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NZD/USD

  • #7,881
  • Sep 29, 2014 8:16am Sep 29, 2014 8:16am
Unless the NZDUSD breaks through 0.7850, it isn't expected to register a reversal to 0.8000 levels. However, a break of 0.7750 can cause the pair to fall towards 0.7600.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH1.png Size: 34 KB
  • #7,882
  • Sep 29, 2014 8:19am Sep 29, 2014 8:19am
Quoting Corral
{quote} this little up cause of the eu/usd up, thats what i said before, nz gov used usd bullish momentum to drive the pair down, thats why i want see what happen with this pair if usd bullish become bearish..
Yes, will be interesting. The USD is responsible for at least the recent drive lower - which was exploited, as you say. And, by the sound (and look) of things, may be temporarily further exploited - in order to breach supports.
  • #7,883
  • Sep 29, 2014 8:22am Sep 29, 2014 8:22am
this pair will be entering my Shorting zone @ 0.7900...more than a 100 pips above, until then i look elsewhere for opportunities, unless a Shorting Signal is forthcoming before that we reach that zone.
  • #7,884
  • Sep 29, 2014 8:51am Sep 29, 2014 8:51am
Maybe the RBNZ talks about 0,67xx to close a lot of short positions in a safe down trend... But now what they will do with the lot of money they do? Let me guess... They can short again because the trend stills in the downside... Of course they can looping this cycle a limited times. Corral thanks for your answer, you are a trader with a lot of patience, makes me think about this mistake in my way of trading, two weeks ago i lost huge amount of money because im anxious and over trade. You Keep your long years? How can you do that? I mean of course you open the position and dont close it, but how can you deal with the presure of not closing a winner position? When i start in this business i thought the hard thing was to accept the lost and close a bad position but now im realizing that the hardest thing is to know when close a winner position.
  • #7,885
  • Sep 29, 2014 9:19am Sep 29, 2014 9:19am
Bear flag on the hourly.
  • #7,886
  • Sep 29, 2014 10:41am Sep 29, 2014 10:41am
Quoting sunshine
this pair will be entering my Shorting zone @ 0.7900...more than a 100 pips above, until then i look elsewhere for opportunities, unless a Shorting Signal is forthcoming before that we reach that zone.
Really? Wouldn't it become a reversal pin-bar if it reaches that level. If you short from there you would be in serious trouble. My take would be from 7800 with 7830 sl.
  • #7,887
  • Sep 29, 2014 2:20pm Sep 29, 2014 2:20pm
NZD/G10: This an index I created. NZD against the other G10 pairs. It s equally weighted.
Just heading on the trend line support. Perhaps time for NZD to consolidate.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZ10 Index 29092014.png Size: 98 KB
  • #7,888
  • Sep 29, 2014 7:03pm Sep 29, 2014 7:03pm
NZ : ANZ business confidence lower, NZD/USD gap down!
  • #7,889
  • Sep 29, 2014 7:35pm Sep 29, 2014 7:35pm
Please download the ANZ business outlook PDF file!
It wrote :
"
The economy has passed its peak; the latest GDP figures confirm a deceleration in momentum.
The New Zealand economy doesn’t have the same build-up in nasty imbalances we’ve seen in prior cycles.
"
  • #7,890
  • Sep 29, 2014 8:38pm Sep 29, 2014 8:38pm
NZD .7755

Another set of bad numbers for NZ which has been going on for a month now along with Fonterra forecasting weaker dairy prices.

The so called intervention talk was a political spin to distract from how poorly the NZ economy really is.

$500 million intervention is nothing in today's market. It probably relates to something else like a debt interest repayment but the spin was "lets call it intervention to get the currency lower".

So we sit here and im thinking a bounce back towards .7850 as the US dollar takes a well deserved breather across other currency pairs.

Still a US dollar bull but its time to cash in and wait.

Volatility is here for sometime to come so plenty of opportunities to make cash.

The old bull and the young bull story is very apt in this market right now.

