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The similarity system

  • #9,481
  • Sep 27, 2014 1:07am Sep 27, 2014 1:07am
Quoting LiquidGenius
{quote} Here's a quick tip that might help you get started. If you know the probability that a left side transient bar will become recurrent (or that a recurrent bar will become transient) then you also know the probability that a specific price or set of prices will be touched (or not touched). Thus, you can now associate certain price levels with probabilities. These points may or may not be able to function like special kinds of transient/recurrent type bars.
Thank you for your tip. Will think about it over the weekend.
follow the flow
  • #9,482
  • Sep 27, 2014 2:08am Sep 27, 2014 2:08am
I was feeling nostalgic and was going through some very old posts from old masters.
here's one from the great Cloggie on EU thread.... Pertinent for those who are experiencing breakthroughs...

Quoting cloggie
Trading for a living is not a myth. Treat it as a business. Do your research, stick to a plan. Fx is very rewarding both financially and mentally. Do not become fixated on indicators, study one currency thoroughly and become familiar with its quirks. Learn about Pivot points, Support and Resistance, Trends. Identify tops and bottoms for entry and exits. Keep in mind that you are only trading against yourself, the market does not give a toss about you. Find a system, a time frame and a currency pair that works for you. Practise it over and over again,...
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,483
  • Sep 27, 2014 2:15am Sep 27, 2014 2:15am
Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote} And this is displayed under the "Probability of fully resolving possible transient bar" field right?
Yes, if it is a transient zone that you're looking at. If it's a fractal zone, you check for that probability.


Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote}If so that displayed value changes as the chart moves?
Yes, it should, but not by much. The statistics is typically done over thousands of bars, so several tens of new bars would not make a big difference.

k
  • #9,484
  • Sep 27, 2014 3:54am Sep 27, 2014 3:54am
Quoting vlady1974
I was feeling nostalgic and was going through some very old posts from old masters. here's one from the great Cloggie on EU thread.... Pertinent for those who are experiencing breakthroughs... {quote}
Great post mate. Still believe in focusing on one pair till you no her behavior inside out. I was wondering if the trz work exactly on other pairs as it does with eurusd. I have a contest and i have to trade 5 pairs to increase my odds.
For my personal account i have decided to continue sticking to eurusd until the contest proves otherwise as i app.y trz to other pairs.
  • #9,485
  • Sep 27, 2014 3:55am Sep 27, 2014 3:55am
It might interest you to know that i have switched camp from swing trading to scqlping. A good entry with be co verted to swings. I think thats a more profitable and effective strategy
  • #9,486
  • Sep 27, 2014 4:36am Sep 27, 2014 4:36am
Quoting ephisi
It might interest you to know that i have switched camp from swing trading to scqlping. A good entry with be co verted to swings. I think thats a more profitable and effective strategy
I found yesterday quite interesting and it made me think about the nature of Trends vs Ranging.
I believe these periods actually change people's emotions due to the effect on time.

Trends are easier to trade: Time Delta is les than Price Delta
Range Markets are difficult: Time Delta much larger than Price Delta, over an Oscillating Cycle

I was able to make easy pips yesterday than in the last two weeks because the TZ and ZZBB was in trend from a breakout. The last two weeks were ranging, but over a wide price range. Trends within a Range are so minuscule that you are pretty much scalping within 1H blocks, which really means entries and exits within minute blocks.

Trending markets can be left for hours. That leads into days. And this is where I believe the fractal nature of price bars starts to fall or become non-fractal but cyclical. A day is 24 hours. But not every week is made up of 5 days. You have holidays etc. A month is not always 4 weeks globally. It's not a universal measure.

So the inherent strategies of swings that lend itself to higher timeframes can only be used in Trends that are strong. On EU, I believe we're approaching 1/2 way and since the fall has gone 1.26 the retrace to 1.3 or 1.29 looks likely. even a fall to 1.25 calls for a retrace to 1.28-29 which can only come from a swing move not a consolidation/ranging move.

Having said that, I think you can actually swing scalp or hybrid the trading. Instead of short/hold as is the case for EU you could target 30 pip moves on lower timeframes. This was actually how I got my 110 pips yesterday. I had 4 of these plus a minus 10 loss on 3 smaller trades. Ironically, the 3 smaller trades were in small 5 min consolidations.

