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NZD/USD

  • #7,841
  • Sep 26, 2014 1:15pm Sep 26, 2014 1:15pm
Likely outcome?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH4 19.png Size: 48 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #7,842
  • Sep 26, 2014 3:40pm Sep 26, 2014 3:40pm
Well, i think this beast will fall until next rate decision, after rbnz and banker happy with that number, they will rate hike again..just my opinion..
  • #7,843
  • Edited Sep 27, 2014 2:49am Sep 26, 2014 5:40pm | Edited Sep 27, 2014 2:49am
Quoting Corral
Well, i think this beast will fall until next rate decision, after rbnz and banker happy with that number, they will rate hike again..just my opinion..
You are welcomed. More opinions, please!
  • #7,844
  • Edited Sep 27, 2014 2:38am Sep 26, 2014 5:48pm | Edited Sep 27, 2014 2:38am
http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_...ry.aspx#exrate
I read this again.

It wrote :
"
Exchange rate movements
According to the Reserve Bank’s trade weighted index,
the New Zealand dollar was 2.1 percent lower in August 2014 than in July 2014,
and 5.9 percent higher than in August 2013.
"

TWI conclusion NZD/USD:
now = AUG2014 = JULY2014-2.1% = AUG2013+5.9%

So it needs at least ths same as AUG2013 level?
AUG2013 NZD/USD range : 0.7719-0.8162
  • #7,845
  • Edited Sep 27, 2014 2:48am Sep 26, 2014 5:56pm | Edited Sep 27, 2014 2:48am
On trade balance SEP2014 it wrote :
"Seasonally adjusted exports rise 15 percent
The seasonally adjusted value of exported goods in August 2014 was up 15 percent ($574 million) from July 2014. This follows a 9.3 percent decrease in July 2014.
The trend for exports has been falling since the recent peak in January 2014. It is 1.1 percent higher than in August 2013.
Seasonally adjusted imports fall 2.8 percent
Seasonally adjusted imports fell 2.8 percent ($115 million), to $4.0 billion for August 2014, compared with July 2014. This follows a 1.8 percent decrease in July 2014. Excluding petroleum and products, seasonally adjusted imports fell 0.4 percent in August 2014."


On the trade balance 31JAN2014 it wrote :
"December 2013 quarter
For the December 2013 quarter,
seasonally adjusted exports rose 10 percent (to $13.4 billion)
seasonally adjusted imports fell 2.8 percent (to $12.3 billion)
from the September 2013 quarter.
The seasonally adjusted trade balance for the December 2013 quarter was a surplus of $1.1 billion (8.0 percent of exports)
– the first surplus over $1.0 billion since the series began.

December 2013 month
For the December 2013 month, export values increased $658 million (16 percent) compared with December 2012. Imports increased $669 million (19 percent). The trade balance for the December 2013 month was a surplus of $523 million (11 percent of exports)."


31JAN2014 Trade balance : 523M
JAN2014 : 11% up
SEP2014 : 15%-9.3%=5.7% up only
  • #7,846
  • Edited 6:56pm Sep 26, 2014 6:27pm | Edited 6:56pm
The most important part for JAN2014 trade balance report :

