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The similarity system

  • #9,461
  • Sep 26, 2014 10:21am Sep 26, 2014 10:21am
i still dont know how you guys calc the probability.
follow the flow
  • #9,462
  • Sep 26, 2014 10:23am Sep 26, 2014 10:23am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I think we've all been quiet and getting on with the business of making green pips!
  • #9,463
  • Sep 26, 2014 10:35am Sep 26, 2014 10:35am
Quoting ephisi
So this is the reason why i have been quiet. I was snipping pips. Using sound money management and reasonable compounding. That is from my live account i opened to test what i have learned here. Also for those wondering why i deleted trade explorer. If i was leveraging like eurusdd i should have doubled the account by now. {image} {image}
well done
As Above, So Below
  • #9,464
  • Sep 26, 2014 10:53am Sep 26, 2014 10:53am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} well done
THANKS BUDDY
  • #9,465
  • Sep 26, 2014 10:56am Sep 26, 2014 10:56am
Quoting mario777
{quote} 70 pips tp! now on sell ,,, {image}
Hey short worked well. I was lucky to close my long before the drop came. Do mind explaining why you shorted? Is it just because of the TZ or is there something else?
I want more brain power!
  • #9,466
  • Sep 26, 2014 11:10am Sep 26, 2014 11:10am
Quoting elen21168
{quote} This is what i got on ZzBB. It will swing today, latest on Monday ... and will down next week. For today, my Sell target today is around 1.2838. There is unfinished job at zone 2836-2840. It will go up again today/Monday to reach upper BB, then it will be a long down next week ... {image}
Quoting elen21168
{quote} My first target is reached. Lets see, if it goes below 2862, i will sell again. If not, then i think it will retrace, going up. I will do a sell at the top later .... Edit: if it goes up, i think it will reach 2917 - 2925. i will sell from there
Quoting elen21168
{quote} Hm... the trend is still up. There is unfinished job around "DS Zone : 2917-2922. It will goes down first to around 2831-2834. If this happen, i will buy around 2834. Target around 2918. If it does not go down, i will buy at > 2870. May be i will put a buy limit (2834) & buy stop (2871), TP 2918. Just share my though, this is Not a call. Edit: AU & NU are still bearish, will wait for the top to do a Sell.
This week is a great week. For today, i got +42 pips (+55 & -13pips), based on this great thread. Many Thanks to Eurusdd ...
Trying to look back on my plan this week:
On last Friday DS/TRZ concept gave me signal, and i predicted it will go like number (1) path on image below.
But on Monday, it gave me another hints. This made my target changed, then i predicted it will go like number (2) path.
But market went through path number (3). The highest of real market price is between my number (1) & (2).

What i learned from this great concept is that i must be dynamic. If market tells me different, then i must re-calculate it, and change my target or direction if needed. I know my path number (2) has a high lower than the real market high. But i am happy, the main direction is right ( it was down, up, then down ).
I know this difference is not caused by the concept, but by my code and limit ability to read the price given by market. This still need improving from time to time, and hope it will be better in the future.

I have seen so many good results from you all here in this thread, congratulation. This is a prove for me, that i am in the right thread !!!
Thank you to you all, especially to Eurusdd and all members that has contributed and given helps and guidance.
Time for me to take a rest, good night every body .... meet you again next week, always have green pips ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-H1-zzBB-diff-2.jpg Size: 59 KB
  • #9,467
  • Sep 26, 2014 11:13am Sep 26, 2014 11:13am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} great i am thinking should i close the shorts and re-enter later (it is trying to bounce at 1.6238) or keep until 1.62 which right now looks like damn highly possible.
I ended up doing that as well. Closed everything as I didn't want to hold over the weekend. Will look to reload EU on the break anywhere under 2700/2690.
Seems weird but today was the easiest 110 pips I've made this month. Need more days like this.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,468
  • Sep 26, 2014 11:17am Sep 26, 2014 11:17am
Quoting elen21168
{quote} {quote} {quote} What i learned from this great concept is that i must be dynamic. If market tells me different, then i must re-calculate it, and change my target or direction if needed. I have seen so many good results from you all here in this thread, congratulation. This is a prove for me, that i am in the right thread !!! Thank you to you all, especially to Eurusdd and all members that has contributed and given helps and guidance. Time for me to take a rest, good night every body .... meet you again next week, always have green pips ......
Congratulations on your success! I love your statement about being able to adapt and be flexible. You're reacting as well as forecasting.... but you're not demanding from the market.

