... .

The EUR/RUB is currently at 50.0582, the USD/RUB at 38.7058. Assuming for the sake of simplicity that the EUR/RUB remained the same (unlikely), we can approximate the USD/RUB price at which the RCB would arguably intervene: [44.40-(.45)(50.0582)]/.55=39.77.

We are basically less than a ruble from here to an intervention, which is quite close ... . Might be worth a measured risk short entry order to sell if price strikes the monthly Classic R3, which is around 40 even ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #68
  • Sep 16, 2014 5:48pm Sep 16, 2014 5:48pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bank of Russia Sad Face.jpg Size: 7 KB

Is it just me or does my bookmark look like there is a "Sad Face" emoticon next to the Bank of Russia?
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #69
  • Sep 16, 2014 8:10pm Sep 16, 2014 8:10pm
the next 72 hours is very critical,
I won't be trading the news for USD/RUB because the spread would be huge...

I also don't expect a more hawkish stance from FED / or a I-rate hike, so I'm holding to my shorts.

we ended the day with a a bearish pin candle on D1 chart,
let's see how this one plays
  • #70
  • Edited 8:41pm Sep 16, 2014 8:23pm | Edited 8:41pm
I forgot to attach the chart:
D1 - bearish pin candle (not the current candle)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2014-09-17 at 4.03.33 AM.png Size: 131 KB
  • #71
  • Sep 24, 2014 1:17am Sep 24, 2014 1:17am
I will be there when usd/rub goes down,
hope I won't be sleeping

carrying 0.01 lot without SL cost me %5 of a $1k account,
and I have about 3 more ready-to-roll accounts waiting...

just a warning for the usd/rub newcomers,
long rub won't give you anything but losses if you aren't patient, and if you don't want to wait for a perfect entry.

this is not your typical enter&forget trade YET
  • #72
  • Sep 24, 2014 4:38pm Sep 24, 2014 4:38pm
Quoting openyoureyes
I will be there when usd/rub goes down, hope I won't be sleeping carrying 0.01 lot without SL cost me %5 of a $1k account, and I have about 3 more ready-to-roll accounts waiting... just a warning for the usd/rub newcomers, long rub won't give you anything but losses if you aren't patient, and if you don't want to wait for a perfect entry. this is not your typical enter&forget trade YET
Right. Long is the wrong way to go. Wait for short set-ups and hold for as long as possible due to positive swap (without going overboard of course).

Right now, 38.81-ish tested twice, so that might be a good short entry (SL at 39.4 maybe?) with a TP of 38.35-ish (short-term) and 36.75 for a longer-term target ... .

That being said, appears to have a habit of falling into a range and then breaking out, so I would go with small lot entries (keeping in mind the strange pip cost of course).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #73
  • Sep 25, 2014 5:43pm Sep 25, 2014 5:43pm
In a new short-term range here ... :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD:RUB ST Range.jpg Size: 189 KB
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #74
  • Sep 26, 2014 3:10am Sep 26, 2014 3:10am
USDRUB no want going down !! 👿
  • #75
  • Sep 26, 2014 3:47am Sep 26, 2014 3:47am
Talk to Ck87. He is an ultra, ultra, ultra USD/RUB bear.

I personally know nothing about the pair, except what the chart tells me.

If it were up to me though, I would be a bull, not a bear.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #76
  • Sep 26, 2014 5:57am Sep 26, 2014 5:57am
Quoting smash1820
Talk to Ck87. He is an ultra, ultra, ultra USD/RUB bear. I personally know nothing about the pair, except what the chart tells me. If it were up to me though, I would be a bull, not a bear.
The pair is in his maximum, the RUB has a really interesting interest of the 6% and it's undervalued due to the geopolitical war in Ukraine... The pair should be going down, soon or later, I hope to see it today.
  • #77
  • Sep 26, 2014 9:07am Sep 26, 2014 9:07am
Add short 39.10 wait & see
  • #78
  • Sep 28, 2014 11:42pm Sep 28, 2014 11:42pm
GTC entry order to short at 39.128 with a target of 37.55 with a lot size of .25 x equity.

The object will be to hold on a long-term basis to take advantage of the positive swap and to add to the position at favorable price extremes.

And we'll see how that goes .... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #79
  • Sep 28, 2014 11:48pm Sep 28, 2014 11:48pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
GTC entry order to short at 39.128 with a target of 37.55 with a lot size of .25 x equity. The object will be to hold on a long-term basis to take advantage of the positive swap and to add to the position at favorable price extremes. And we'll see how that goes .... .
mine is at 40.000, no adjustments to it until early tomorrow morning my time, with NY. I have had the conviction that this 'should' go down for quite a while... I hope more people write about this pair.
  • #80
  • Sep 29, 2014 11:25pm Sep 29, 2014 11:25pm
Here's my entry (executed at 39.127), but I've revised the target price to the area of consolidation around 38.5:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD:RUB Short TP.jpg Size: 194 KB


I have to remember to switch to the ask to set the target price ... . There's quite a difference between the ZigZags that show on the lower time frames when you switch from the "Bid" chart to the "Ask" chart due to the spread ... .

The current Bid/Ask is 39.330/39.541.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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