"
Milk powder exports, particularly to China, dominated the total goods exported for the year ended December 2013, Statistics New Zealand said today. This led to many new record highs, such as export values for the month, quarter, and year for the grouping milk powder, butter, and cheese.
“For 2013, the value of goods we exported rose by $2.0 billion – to reach $48.1 billion – and most of this increase was from milk powder,” industry and labour statistics manager Louise Holmes-Oliver said. “Almost half of our milk powder exports went to China.”
Goods exported to China in the year ended December 2013 were valued at $10.0 billion, of which $4.0 billion was milk powder. This is the highest-ever value of milk powder exported to China for any year.
“China became our top annual export destination in 2013, a spot Australia had held since the year ended September 1989,” Louise Holmes-Oliver said. “For imports, China’s been our main partner since December 2011.”
Imports for the December 2013 year were up $1.1 billion, to $48.3 billion.
"
China CNY rise so best for earning more from milk powder even if price down in the near future.
  • #7,847
  • Sep 28, 2014 4:28pm Sep 28, 2014 4:28pm
Quoting roger44
{quote} You are welcomed. More opinions, please!
THIS PAIR WILL never see .8xxx's again
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #7,848
  • Sep 28, 2014 5:03pm Sep 28, 2014 5:03pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} THIS PAIR WILL never see .8xxx's again
Are you kidding?
  • #7,849
  • Edited 5:53pm Sep 28, 2014 5:29pm | Edited 5:53pm
Tomorrow building consents m/m will be lower because you can see AUG2014 data lower as NZD/USD lower.
Not good for NZD/USD.
  • #7,850
  • Sep 28, 2014 5:31pm Sep 28, 2014 5:31pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} THIS PAIR WILL never see .8xxx's again
The strongest long term trend from 2011 march, may 2012 (Weekly chart)... Was broke by a full red candle, and this is the strongest and more proved trend, so i think is very very difficult to see a NZDusd 0,8xx again.. something big needs to happen, very big. New Zealand people dont need a 0,8xx value, they are export people more than import people.
  • #7,851
  • Sep 28, 2014 5:33pm Sep 28, 2014 5:33pm
Quoting tedsung
{quote} Are you kidding?
This month or Oct might pop touch but in the next two years.. we will be staying in the 6 and 7's
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #7,852
  • Sep 28, 2014 5:54pm Sep 28, 2014 5:54pm
I see a possibility of a short term retracement going to .805 to .81 to scare the shorts exiting their positions or enticing new/more longs but I wouldn't dare try to long this pair even for a few pips. Just way too much risk on the long side. I agree there is definitely a sell off in NZD for the longer term and it will go much deeper than anyone expects.

Quoting Rtm
{quote} THIS PAIR WILL never see .8xxx's again
  • #7,853
  • Sep 28, 2014 6:05pm Sep 28, 2014 6:05pm
Quoting 4_x
I see a possibility of a short term retracement going to .805 to .81 to scare the shorts exiting their positions or enticing new/more longs but I wouldn't dare try to long this pair even for a few pips. Just way too much risk on the long side. I agree there is definitely a sell off in NZD for the longer term and it will go much deeper than anyone expects. {quote}
Only thing will do is the China 's anniversary (1stOCT) if any China news will be mentioned for the next year import of milk powder and all kinds of meat.
  • #7,854
  • Sep 28, 2014 6:06pm Sep 28, 2014 6:06pm
Quoting 4_x
I see a possibility of a short term retracement going to .805 to .81 to scare the shorts exiting their positions or enticing new/more longs but I wouldn't dare try to long this pair even for a few pips. Just way too much risk on the long side. I agree there is definitely a sell off in NZD for the longer term and it will go much deeper than anyone expects. {quote}
Added 1 short on the open already in the +
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #7,855
  • Sep 28, 2014 6:10pm Sep 28, 2014 6:10pm
Ditto

Quoting Rtm
{quote} Added 1 short on the open already in the +
  • #7,856
  • Sep 28, 2014 6:24pm Sep 28, 2014 6:24pm
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11333355

we find out if rbnz has be intervening with kiwi dollar
  • #7,857
  • Sep 28, 2014 6:24pm Sep 28, 2014 6:24pm
NZD/AUD chart is useful. If possible, can FF put this choice on the Market in FF?
Mr Wheeler may hook NZD/AUS to 0.89xx-0.90xx.
  • #7,858
  • Sep 28, 2014 8:28pm Sep 28, 2014 8:28pm
Some more reading
http://www.interest.co.nz/currencies...-agrees-interv
  • #7,859
  • Sep 28, 2014 8:37pm Sep 28, 2014 8:37pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} THIS PAIR WILL never see .8xxx's again
Can you share your crystal ball?? Even with rate hike to 4,75%? The pair will never see .8xxx?
  • #7,860
  • Sep 28, 2014 8:43pm Sep 28, 2014 8:43pm
Quoting Corral
{quote} Can you share your crystal ball?? Even with rate hike to 4,75%? The pair will never see .8xxx?
I have been sharing my crystal ball already lol read my posts at all? Lot of them are bashing and trolling as that is what a lot of noobs need on here lol

As things currently stand No not even 2017
All posts are my personal opinion
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