It's being like a surfer.... (or a snowboarder like me)... you know the direction but you adjust to the conditions of the water or snow in the moment, whilst keeping steer of direction.

Great to see lots of successes now! And everyone's approach is unique.... but hmmmm somehow all too familiar! Wonder what that is?!
Have a great weekend!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #9,469
  • Sep 26, 2014 11:22am Sep 26, 2014 11:22am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Congratulations on your success! I love your statement about being able to adapt and be flexible. You're reacting as well as forecasting.... but you're not demanding from the market. It's being like a surfer.... (or a snowboarder like me)... you know the direction but you adjust to the conditions of the water or snow in the moment, whilst keeping steer of direction. Great to see lots of successes now! And everyone's approach is unique.... but hmmmm somehow all too familiar! Wonder what that is?! Have a great weekend!
Thank you very much mate, i learned a lot from you. You have always valuable posts .
Have a nice weekend too ...
  • #9,470
  • Sep 26, 2014 11:26am Sep 26, 2014 11:26am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I ended up doing that as well. Closed everything as I didn't want to hold over the weekend. Will look to reload EU on the break anywhere under 2700/2690. Seems weird but today was the easiest 110 pips I've made this month. Need more days like this.
i decided to hold to see if 1.6260 was indeed the number, and looks like it was
congrats with the easiest 110 pips and i believe more to come!
As Above, So Below
  • #9,471
  • Sep 26, 2014 11:46am Sep 26, 2014 11:46am
After much head banging I still do not think I've fully grasp the concept yet and I know how oblivious I can get! I do have something that fits my style and test results have been fairly positive so I'll share the general thought process behind and maybe someone can find some use out of it.

Indicator is Kpsra's and the tiny arrows it paints are my points of interest.

1)Prices is supposed to be 97%ish recurrent so when a tiny arrow paints I expect price(P) to be there again some time in the future.

2)I trade only arrows where price moves away in the opposite direction as that gives me space to trade. So if I get a downwards arrow and price starts moving up and away, I look for a place to sell back to (P). Essentially I am "selling the bottoms" and "buying the tops"

3)You can technically describe (2) as a direction following approach

4)I do this across M1 and M5 for my exit signals so to speak. When M1 and M5 both close with a pointy arrow, I assume similarity has occurred and expect a change in price direction. This is where I take whatever I have off the table.

5)I then start looking for trades in the other direction and repeat the process till I'm happy with the day's taking.

This is by no means perfect and test are still going. I believe there are some still flaws still in the logic process so do kindly comment if you spot any flaw in this process. The whole idea of this sharing is to echo the point that this is a worthwhile endeavour for considerations.
I want more brain power!
  • #9,472
  • Sep 26, 2014 1:36pm Sep 26, 2014 1:36pm
Quoting Atihun
i still dont know how you guys calc the probability.
Here's a quick tip that might help you get started.
If you know the probability that a left side transient bar will become recurrent (or that a recurrent bar will become transient) then you also know the probability that a specific price or set of prices will be touched (or not touched). Thus, you can now associate certain price levels with probabilities. These points may or may not be able to function like special kinds of transient/recurrent type bars.
"Mrrraggglhlhghghlgh"
  • #9,473
  • Sep 26, 2014 7:24pm Sep 26, 2014 7:24pm
Quoting cfdtaleong
After much head banging I still do not think I've fully grasp the concept yet and I know how oblivious I can get! I do have something that fits my style and test results have been fairly positive so I'll share the general thought process behind and maybe someone can find some use out of it. Indicator is Kpsra's and the tiny arrows it paints are my points of interest. 1)Prices is supposed to be 97%ish recurrent so when a tiny arrow paints I expect price(P) to be there again some time in the future. 2)I trade only arrows where price moves away in...
Hi Cfd I think you maybe concentrating too much on the system some times and you cant see the wood for the trees ( im guilty also) What I do, and it really pays for me is this , forget the system and just put up a plain chart,clear your head (not much to clear in my case lol) and see what is going on , like yester day was pretty easy to trade , what im trying to say is this system is great the way I trade but some times you can get carried away with looking for signals without seeing what is obviously happening (brain overload) hope this makes some sense as this describes me.
well that's my dribble for today good luck matey, may all your pips be many little ones .
As you know I have trouble understanding kpsrs indi , he kindly explained with a pm and I thank him for that , I dont understand these fractals(yes my novice showing) and the small arrows so im going to study bigtime to get my head in order with the fractals
best regards Orid peter
  • #9,474
  • Sep 26, 2014 7:55pm Sep 26, 2014 7:55pm
A little late on this, but made a good few pips from yesterday using TZ combined with CI

