Let's Trade Options | Page 253 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

BELLA SYSTEM. Let's try it, let's improve it! 118 replies

Let's Trade The News V 0.4 ! 479 replies

Any Options, Bull Options & Option Bit 39 replies

Let's Trade The News! 46 replies

Let a trade develop? 17 replies

Attachments: Let's Trade Options
Exit Attachments

Let's Trade Options

  • #5,041
  • Sep 29, 2014 12:05pm Sep 29, 2014 12:05pm
Thinking about doing a UVXY bear call spread - maybe 10/3 $32/$30 for $0.39 credit. Bull market will resume - you can't kill the BoogeyMan.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,042
  • Sep 29, 2014 12:37pm Sep 29, 2014 12:37pm
Quoting The Fool
Thinking about doing a UVXY bear call spread - maybe 10/3 $32/$30 for $0.39 credit. Bull market will resume - you can't kill the BoogeyMan.
lol, took a coffee break, came back & credit down to $0.28...gotta be nimble.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,043
  • Sep 29, 2014 1:05pm Sep 29, 2014 1:05pm
Quoting StrayDog
For today I am thinking of a credit play for WAG earnings, which are tomorrow BMO. It would be Iron Condor or some credit spread. Details later.
Well... WAG is a big company, have weekly options with $0.50 strikes, but OI and overall options volume are not that big...
WAG is trading at $59.50 now. Would do a 55/57 + 62/64 Oct3 Iron Condor. I am having a hard time getting a fill, since there is nobody at midpoint... I would not do a IC with $2 wide strikes for less than $0.55 - $0.60 for ER's play. EM is small, IV just over 50%... Prolly will just skip it, if I do not get a fill (standing at $0.58 and I will not budge) would not chase it.

Also was thinking about SPY bear call spread - 202/205 Nov monthlies... could be filled at $0.95 credit... That could be a bet of no higher highs for SPY in next few weeks. Just thinking out loud, while reading a book...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,044
  • Sep 29, 2014 1:28pm Sep 29, 2014 1:28pm
Quoting The Fool
I am starting a new feature here on the Let's Trade Options thread. It's called "Trade of the Week". The "Trade of the Week" will be an informal contest. There are no rules and no prizes. Anybody can play but none are obligated to. The idea of "Trade of the Week" is to present your best idea for a trade each week. As time goes on and the results of the trade become apparent, anybody can say they have the best trade of the week, or that someone else has it. The best trade of the week should be the one that produces the best return. Style points may...
Cool idea TF - A great way to learn and make money in the process. I thought you might have suggested fading the VIX??? I don't have the 'kahunas' for fading this given all the geopolitical stuff coupled with the nervousness of the Feds timing on the IR hike.

I currently have one position open SOLD ES mini 1830 Oct31 PUT. Also got a pending order to SELL ES mini 1760 Oct31 PUT....
  • #5,045
  • Sep 29, 2014 1:30pm Sep 29, 2014 1:30pm
UVXY still running up, bear call spread ixnay. Will be an opp for one there, though, just don't want to get my dck ripped off. UVXY not been to $30.00 since the early Aug index dump, when it spiked to $38. I will lay off and see what tomorrow holds.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,046
  • Sep 29, 2014 1:34pm Sep 29, 2014 1:34pm
Quoting njr
{quote} Cool idea TF - A great way to learn and make money in the process. I thought you might have suggested fading the VIX??? I don't have the 'kahunas' for fading this given all the geopolitical stuff coupled with the nervousness of the Feds timing on the IR hike. I currently have one position open SOLD ES mini 1830 Oct31 PUT. Also got a pending order to SELL ES mini 1760 Oct31 PUT....
orale, njr - quieres decir "cojones" - "kahuna" is Hawaiian for "wizard, boss, etc"

...yeah, mine running small today, too..
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,047
  • Sep 29, 2014 1:38pm Sep 29, 2014 1:38pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} orale, njr - quieres decir "cojones" - "kahuna" is Hawaiian for "wizard, boss, etc"
Oppps...yup, that's what I meant.....Never knew that it was spelled that way
  • #5,048
  • Sep 29, 2014 1:45pm Sep 29, 2014 1:45pm
short term VIX ramp-up gotta be on the Hong Kong news, maybe that will blow over fast as it arose - maybe not. I have no clue.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,049
  • Sep 29, 2014 2:04pm Sep 29, 2014 2:04pm
Quoting The Fool
short term VIX ramp-up gotta be on the Hong Kong news, maybe that will blow over fast as it arose - maybe not. I have no clue.
I got up my nerve, saw UVXY sliding a bit, loaded the 10/3 $35/$32 call spread again for $0.40, waited a second, reached into my desk and got a piece of gum, looked again & UVXY had slid $0.30, credit down to $0.32, oh well.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,050
  • Edited 8:44pm Sep 29, 2014 2:09pm | Edited 8:44pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote}Also was thinking about SPY bear call spread - 202/205 Nov monthlies... could be filled at $0.95 credit... That could be a bet of no higher highs for SPY in next few weeks. Just thinking out loud, while reading a book...
yes. I still think bear call spreads will play well in Oct-Nov. But I'd rather sell into strength on those. And I think we'll get that chance. I will not be surprised to see the S&P make another break of 2,000 b4 the elections.

