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The similarity system

  • #9,581
  • Sep 29, 2014 7:59am Sep 29, 2014 7:59am
Quoting kprsa
Hi all, just to say, I fully agree with vlady and LITEchild that there are many ways to trade transient zones. I was shocked the other day when leeshindig showed one way of using the RecurrenceStatistic indicator of which I did not think before, so there is a learning curve for most of us here. Transient zones are linked to essential properties of the Forex chart, they happen in strong trends and as fractals at the end of the price movements. They are cleared in the recurrent zones between the strong trend movements. As for the numbers, I have tried...
Thank you this helps a lot, i have read the thread but really didn't get all this from it. Will reread again with this summary printed out
  • #9,582
  • Sep 29, 2014 8:00am Sep 29, 2014 8:00am
Quoting tashkent
{quote}
Thank you. Before learning anything, people should master Patience & Confidence
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #9,583
  • Sep 29, 2014 8:07am Sep 29, 2014 8:07am
Quoting Ullen
{quote} Thank you. Before learning anything, people should master Patience & Confidence
No offence buddy, but sometimes one can be 'Patiently' and 'Confidently' doing the wrong thing!
I think the highest priority for any aspiring trader is to verify the existence and/or eficacy of any and all edges to be played in the market. THEN, and only then, can patience and confidence be aptly rewarded. I may be wrong though...
  • #9,584
  • Sep 29, 2014 8:12am Sep 29, 2014 8:12am
As LiteChild said, I trade them a little differently and it's probably not what Eurusdd intended but it's very safe and certainly profitable.

It's almost like 'reverse breakouts' in that I'll sell if price closes under a previous TZ top from above and vice versa from TZ bottoms. As soon as a previous TZ has been taken out in this way, you have the short term trend so you're never caught on the wrong side of a new massive move. My SL is the immediately higher TZ (or 20 pips if it's further away) and price will usually head to the next nearest TZ below.

When price approaches a TZ, it will usually bounce a bit to start with and then streak through, creating a new mid bar TZ as it goes - these are in effect what I am trading. If you analyse mid bar TZ's, it is very unusual for price to retrace above the mid bar since the newly formed TZ in the middle creates a barrier.

This morning for example I've been chomping pips happily. I had three small losses where it moved lower but I wasn't worried because I know I can usually get in at a better price and more than make them up. It's the least stressful trading I've ever done. 46 pips so far today.
  • #9,585
  • Sep 29, 2014 8:19am Sep 29, 2014 8:19am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} No offence buddy, but sometimes one can be 'Patiently' and 'Confidently' doing the wrong thing! I think the highest priority for any aspiring trader is to verify the existence and/or eficacy of any and all edges to be played in the market. THEN, and only then, can patience and confidence be aptly rewarded. I may be wrong though...
Thank you
  • #9,586
  • Sep 29, 2014 8:26am Sep 29, 2014 8:26am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} No offence buddy, but sometimes one can be 'Patiently' and 'Confidently' doing the wrong thing! I think the highest priority for any aspiring trader is to verify the existence and/or eficacy of any and all edges to be played in the market. THEN, and only then, can patience and confidence be aptly rewarded. I may be wrong though...
No offence taken. This is what makes the thread awesome

In my opinion one can't understand how to trade similarity before understanding Patience & Confidence. One will make wrong entries and exits, and won't benefit from the great concept layed out.

Don't follow price, let her come to you! (Thank you EURUSDD)
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #9,587
  • Sep 29, 2014 8:28am Sep 29, 2014 8:28am
Quoting hepsibah
As LiteChild said, I trade them a little differently and it's probably not what Eurusdd intended but it's very safe and certainly profitable. It's almost like 'reverse breakouts' in that I'll sell if price closes under a previous TZ top from above and vice versa from TZ bottoms. As soon as a previous TZ has been taken out in this way, you have the short term trend so you're never caught on the wrong side of a new massive move. My SL is the immediately higher TZ (or 20 pips if it's further away) and price will usually head to the next nearest TZ...
Hi hesibah when you say if price closes under a previous tz from above , I take it you mean a previous left side formed (partially formed )?
Regards Orid peter
  • #9,588
  • Sep 29, 2014 8:33am Sep 29, 2014 8:33am
Quoting orid
{quote}Hi hesibah when you say if price closes under a previous tz from above , I take it you mean a previous left side formed (partially formed )? Regards Orid peter
No Peter, they need to be completed TZ's. But I use a small h so that they they get taken out quite quickly if they are going to be taken out. I prefer to play in a recently known RZ than a potentially newly forming TZ.
  • #9,589
  • Sep 29, 2014 8:59am Sep 29, 2014 8:59am
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} No Peter, they need to be completed TZ's. But I use a small h so that they they get taken out quite quickly if they are going to be taken out. I prefer to play in a recently known RZ than a potentially newly forming TZ.
thanks hepsibah I always thought of a tz taken out to mean as resolved as in a forming one , its where I got mixed up .
Thanks for explanation havn't tried that way yet . sounds good
regards Orid peter
  • #9,590
  • Sep 29, 2014 11:12am Sep 29, 2014 11:12am
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} No Peter, they need to be completed TZ's. But I use a small h so that they they get taken out quite quickly if they are going to be taken out. I prefer to play in a recently known RZ than a potentially newly forming TZ.
Another great hint.
  • #9,591
  • Sep 29, 2014 11:46am Sep 29, 2014 11:46am
I was silent lurker of this thread on and off. It does confuse you in beginning if you don't concentrate the way it works. After meeting Madmoney, i took few trades with one mistake today. It really eye opener guys.

