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The similarity system

  • #9,541
  • Sep 29, 2014 4:08am Sep 29, 2014 4:08am
Quoting handy148
Jeez doesn't anyone read threads anymore.
what a shame
  • #9,542
  • Edited 4:57am Sep 29, 2014 4:40am | Edited 4:57am
Quoting orid
{quote} Hi Cfd I think you maybe concentrating too much on the system some times and you cant see the wood for the trees ( im guilty also) What I do, and it really pays for me is this , forget the system and just put up a plain chart,clear your head (not much to clear in my case lol) and see what is going on , like yester day was pretty easy to trade , what im trying to say is this system is great the way I trade but some times you can get carried away with looking for signals without seeing what is obviously happening (brain overload) hope...

Hi

Is it possible to share kprsa's pm explanation of his indi, I am struggling to see the relationship of the statistics to the charts. If you want to pm that is fine and I can ask kpsra if you feel unsure of passing on his work directly
  • #9,543
  • Sep 29, 2014 4:46am Sep 29, 2014 4:46am
Quoting TradeFinder
{quote} Hi Is it possible to share kprs's pm explanation of his indi, I am struggling to see the relationship of the statistics to the charts. If you want to pm that is fine and I can ask kpsr if you feel unsure of passing on his work directly
hi orid,

I second TradeFinder, I was going to ask same thing from you or kprsa, if it is okay ?

cheers
hannele
  • #9,544
  • Sep 29, 2014 5:25am Sep 29, 2014 5:25am
Quoting TradeFinder
{quote} Hi Is it possible to share kprsa's pm explanation of his indi, I am struggling to see the relationship of the statistics to the charts. If you want to pm that is fine and I can ask kpsra if you feel unsure of passing on his work directly
Quoting hannele
{quote} hi orid, I second TradeFinder, I was going to ask same thing from you or kprsa, if it is okay ? cheers hannele
Maybe this will help you guys. If not just ignore. Put simply, in 'laymans' terms, the indicator tends to pick price levels where price does not hang around unecessarily. That means price does not 'range' or 'whipsaw' there. 95% of the time anyway. That's the edge. It either rejects price, 'bounce', or it collapses, 'breakout'. Once you are certain of the reaction, all thats left is to figure out entries. It's even more effective as levels for stop placements and trade management. Here's my most recent trade doing just that. Closed half positions already for 150pips, and protective stop now at 90pips on remaining positions. Stress free.
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  • #9,545
  • Sep 29, 2014 5:45am Sep 29, 2014 5:45am
An interesting post for TradeVector (2005!):

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=21565#post21565

Timing, Direction, Magnitude and Probability.
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #9,546
  • Sep 29, 2014 5:47am Sep 29, 2014 5:47am
Nice day of trading so far.

This works on any pair and any TF!
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Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #9,547
  • Sep 29, 2014 5:48am Sep 29, 2014 5:48am
Pretty close to a description/definition of supply and demand levels as well.
  • #9,548
  • Sep 29, 2014 5:52am Sep 29, 2014 5:52am
Quoting handy148
Pretty close to a description/definition of supply and demand levels as well.
major difference is the 'h' factor.
  • #9,549
  • Sep 29, 2014 5:55am Sep 29, 2014 5:55am
Sometimes I wonder if we are all guilty of trying to over-complicate things. Litechild chart is a perfect example of good old basic lower highs and lower lows.
  • #9,550
  • Sep 29, 2014 5:57am Sep 29, 2014 5:57am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} {quote} Maybe this will help you guys. If not just ignore. Put simply, in 'laymans' terms, the indicator tends to pick price levels where price does not hang around unecessarily. That means price does not 'range' or 'whipsaw' there. 95% of the time anyway. That's the edge. It either rejects price, 'bounce', or it collapses, 'breakout'. Once you are certain of the reaction, all thats left is to figure out entries. It's even more effective as levels for stop placements and trade management. Here's my most recent trade doing just that. Closed...
Hi

Yes i can see this part working and having read all the thread pages it is nice to see some of the developed simplicity in action, we all know it has not been simple to work through this and its still positively head hurting in lots of places.

To ask my question better, I have just quickly copied your chart with the transient zones indicator and set h to 48 as you have. i have then set kprsa indi to h=48 and it showed the number of bars at 9826, I then updated the the transient zones indi to have the same number of bars so they are operating on the same sample size.