So i believe, swing trading can be adapted to scalping. I believe a trader in EU Thread did this consistently using 12 pip scalps averaging 4-5 signals a day, for a minimum of 60 pips that were compounded on previous days profits. He was still in trend, but didn't deviate from the TP, even if the market moved 120. Easily you could open two accounts and trade on this kind of scalp and have another for the entry/hold.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,487
  • Sep 27, 2014 7:34am Sep 27, 2014 7:34am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I found yesterday quite interesting and it made me think about the nature of Trends vs Ranging. I believe these periods actually change people's emotions due to the effect on time. Trends are easier to trade: Time Delta is les than Price Delta Range Markets are difficult: Time Delta much larger than Price Delta, over an Oscillating Cycle I was able to make easy pips yesterday than in the last two weeks because the TZ and ZZBB was in trend from a breakout. The last two weeks were ranging, but over a wide price range. Trends within a Range...
Exactly what i did, i opened a second account for scalping, thats what i posted yesterday on the thread. But what i came to realize is that certain scalptrades can be converted to swings. That is, if a scalp trade quickly moves 20pios in my favor and continues with momentum then i should hold. Thats my plan. I will keep scalping in range market.

From what i have seen in my last 6months on eurusd, and this has been confirmed by eurusdd, dont expect to see trends every day on eurusd. They are rare if u have noticed. Range range range breakout 100pips then range range range range breakout 100pips.
A 30-50pips profit trade to me qualifies as a scalp as long as the move happens in a short time.
  • #9,488
  • Sep 27, 2014 7:47am Sep 27, 2014 7:47am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Exactly what i did, i opened a second account for scalping, thats what i posted yesterday on the thread. But what i came to realize is that certain scalptrades can be converted to swings. That is, if a scalp trade quickly moves 20pios in my favor and continues with momentum then i should hold. Thats my plan. I will keep scalping in range market. From what i have seen in my last 6months on eurusd, and this has been confirmed by eurusdd, dont expect to see trends every day on eurusd. They are rare if u have noticed. Range range range breakout...
Got you! Now I understand your definition. I agree, I think you've captured the difficulty I've noticed with intra day trends. You're spot on about the movement. It was different in 2009-2010. I was still learning then but guys could pull in 200 pips WEEKLY, that is within 2 days. Can't do that now unless you scalp both directions.Anyways, we may call it different things but we're on the same wavelength. I'm eyeing EURCAD as well for a short next week. As well as Cable and possibly more Dollar longs . I will probably post less here as well during the day, but keep an eye on it - know what I mean. We have enough so far to reap good consistent green pips.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,489
  • Sep 27, 2014 8:24am Sep 27, 2014 8:24am
Hi All, I have been trying learn what you guys are doing, what I have noticed here
is no one post there charts for those trying to learn it would be very helpful
for some of you that have this down to post a chart of the trades you take.

As they say a picture is worth 1000 words..Thanks in advance for your help!!

Happy Trading All!
  • #9,490
  • Sep 27, 2014 1:06pm Sep 27, 2014 1:06pm
Getting close now. Couple more pieces to fit in. Have an explorer up..at least I think its up. Propose is for progress tracking that's all. I've nothing to proof...everyone know I'm not brightest bulb on the xmas tree already. If you happen to see the thing growing however, you should really get to reading this thread.
I want more brain power!
  • #9,491
  • Sep 27, 2014 5:42pm Sep 27, 2014 5:42pm
Ideas for Projections

Some calculations and research on timing suggests that a bottoming between now and early Oct is due. I've been doing a variety of price projections but one simple one is attached below using Fibs.

Based on the 4H, I've simply aligned the 50% with the largest Even Zone, which has a higher chance of being recurrent than Uneven Zones. I draw my Fibs using quarters... and coincidentally and interestingly, they are lining up with key levels and turning points.