Thank you Eurusdd and Madmoney.
Be Greedy
Dices Return This Week: na
  • #9,592
  • Sep 29, 2014 12:44pm Sep 29, 2014 12:44pm
High everyone, and thanks for the work you have contributed to the thread. For those who are short term traders, here is an example chart from this morning. I know someone asked for charts the other day. I prefer swing trading. Still not finding the areas to trade without assistance from indicators. Maybe too many on the chart. I will keep trying, until I find that eureka moment when indicators are not needed.
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  • #9,593
  • Sep 29, 2014 3:47pm Sep 29, 2014 3:47pm
Hi there,

A very simple strategy for your consideration: Recurrence Statistic v3 applied to the H1 timeframe on EURUSD indicates that the probability of clearing a h=4 fractal zone if it has not been cleared within 4 hours after its inception is less than 20% within the next 12 hours (so, within 16 hours after the zone creation). That means that one can enter the trade at some good moment, place SL at the fractal and basically get some pips. Given the probabilities, as long as you are getting more than 5:1 RR on average, you should be fine. Add one more indicator of your choice (MA, MACD, volume, stoch ...) and use common sense to get you out of obviously wrong trades, occasionally check that the probabilities haven't changed, and that should be it.

Warning: I have not tested this in demo or live, and if you intend to, play with it in demo first. This comment is just an example to show how easy it is to create little reasonable strategies when basic probabilities are sorted out. It is really a powerful tool.

Cheers,
k
  • #9,594
  • Sep 29, 2014 10:40pm Sep 29, 2014 10:40pm
Quoting kprsa
Hi there, A very simple strategy for your consideration: Recurrence Statistic v3 applied to the H1 timeframe on EURUSD indicates that the probability of clearing a h=4 fractal zone if it has not been cleared within 4 hours after its inception is less than 20% within the next 12 hours (so, within 16 hours after the zone creation). That means that one can enter the trade at some good moment, place SL at the fractal and basically get some pips. Given the probabilities, as long as you are getting more than 5:1 RR on average, you should be fine. Add...
yes very close to me
  • #9,595
  • Sep 30, 2014 12:44am Sep 30, 2014 12:44am
too you more knowledgable people I mentioned this way back zone at 2750 which it reached
I didn't get any response , im still trying to work out the disim and similarity business now turned out I was right on the first one (lucky guess ?)
I mentioned the second one awhile ago at 2540 now could I possibly be on the right track will it go down to 2540 ??
Cmon you disim experts what do you think please?
regards Orid peter
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,596
  • Sep 30, 2014 1:42am Sep 30, 2014 1:42am
Geeze I missed a classic BBTZ (thanks vlady for sharing) because my cat ran over the freaking keyboard Anyway for those trying out this method you should train your eyes to spot the unevenness or if you are oblivious like me you can use Freefox's indicator and set a small H value so that a TZ get painted faster and you can see it sooner. The idea here is to spot unevenness.
I want more brain power!
  • #9,597
  • Sep 30, 2014 2:52am Sep 30, 2014 2:52am
Here's another little brain teaser.

Look back in history and find the centre bar of a completed TZ top/bottom (i.e. fractal). Count h*2 bars to the right and there will almost always be a new TZ at some point that is higher/lower than the high/low of that bar.

Sometimes the bar itself can be the centre bar of a new TZ so that isn't too useful BUT, if the bar cannot be a centre bar (i.e. there are less than h bars to the left) and price continues in the wrong direction, there is a good opportunity for a trade back to it.

The logic stacks up since you would expect some of the bars on the rhs of a TZ to be some of the lhs bar on a newly forming TZ in the opp direction.

It seems very reliable on a manual look back but it can fail. For instance there should have been a top TZ around 1.2830 (Eurusdd's price) that hasn't been returned to so you still need adequate SL's and I would recommend using your normal signals to tell you when to trade back - but it gives some useful levels.

Unfortunately, I don't have kprsa's superior brain power to calculate how often it fails.
  • #9,598
  • Sep 30, 2014 3:22am Sep 30, 2014 3:22am
very amazing technic, i still learning, and wondering how to trade with this system,
Magic Trader is statistic using similarity system

and very impressive with the result, 23 trade, 23 win, 0 loss

amazinggggg!!

thank you for sharing this system,
GOD bless you forever Mr. Eurusdd
  • #9,599
  • Sep 30, 2014 4:01am Sep 30, 2014 4:01am
It's gonna be one of those days, so I may just stay out of the market.

I meant to short but hit the bloody wrong button... and I completely wasn't aware of it until I was watching and wondering why it was going into the red.
Shite! Thankfully it was -4 before the drop. I am out for the time being.... 2 cups of coffee should do it.

Edit:
Just goes to show, no amount of principles or TZ indicators can ever account for stupidity. Make sure you trade when you're awake and thinking clearly and focused!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,600
  • Sep 30, 2014 4:18am Sep 30, 2014 4:18am
Quoting vlady1974
It's gonna be one of those days, so I may just stay out of the market. I meant to short but hit the bloody wrong button... and I completely wasn't aware of it until I was watching and wondering why it was going into the red. Shite! Thankfully it was -4 before the drop. I am out for the time being.... 2 cups of coffee should do it. Edit: Just goes to show, no amount of principles or TZ indicators can ever account for stupidity. Make sure you trade when you're awake and thinking clearly and focused!
sorry mate, this is why i decided to stop trading asia. i sleep off on trades mosttimes. asia is my nite time/

Between can you see the range range range breakout i was talking about? soon she will start creating that chanel again upwards
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