Disliked{quote} Out of curiosity, let me ask, which amoong TZ1, TZ2 and TZ3 was the determining factor in taking that trade. Which candle was the 'gamechanger' or if you like 'confirmation' or 'trigger'? {image}Ignored
- #9,562
- Sep 29, 2014 6:44am Sep 29, 2014 6:44am
- Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Member of the 5% club | 1,259 Posts
{quote} I'm sure there are more ways to skin a cat. It was the obvious one when I looked at itOn a good day, I might have just shorted that top of that last swing.... on a bad day, I may have shorted on the break of TZ2
{quote} Hi Tradefinder and hannele please ask kpsra I'm sure he would be only too happy to explain. ( my questions to him were very basic) and his answers may not be that helpful if you are after a detailed explanation. maybe we could persuade him for a PDF My take ::It gives you probability statistics of where price is likely to return to based on the settings you put in (h bars left and right) same as transient ind but more detailed , still learning it my self . Regards Orid
cheers
hannele
- #9,566
- Sep 29, 2014 6:50am Sep 29, 2014 6:50am
- Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Member of the 5% club | 1,259 Posts
{quote} TZ1 direction TZ3 confirmation or abc if you like since trend might be nearly exhausted....
That's why I'm trading AUDUSD now instead of EURUSD! That's another clue for you.
{quote} Out of curiosity, let me ask, which amoong TZ1, TZ2 and TZ3 was the determining factor in taking that trade. Which candle was the 'gamechanger' or if you like 'confirmation' or 'trigger'? {image}
Regarding the complicating bit, i am trying to understand kprsa indi numbers as quite a few here have said how useful they are. Once i understand them i too may find it more complicated and revert to the transient zones only. At the minute still learning by aquiring info and trying to work things through into something tradeable
Many thanks for your answers they are each a nugget towards the gold mine we all seek
{quote} Insightful hannele. The probability that the trend is not exhausted is one major edge I keep on my side! That one I'm not sharing just yet.
but when you are good and ready, thou in the meanwhile please give some clues
cheers
hannele
- #9,571
- Sep 29, 2014 7:07am Sep 29, 2014 7:07am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Left Leg In, Right Leg Out! | 5,792 Posts
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
- #9,573
- Sep 29, 2014 7:41am Sep 29, 2014 7:41am
- Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Member of the 5% club | 1,259 Posts
{quote} What made me think it might be coming to the end is daily view (attached). When is 'just yet'... waiting waiting
- #9,575
- Edited 8:38am Sep 29, 2014 7:46am | Edited 8:38am
- Joined Feb 2014 | Status: ember | 1,268 Posts
Hi all,
just to say, I fully agree with vlady and LITEchild that there are many ways to trade transient zones. I was shocked the other day when leeshindig showed one way of using the RecurrenceStatistic indicator of which I did not think before, so there is a learning curve for most of us here. Transient zones are linked to essential properties of the Forex chart, they happen in strong trends and as fractals at the end of the price movements. They are cleared in the recurrent zones between the strong trend movements.
As for the numbers, I have tried to explain it several times here and you would be well advised to read the thread at least since Eurusdd introduced them and it would be useful to read the previous comments when I have tried to explain this.
I call fractal bars those bars which have a transient zone at the end (because they correspond to Bill Williams fractals). I call transient bars those that have a transient zone in the middle. All together I call them problem bars. Typically (see posts by hepsibah for examples of opposite strategies) you will want to specify the h and h_right to have a high clearing probability, that means that in the course of the next h_right bars the price will pass through the zone. This is called the full resolving of the problem bar, and it is calculated for fractal type and transient type of bars separately.
The next thingy is what happens if the bar is not cleared. Typically the transient zone is very narrow in price. This price width of the unresolved transient zone is called k. The recurrence statistic calculates the mean width <k> for your selected h and h_right and as well calculates the probability that the price in the future will come down to <k>, 2<k> and 3<k> away from clearing your created zone not including your spread. This can be used for trading as well, since you can set, for example a 99+% probability goal of reaching within, say 3<k>=12 pips away from clearing the zone at H4 timeframe, instead of the, say, 85% probability of fully clearing it. These stats are again calculated for both end-of-the-candle (fractal) zones and mid-candle (transient) zones.
I hope the calculated quantities are clearer now.
Cheers,
k
just to say, I fully agree with vlady and LITEchild that there are many ways to trade transient zones. I was shocked the other day when leeshindig showed one way of using the RecurrenceStatistic indicator of which I did not think before, so there is a learning curve for most of us here. Transient zones are linked to essential properties of the Forex chart, they happen in strong trends and as fractals at the end of the price movements. They are cleared in the recurrent zones between the strong trend movements.
As for the numbers, I have tried to explain it several times here and you would be well advised to read the thread at least since Eurusdd introduced them and it would be useful to read the previous comments when I have tried to explain this
.I call fractal bars those bars which have a transient zone at the end (because they correspond to Bill Williams fractals). I call transient bars those that have a transient zone in the middle. All together I call them problem bars. Typically (see posts by hepsibah for examples of opposite strategies) you will want to specify the h and h_right to have a high clearing probability, that means that in the course of the next h_right bars the price will pass through the zone. This is called the full resolving of the problem bar, and it is calculated for fractal type and transient type of bars separately.
The next thingy is what happens if the bar is not cleared. Typically the transient zone is very narrow in price. This price width of the unresolved transient zone is called k. The recurrence statistic calculates the mean width <k> for your selected h and h_right and as well calculates the probability that the price in the future will come down to <k>, 2<k> and 3<k> away from clearing your created zone not including your spread. This can be used for trading as well, since you can set, for example a 99+% probability goal of reaching within, say 3<k>=12 pips away from clearing the zone at H4 timeframe, instead of the, say, 85% probability of fully clearing it. These stats are again calculated for both end-of-the-candle (fractal) zones and mid-candle (transient) zones.
I hope the calculated quantities are clearer now.
Cheers,
k
- #9,577
- Sep 29, 2014 7:47am Sep 29, 2014 7:47am
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
Nice pips out there today! Trade your plan and trust it. Don't ever fear that your decision is wrong. If you got it right, it won't be! Patience & Confidence
As Above, So Below
- #9,578
- Sep 29, 2014 7:49am Sep 29, 2014 7:49am
- | Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,356 Posts
{quote} Hi RobertK, I think in order to answer this, one needs to get back to the warm/fuzzy questions of personal preference. It's unavoidable. What if there was an optimum h value for the 1M chart but that required you to be fixated to the screen... would you really want that? In addition, how do you like to set your risk parameters? Wide or Tight? Scalper or Swing? These affect your perspective when you view or experiment with viewing a variety of h values on different timeframes. The direct result is pretty simple really.... LOW H = MORE TZ...
I indeed think one shouldnt curve-fit / search for an optimal. Just go with one setting and instead add some own variables into the mix.@Orid. Ok Orid
