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Let's Trade Options

  • #5,021
  • Sep 27, 2014 2:06pm Sep 27, 2014 2:06pm
Jan 2017 options came out this month. SDRL dividend 11%.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,022
  • Edited 2:32pm Sep 27, 2014 2:22pm | Edited 2:32pm
EWZ shorts are looking at the effect of rising rates....May/Jun 2013 selloff was $55-$42

http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmar...rrons&ru=yahoo
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,023
  • Sep 27, 2014 3:07pm Sep 27, 2014 3:07pm
Quoting The Fool
EWZ shorts are looking at the effect of rising rates....May/Jun 2013 selloff was $55-$42 http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmar...rrons&ru=yahoo {image}
now, short bias is getting cooked in - setting up for a short squeeze on a Dilma defeat
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,024
  • Sep 27, 2014 9:46pm Sep 27, 2014 9:46pm
I am starting a new feature here on the Let's Trade Options thread. It's called "Trade of the Week". The "Trade of the Week" will be an informal contest. There are no rules and no prizes. Anybody can play but none are obligated to. The idea of "Trade of the Week" is to present your best idea for a trade each week. As time goes on and the results of the trade become apparent, anybody can say they have the best trade of the week, or that someone else has it. The best trade of the week should be the one that produces the best return. Style points may apply. It doesn't have to be a trade that gets opened/closed within one week - it can be any trade. The purpose of the Trade of the Week, above all, is to help each other here make money. Other aspects may be made up as we go along.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,025
  • Sep 27, 2014 10:00pm Sep 27, 2014 10:00pm
Well, I usually spend parts of the weekend reading and cogitating about what the market is liable to do. Sometimes I get some ideas, sometimes not. Atm, nothing is clear to me. I do have an idea for a trade, - not a Trade of the Week, though. This is a trade some of us have been doing for the last few weeks: the old YHOO bull put spread. YHOO is getting underpinned well with interest about it being bought out. Unless we get some broad and persistent riskoff market selldown action in the coming week, YHOO is likely to go up or sideways. I'll have to check this at the Monday open, YHOO bounced AH on Friday....I am looking for about $0.40 min credit for this trade, with a short/long value ratio of something like 6:1 or better.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,026
  • Sep 28, 2014 2:12am Sep 28, 2014 2:12am
http://online.wsj.com/articles/bank-...2?mod=yahoo_hs
" By 2017, earnings per share could hit $2, versus an estimated 75 cents this year. Shareholders by then will have seen a string of steady increases in earnings and dividends, with fewer and smaller legal surprises.

They could be willing to pay $25 a share by that point, or 12.5 times earnings, versus a recent $17. Add a buck per share in cumulative dividends and BofA stock could return 50% over the next three years, and perhaps sooner. "

I have been watching BAC, noting it seems to be working itself out (finally) of a long string of costly legal problems, and now we're moving (supposedly) into a period of rate normalization, wherein the banks should do better.

The Jan '16 $25 calls are just $0.25, the '17 options should be available soon (?).

BAC fell from $54 to <$4, yikes...sure wish I'd been sitting on a pile of long-dated puts back then....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,027
  • Sep 28, 2014 3:08am Sep 28, 2014 3:08am
10/18 PCLN ic, meh, prolly easier money elsewhere...
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  • #5,028
  • Sep 28, 2014 9:33am Sep 28, 2014 9:33am
looking out to the earnings season, cranking up again in a couple weeks. Nothing in the coming week, but week of Oct. 6 there is:

YUM 10/7; COST 10/8; and things really get kicked off in the week of 10/13 with the banks, C, WFC, WFC and techs INTC, SNDK, etc
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,029
  • Sep 28, 2014 10:08am Sep 28, 2014 10:08am
Quoting The Fool
http://online.wsj.com/articles/bank-...2?mod=yahoo_hs " By 2017, earnings per share could hit $2, versus an estimated 75 cents this year. Shareholders by then will have seen a string of steady increases in earnings and dividends, with fewer and smaller legal surprises. They could be willing to pay $25 a share by that point, or 12.5 times earnings, versus a recent $17. Add a buck per share in cumulative dividends and BofA stock could return 50% over the next three years, and perhaps sooner. " I have...
that bank of america charts looks as though it has a inverted h/s upside, I wonder if warren buffett still has the $5 billion his firm put in when the shares were around $4
  • #5,030
  • Sep 28, 2014 10:10am Sep 28, 2014 10:10am
Quoting The Fool
I am starting a new feature here on the Let's Trade Options thread. It's called "Trade of the Week". The "Trade of the Week" will be an informal contest. There are no rules and no prizes. Anybody can play but none are obligated to. The idea of "Trade of the Week" is to present your best idea for a trade each week. As time goes on and the results of the trade become apparent, anybody can say they have the best trade of the week, or that someone else has it. The best trade of the week should be the one that produces the best return. Style points may...
sounds interesting
  • #5,031
  • Sep 28, 2014 1:45pm Sep 28, 2014 1:45pm
solar hydrogen could supplant the fossil fuel energy paradigm, Not saying it will. Not saying the fuel cell stocks could regain their "next big thing" status. Check the charts - been there, done that. But if it's in the stars, the upside is huge.