Observations show the confirmed transient bars are at 2.03% which is low against the quoted 3% and 97% split, how much does this matter - I am not sure currently

BUT I am struggling to see the relationship of the probabilities edge offerred by kprsa indi which shows some high %'s which feels really good but what do all the numbers mean and how is that tradeable as an edge is the thrust of this question
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  • #9,551
  • Sep 29, 2014 6:07am Sep 29, 2014 6:07am
Quoting TradeFinder
{quote} Hi Yes i can see this part working and having read all the thread pages it is nice to see some of the developed simplicity in action, we all know it has not been simple to work through this and its still positively head hurting in lots of places. To ask my question better, I have just quickly copied your chart with the transient zones indicator and set h to 48 as you have. i have then set kprsa indi to h=48 and it showed the number of bars at 9826, I then updated the the transient zones indi to have the same number of bars so they are operating...
apart from the h=48 part, I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. Don't overcomplicate it. The Transient Zones indy with the appropriate 'h' set, is already doing most of the headscratching work for you, so why stressing your brain again? Just trade what your charts are showing. Don't try to pick tops and buttoms. Ignore TZs that signal trades against the trend, and you'll be fine. That's what I do.
  • #9,552
  • Sep 29, 2014 6:15am Sep 29, 2014 6:15am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} apart from the h=48 part, I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. Don't overcomplicate it. The Transient Zones indy with the appropriate 'h' set, is already doing most of the headscratching work for you, so why stressing your brain again? Just trade what your charts are showing. Don't try to pick tops and buttoms. Ignore TZs that signal trades against the trend, and you'll be fine. That's what I do.
Thank you Litechild

cheers
hannele
  • #9,553
  • Sep 29, 2014 6:17am Sep 29, 2014 6:17am
Quoting TradeFinder
{quote} Hi Yes i can see this part working and having read all the thread pages it is nice to see some of the developed simplicity in action, we all know it has not been simple to work through this and its still positively head hurting in lots of places. To ask my question better, I have just quickly copied your chart with the transient zones indicator and set h to 48 as you have. i have then set kprsa indi to h=48 and it showed the number of bars at 9826, I then updated the the transient zones indi to have the same number of bars so they are operating...
Out of curiosity, let me ask, which amoong TZ1, TZ2 and TZ3 was the determining factor in taking that trade. Which candle was the 'gamechanger' or if you like 'confirmation' or 'trigger'?
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  • #9,554
  • Sep 29, 2014 6:19am Sep 29, 2014 6:19am
Quoting limprobable
An interesting post for TradeVector (2005!): http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=21565#post21565 Timing, Direction, Magnitude and Probability.


Those things sum up my philosophy
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,555
  • Sep 29, 2014 6:21am Sep 29, 2014 6:21am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} Out of curiosity, let me ask, which amoong TZ1, TZ2 and TZ3 was the determining factor in taking that trade. Which candle was the 'gamechanger' or if you like 'confirmation' or 'trigger'? {image}
TZ3 is the trigger. You had within 30 minutes of the candle breaching TZ3 to decide if that range was transient or not. The move also pierced TZ2 so you knew it was down directionally.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,556
  • Sep 29, 2014 6:27am Sep 29, 2014 6:27am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} TZ3 is the trigger. You had within 30 minutes of the candle breaching TZ3 to decide if that range was transient or not. The move also pierced TZ2 so you knew it was down directionally.
interesting answer my friend. I'll wait for other opinions before sharing my thots further.
  • #9,557
  • Sep 29, 2014 6:28am Sep 29, 2014 6:28am
The deal is this. You could treat any old horizontal line as a support or resistance. Trade could be via a bounce or breakout. Nice and simple.
The TZs give you the same behaviour as S/R lines, but it's a quicker judgement call because the price will either bounce or go through - with certainty.

Notice in LITEchild's chart, there wasn't a TZ for every top or bottom swing. TZ3 wasn't a top. So it's not just Tops and Bottoms.
These zones can happen within price bars. And if they do... the zone means they are transient - they won't hang around for that bar or h bars on that chart.

There's your trade opportunity. If you know price will not go back to X then you can put your stop safely behind it. Bingo Boingo... your trade is easier.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,558
  • Sep 29, 2014 6:36am Sep 29, 2014 6:36am
Quoting TradeFinder
{quote} Hi Is it possible to share kprsa's pm explanation of his indi, I am struggling to see the relationship of the statistics to the charts. If you want to pm that is fine and I can ask kpsra if you feel unsure of passing on his work directly
Hi Tradefinder and hannele please ask kpsra I'm sure he would be only too happy to explain. ( my questions to him were very basic) and his answers may not be that helpful if you are after a detailed explanation. maybe we could persuade him for a PDF
My take ::It gives you probability statistics of where price is likely to return to based on the settings you put in (h bars left and right)
same as transient ind but more detailed , still learning it my self .
Regards Orid
  • #9,559
  • Sep 29, 2014 6:36am Sep 29, 2014 6:36am
Quoting vlady1974
The deal is this. You could treat any old horizontal line as a support or resistance. Trade could be via a bounce or breakout. Nice and simple. The TZs give you the same behaviour as S/R lines, but it's a quicker judgement call because the price will either bounce or go through - with certainty. Notice in LITEchild's chart, there wasn't a TZ for every top or bottom swing. TZ3 wasn't a top. So it's not just Tops and Bottoms. These zones can happen within price bars. And if they do... the zone means they are transient - they...
  • #9,560
  • Sep 29, 2014 6:38am Sep 29, 2014 6:38am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} interesting answer my friend. I'll wait for other opinions before sharing my thots further.
I'm sure there are more ways to skin a cat. It was the obvious one when I looked at it
On a good day, I might have just shorted that top of that last swing.... on a bad day, I may have shorted on the break of TZ2
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
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