side note noob question- what does kpsra Indy do?
  • #9,475
  • Sep 26, 2014 9:32pm Sep 26, 2014 9:32pm
Quoting orid
{quote} Hi Cfd I think you maybe concentrating too much on the system some times and you cant see the wood for the trees ( im guilty also) What I do, and it really pays for me is this , forget the system and just put up a plain chart,clear your head (not much to clear in my case lol) and see what is going on , like yester day was pretty easy to trade , what im trying to say is this system is great the way I trade but some times you can get carried away with looking for signals without seeing what is obviously happening (brain overload) hope...
What do you mean I can't see wood for the trees? I walk into trees! I need to go relax and clear out the junk
I want more brain power!
  • #9,476
  • Sep 26, 2014 9:39pm Sep 26, 2014 9:39pm
Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote} What do you mean I can't see wood for the trees? I walk into trees! I need to go relax and clear out the junk
sorry cfd hope you didnt take offence , just that im trying to trade this with clean charts myself , just my silly opinion matey , take no notice of me regards orid peter
  • #9,477
  • Sep 26, 2014 9:43pm Sep 26, 2014 9:43pm
Quoting yuxuan89
A little late on this, but made a good few pips from yesterday using TZ combined with CI side note noob question- what does kpsra Indy do?
check kpsra posts please yuxuan 89, it gives you probabilities on certain price zones being returned to and lots of other valuable info
regards orid peter
  • #9,478
  • Edited 10:39pm Sep 26, 2014 10:09pm | Edited 10:39pm
Quoting orid
{quote}sorry cfd hope you didnt take offence , just that im trying to trade this with clean charts myself , just my silly opinion matey , take no notice of me regards orid peter
No no im not offended in anyway. In fact you are absolutely correct! And for whatever progress I have so far, you've been a tremendous help! I was just trying to make some humour Trying say that worse than not being able to see the wood for the trees I bloody walk into them! I guess i was not as funny as i think . Which is why I am having a nice cold one enjoying the weekend
I want more brain power!
  • #9,479
  • Sep 26, 2014 10:20pm Sep 26, 2014 10:20pm
Quoting orid
{quote} Hi Cfd I think you maybe concentrating too much on the system some times and you cant see the wood for the trees ( im guilty also) What I do, and it really pays for me is this , forget the system and just put up a plain chart,clear your head (not much to clear in my case lol) and see what is going on , like yester day was pretty easy to trade , what im trying to say is this system is great the way I trade but some times you can get carried away with looking for signals without seeing what is obviously happening (brain overload) hope...

people are doing this differently. i guess we are doing same.
  • #9,480
  • Sep 27, 2014 12:48am Sep 27, 2014 12:48am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Please note that, while this is true, it is unwise to bet with odds of something happening less than 50%. It is thus useful to calculate the probability that the zone will be taken within h_right1 (for example 12 hours after creation of zone) given that it hasn't been taken out during current h_right2 (the potential zone has, for example, been created two hours ago and not cleared yet). The recurrence statistics indy V3 enables you to estimate this probability for your h by subtracting the P(h_right1)-P(h_right2). k
And this is displayed under the "Probability of fully resolving possible transient bar" field right? If so that displayed value changes as the chart moves? I'm sorry I did not observe that portion was assuming it to be a static value. Classic case of tunnel vision. Sorry for being so thick.
I want more brain power!
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