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...side-look.aspx

"It's really a game changer for Toyota. We're going all-in on the technology and believe this is something that can grow as Prius has over the last 15 years from a single vehicle to a multivehicle line, and be a major product for Toyota in the coming decades. Prius now just this last year, we sold 350k hybrids just in the U.S. so we hope to see numbers like that at some point in the future just for fuel cell vehicles."
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,032
  • Sep 29, 2014 5:41am Sep 29, 2014 5:41am
Quoting The Fool
EWZ shorts are looking at the effect of rising rates....May/Jun 2013 selloff was $55-$42 image}
pre-market I see heavy moves down in Brazilian stocks. EWZ down 6-7%. looking for news, none seen
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,033
  • Sep 29, 2014 5:49am Sep 29, 2014 5:49am
Quoting The Fool
I am starting a new feature here on the Let's Trade Options thread. It's called "Trade of the Week". The "Trade of the Week" will be an informal contest. There are no rules and no prizes. Anybody can play but none are obligated to. The idea of "Trade of the Week" is to present your best idea for a trade each week. As time goes on and the results of the trade become apparent, anybody can say they have the best trade of the week, or that someone else has it. The best trade of the week should be the one that produces the best return. Style points may...
Love the idea. We should help each other. I already share almost every trade of mine, will boost ideas also. To bad that there are only 4 of us presently regular on your thread, TF.

Some news for AAPL
European Commission Tax Probe Could Cost Apple Billions

"Apple will be accused of prospering from illegal tax deals with the Irish government for more than two decades when Brussels this week unveils details of a probe that could leave the iPhone maker with a record fine of as much as several billions of euros."....
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,034
  • Sep 29, 2014 5:56am Sep 29, 2014 5:56am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} pre-market I see heavy moves down in Brazilian stocks. EWZ down 6-7%. looking for news, none seen
maybe this

Ibovespa Futures Tumble as Poll Shows Rousseff Extending Lead

usefull link
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/latin-america/
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,035
  • Sep 29, 2014 6:09am Sep 29, 2014 6:09am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} maybe this Ibovespa Futures Tumble as Poll Shows Rousseff Extending Lead usefull link http://www.bloomberg.com/news/latin-america/
thanks bud, yeah I figured as much. The only thing that has been floating the Bovespa is the prospect of a much-changed new government. Brazilian economy is actually in recession. EWZ could keep sliding - but also the short interest could build up a setup for massive short squeeze if it looks like maybe Dilma will get the boot after all. I might look for a call debit spread this week, or a bear call spread for credit...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,036
  • Sep 29, 2014 6:38am Sep 29, 2014 6:38am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Good luck Cecil! I had some doubts about my TSLA position I made yesterday, which is too close to the price, it was Oct3 250/255 bear call spread I sold for $2.00 credit, so I have bought it now for $1.80...
Pff... chicken... That was position from Thursday, closed on Friday for minimal profit.... now it would be a 50% winner.

For today I am thinking of a credit play for WAG earnings, which are tomorrow BMO. It would be Iron Condor or some credit spread. Details later.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,037
  • Sep 29, 2014 6:53am Sep 29, 2014 6:53am
Would love to see NQ100 bellow 4000. It is sitting on 50 daily again.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,038
  • Sep 29, 2014 7:02am Sep 29, 2014 7:02am
Quoting The Fool
I do have an idea for a trade, - not a Trade of the Week, though. This is a trade some of us have been doing for the last few weeks: the old YHOO bull put spread. YHOO is getting underpinned well with interest about it being bought out. Unless we get some broad and persistent riskoff market selldown action in the coming week, YHOO is likely to go up or sideways. I'll have to check this at the Monday open, YHOO bounced AH on Friday....I am looking for about $0.40 min credit for this trade, with a short/long value ratio of something like 6:1 or better....
I did this trade - YHOO 10/18 $35.5/$38.5 bull put spread for $0.40 credit, with YHOO trading at about $40.25. I see YHOO well supported...but BABA slipping, which is worrisome....but we'll see...

bbl..
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,039
  • Sep 29, 2014 7:12am Sep 29, 2014 7:12am
AMZN earnings 10/23... looking bearish, price bellow 50, which is bellow 200... Previous few times it fell hard on ER's.

Thinking about bearish play with Oct monthlies, so that ER's itself would be another opp. Thinking only is timing correct, since IV will prolly go up.

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Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,040
  • Sep 29, 2014 7:26am Sep 29, 2014 7:26am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I did this trade - YHOO 10/18 $35.5/$38.5 bull put spread for $0.40 credit, with YHOO trading at about $40.25. I see YHOO well supported...but BABA slipping, which is worrisome....but we'll see... bbl..
Good job TF... YHOO over $41... I spend too much time bitching about my positions (all bear call spreads), since B-T-F-Dippers showed yet again. I looked at YHOO also, but Nov monthlies, but was too slow.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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