I still do not know what I will do about EWZ.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,051
  • Sep 29, 2014 2:22pm Sep 29, 2014 2:22pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I got up my nerve, saw UVXY sliding a bit, loaded the 10/3 $35/$32 call spread again for $0.40, waited a second, reached into my desk and got a piece of gum, looked again & UVXY had slid $0.30, credit down to $0.32, oh well.....
blew it. UVXY already sliding into the close, will probably be down 10% on tomorrow's open. So the YHOO 10/3 bull put spread all I got today.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,052
  • Sep 29, 2014 2:22pm Sep 29, 2014 2:22pm
Must be time for the 3:30pm ramp up
  • #5,053
  • Edited 9:09pm Sep 29, 2014 8:41pm | Edited 9:09pm
US natgas moving up, seasonality effect - but also one sees more and more press about US LNG liquefaction facilities being built, coming online just around the bend, and when the export pipelines are open we should see US natgas prices normalize with those current in the global marketplace. That sound right?

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/30/bu...oofinance&_r=0

Even so, I have never made much trying to trade it, and the spreads on UNG blow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-09-29_ung.png Size: 313 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,054
  • Sep 29, 2014 9:02pm Sep 29, 2014 9:02pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} blew it. UVXY already sliding into the close, will probably be down 10% on tomorrow's open. So the YHOO 10/3 bull put spread all I got today.
UVXY actually rose AH. The spike will melt, just need to be on time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-09-29_UVXY.png Size: 357 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,055
  • Sep 29, 2014 9:21pm Sep 29, 2014 9:21pm
Quoting The Fool
US natgas moving up, seasonality effect - but also one sees more and more press about US LNG liquefaction facilities being built, coming online just around the bend, and when the export pipelines are open we should see US natgas prices normalize with those current in the global marketplace. That sound right?
If the U.S. becomes a LNG exporter in a big way, what will that mean for US natgas prices? (It's not a rhetorical question - I'd really like to know...)

www.ferc.gov/...gas/overview/ngas-ovr-lng-wld-pr-est.pdf

http://knoema.com/ncszerf/natural-ga...ata-and-charts

...we might see spikes to $10 at the Henry Hub if things get hyped, pushing UNG above $60....by 2016?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,056
  • Sep 29, 2014 10:52pm Sep 29, 2014 10:52pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/video/last-...124212772.html

the dump in high-yield bonds (junk) foretells a bounce in equities? I am leaning that way. Maybe NFP will break it either way...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,057
  • Sep 30, 2014 12:36am Sep 30, 2014 12:36am
http://www.whatinvestment.co.uk/fina...equities.thtml


"....But that scenario is now priced in. I don’t think there will be another rally if the more pro-business candidate wins, but neither do I think that another election outcome could lead to the market tanking."

....in other words, you don't know wtf to expect. Well, welcome to the club.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,058
  • Sep 30, 2014 1:21am Sep 30, 2014 1:21am
will be watching EWZ at the open, might like to see a little bounce. May do a bear call spread for Friday's expiry, as shown. I expect EWZ will consolidate before the elections.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-09-29_ewz.png Size: 338 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,059
  • Sep 30, 2014 3:55am Sep 30, 2014 3:55am
looking to take a risky long puts on AAPL today or tomorrow. APPL closed yeaterday at 100.11 and pre market today is trading higher around 100.38, I like it to trade over 101 then I'm looking to buy or long $100 puts for Fridays expiration. I have no idea on price of puts yet until I see the price over 101 for AAPL

Apple Inc. (AAPL)
-NasdaqGS
100.11 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.64(0.64%) 29 Sep 21:15
|Pre-Market : 100.38 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.27 (0.27%) 09:35 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #5,060
  • Sep 30, 2014 9:15am Sep 30, 2014 9:15am
Quoting Cecil Gee
looking to take a risky long puts on AAPL today or tomorrow. APPL closed yeaterday at 100.11 and pre market today is trading higher around 100.38, I like it to trade over 101 then I'm looking to buy or long $100 puts for Fridays expiration. I have no idea on price of puts yet until I see the price over 101 for AAPL Apple Inc. (AAPL) -NasdaqGS 100.11 {image} 0.64(0.64%) 29 Sep 21:15 |Pre-Market : 100.38 {image} 0.27 (0.27%) 09:35 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
end of the month, end of Q3, maybe a good time to see a bit of a reversal in the equity selling
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
5 traders viewing now