Happy punting
  • #7,891
  • Sep 29, 2014 9:42pm Sep 29, 2014 9:42pm
Quoting tindalo
Maybe the RBNZ talks about 0,67xx to close a lot of short positions in a safe down trend... But now what they will do with the lot of money they do? Let me guess... They can short again because the trend stills in the downside... Of course they can looping this cycle a limited times. Corral thanks for your answer, you are a trader with a lot of patience, makes me think about this mistake in my way of trading, two weeks ago i lost huge amount of money because im anxious and over trade. You Keep your long years? How can you do that? I mean of course...
I let the trade run as long the interest rate keep as high position, do you know, you can get 200pips/per year with this 3.5% rate, so why not let it run? Let it go for 2-3 years.may i ask you? Why prime minister of nz gave this number .65xx and in the same time, a statement that rbnz have invented the currency ? Why They (gov) are so rush? Something fishy..
  • #7,892
  • Sep 29, 2014 10:32pm Sep 29, 2014 10:32pm
80 ?
  • #7,893
  • Sep 30, 2014 12:58am Sep 30, 2014 12:58am
Quoting sunshine
this pair will be entering my Shorting zone @ 0.7900...more than a 100 pips above, until then i look elsewhere for opportunities, unless a Shorting Signal is forthcoming before that we reach that zone.

Here is a visual of what i said yesterday, basically what is implied here is that i will not entertain any Longs until my Sell zone is confirmed. Price action will either confirm shorts when it reach that area OR invalidate my short bias, in which case i will trade the other way. {i also posted the same chart in my journal}

Attached Image
  • #7,894
  • Sep 30, 2014 1:12am Sep 30, 2014 1:12am
Quoting munna.dakait
{quote} Really? Wouldn't it become a reversal pin-bar if it reaches that level. If you short from there you would be in serious trouble. My take would be from 7800 with 7830 sl.
Hi munna,

Question to you...
...How do u know it will become a reversal pin-bar ?
...and, why will i be in serious trouble ?

Let me explain please;
...to reach that level i'm anticipating several up days, not a one day, obviously...or maybe its not obvious.
...secondly...most importantly...you do see that the trend is DOWN ?
...i will change my bearish bias on this pair when its price action invalidates it.
  • #7,895
  • Sep 30, 2014 2:04am Sep 30, 2014 2:04am
NZDUSD seems incapable of breaking the descending trend line being part of symmetrical triangle. 0.7760 being the possible target for fresh short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDM30.png Size: 34 KB
  • #7,896
  • Sep 30, 2014 2:04am Sep 30, 2014 2:04am
Quoting Compulsive
80 ?
Nowhere at the moment (well, except 'contrary'). imo.
  • #7,897
  • Sep 30, 2014 3:43am Sep 30, 2014 3:43am
Plan on this pair. I am bearish til 65 cents. Wait for good entry and baby sit til I can put stop to break even and hope that I can catch a good ride? Or just take what I can get and re-enter?
  • #7,898
  • Sep 30, 2014 10:53am Sep 30, 2014 10:53am
entered 1st probe short wen price entered my [adjusted] Sell zone. see 15min chart below, by the way ... this is not a scalping entry, if it sticks we will let it run, the 15min timeframe is used to get a closer look at price action {PA} wen it enters my sell zones
The blue area on the chart indicates to me that Shorting Selling is permitted in this area.

...could i be too early with my short ?
....definitely.

...so why enter ?
...does anyone here know what price will do next ?
...i don't.

[attach]1519339[/attach]
Attached Image
  • #7,899
  • Sep 30, 2014 6:32pm Sep 30, 2014 6:32pm
Hey guys just checking in.

Quoting Fx_Anil
NZDUSD seems incapable of breaking the descending trend line being part of symmetrical triangle. 0.7760 being the possible target for fresh short. {image}
Nice chart again Anil...

Quoting Kenjlau
Plan on this pair. I am bearish til 65 cents.
But this is the best statement of all... Applause​ApplauseApplauseApplause
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #7,900
  • Edited Oct 1, 2014 4:58am Sep 30, 2014 7:47pm | Edited Oct 1, 2014 4:58am
today Oct. 1st is NZ dairy trade day
http://www.globaldairytrade.info/
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