Doing this, sets the final Fib projection is 2523. Were it to bounce from this point, it could retrace to 1.31, 1.29, 1.28
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-4H.png Size: 93 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,492
  • Sep 27, 2014 6:13pm Sep 27, 2014 6:13pm
Here's the 15M with Bollinger Band, to show that the TZ concept can be combined with a Similarity Technique.
The Uneven Transient Zones tend to close outside the Bollinger Band which are turning points.

This chart however, has a misprice where I've indicated. Misprices are targets of return. 2755 to 2839

And of course, printed zones can act as Breakout Lines, which in EU's case is a short when the last Bottom Forming Uneven TZ is breached to the southside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-15M.png Size: 142 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,493
  • Sep 27, 2014 6:31pm Sep 27, 2014 6:31pm
And here's a 1M view of the TZ as they would appear base d on h=6, just for illustrative purposes.
I had to do this without the indicator and just eyeball the tops and bottoms for the price action bars that could create Uneven TZs.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-15M.png Size: 113 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,494
  • Sep 27, 2014 6:32pm Sep 27, 2014 6:32pm
Quoting trdmny
Hi All, I have been trying learn what you guys are doing, what I have noticed here is no one post there charts for those trying to learn it would be very helpful for some of you that have this down to post a chart of the trades you take. As they say a picture is worth 1000 words..Thanks in advance for your help!! Happy Trading All!
There you go, a few charts posted for you! Enjoy!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,495
  • Sep 27, 2014 7:04pm Sep 27, 2014 7:04pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} There you go, a few charts posted for you! Enjoy!
Very nice and very helpful!!
That's makes it a lot easier to see it in action
  • #9,496
  • Sep 27, 2014 7:22pm Sep 27, 2014 7:22pm
Quoting vlady1974
Here's the 15M with Bollinger Band, to show that the TZ concept can be combined with a Similarity Technique. The Uneven Transient Zones tend to close outside the Bollinger Band which are turning points. This chart however, has a misprice where I've indicated. Misprices are targets of return. 2755 to 2839 And of course, printed zones can act as Breakout Lines, which in EU's case is a short when the last Bottom Forming Uneven TZ is breached to the southside. {image}
Hi Vlady, thanks for posting the nice charts! But I'm failing to see how you spotted the misprice from that chart alone. Not just because it happened within the BBs is it? Thanks, NT.
You reap what you sow.
  • #9,497
  • Sep 27, 2014 10:42pm Sep 27, 2014 10:42pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} There you go, a few charts posted for you! Enjoy!
Very generous V. Hats of to ya Lets get em pips next week!
I want more brain power!
  • #9,498
  • Sep 27, 2014 10:52pm Sep 27, 2014 10:52pm
Quoting vlady1974
And here's a 1M view of the TZ as they would appear base d on h=6, just for illustrative purposes. I had to do this without the indicator and just eyeball the tops and bottoms for the price action bars that could create Uneven TZs. {image}
nice charts Vlady you are a credit to this thread ,
Regards Orid peter
  • #9,499
  • Sep 28, 2014 2:14am Sep 28, 2014 2:14am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Hi Vlady, thanks for posting the nice charts! But I'm failing to see how you spotted the misprice from that chart alone. Not just because it happened within the BBs is it? Thanks, NT.
Hi North,

You're right, it's purely because it didn't close outside BB. Equally it can be argued as just a normal failure within Bollinger Band, although I remember at the time watching the EU thread and there were expectations by some of the better traders for prices to break 2760. Hence why I was watching.... You can see that there was that close outside BB momentarily.... That's the valid top sequence, but just barely. The moment that failure came about, I believe I shorted soon after but I recall thinking it didn't seem right....like the flow was interrupted.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,500
  • Sep 28, 2014 2:39am Sep 28, 2014 2:39am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hi North, You're right, it's purely because it didn't close outside BB. Equally it can be argued as just a normal failure within Bollinger Band, although I remember at the time watching the EU thread and there were expectations by some of the better traders for prices to break 2760. Hence why I was watching.... You can see that there was that close outside BB momentarily.... That's the valid top sequence, but just barely. The moment that failure came about, I believe I shorted soon after but I recall thinking it didn't seem right....like...
Yeah Vlady, thanks. I was only asking because there were a couple more before that one that happened within the BBs too, but they both got revisited. Do you think they were misprices too?
You reap what you sow.
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