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NZD/USD

  • #7,821
  • Sep 25, 2014 8:30am Sep 25, 2014 8:30am
just opened long at 0.79170. I don't think there is much room under this level.
  • #7,822
  • Sep 25, 2014 2:46pm Sep 25, 2014 2:46pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IMGP0635.JPG Size: 151 KB

The above chart is NZD/USD 1hour chart for 18sep-25sep2014 (up to 10pm Hongkong time), which had 5 repeating cycles.
  • #7,823
  • Edited 6:03pm Sep 25, 2014 3:19pm | Edited 6:03pm
Quoting roger44
{image} The above chart is NZD/USD 1hour chart for 18sep-25sep2014 (up to 10pm Hongkong time), which had 5 repeating cycles.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IMGP0636.JPG Size: 118 KB

The above chart is NZD/USD 1hour chart (last year) for 19sep-26sep2013 (similar week to this year), which also had some repeating cycles (not draw yet but if you already read my previous thread, you should understand).
  • #7,824
  • Sep 25, 2014 3:21pm Sep 25, 2014 3:21pm
might setup something around here, unless it closes monthly below.,.,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdmmonth.png Size: 53 KB
  • #7,825
  • Edited 4:25pm Sep 25, 2014 3:57pm | Edited 4:25pm
Quoting roger44
{quote} The document wrote "Since July, the Bank estimates the real effective exchange rate has depreciated by around 3 percent. Since 11 July 2014, the nominal cross rate against the USD has depreciated by around 7.5 percent." We may try to calculate the right rate.
The maximum value day are 10July2014 and 11July2014 which got the maximum value about 0.8832 for NZD/USD(just checked with the chart on FF), so someone can calculate the right NZD/USD for us?(deadline for you at 7:30am HKT I already give you a chance!)
(as I am still sick, my brain is not working well in this several days.)
  • #7,826
  • Sep 25, 2014 4:32pm Sep 25, 2014 4:32pm
Quoting roger44
{quote} The maximum value day are 10July2014 and 11July2014 which got the maximum value about 0.8832 for NZD/USD(just checked with the chart on FF), so someone can calculate the right NZD/USD for us?(deadline for you at 7:30am HKT I already give you a chance!) (as I am still sick, my brain is not working well in this several days.)
Time up!
0.8832x0.925=0.8169
the answer is 0.8169 !
  • #7,827
  • Sep 25, 2014 4:40pm Sep 25, 2014 4:40pm
Quoting roger44
{quote} Time up! 0.8832x0.925=0.8169 the answer is 0.8169 !
What number is it? What do you mean? Average number fo nzd?
  • #7,828
  • Sep 25, 2014 4:50pm Sep 25, 2014 4:50pm
Quoting roger44
{quote} The maximum value day are 10July2014 and 11July2014 which got the maximum value about 0.8832 for NZD/USD(just checked with the chart on FF), so someone can calculate the right NZD/USD for us?(deadline for you at 7:30am HKT I already give you a chance!) (as I am still sick, my brain is not working well in this several days.)
The PDF document wrote "Since 11 July 2014, the nominal cross rate against the USD has depreciated by around 7.5 percent."
If you are still not sure, go FF's News for further information of the NZ government.
  • #7,829
  • Sep 25, 2014 6:24pm Sep 25, 2014 6:24pm
0,81xx is the right value according to RBNZ? why?? The RBNZ pass the 0,79xx and still shooting like there is no tomorrow. I dont think RBNZ stops untill 0,7800. Remember the commodities prices!!! They have some limited usd if they devaluated the NZD thay can cover the trade balance and the spends of the government... At least thats what the old school says.... Remember they still have -472 million dollar trade balance.
  • #7,830
  • Sep 25, 2014 8:11pm Sep 25, 2014 8:11pm
NZD .7925 AUD .8780

These two famous high yielders are looking suss yet again.
Both central banks will be happy until they get they get their next CPI number.
But wait there is more .. there becomes a tipping point for investors to hedge ccy.
Some are onto it and have wisely hedged others don't believe in hedging until panic sets in.
The fall in the currency hasn't hit headlines in NZ/Australia yet but it will and that will set some panic calls from bravado economists and soothsayers.
We know then its close to a base.


The move has been in general a US dollar one overall and not just AUD or NZD and I think this will continue

Happy punting good weekend
  • #7,831
  • Sep 25, 2014 10:14pm Sep 25, 2014 10:14pm
surely some kind of support soon. i mean, the interest rates in aus and nz arent going anywhere.
  • #7,832
  • Edited 11:35pm Sep 25, 2014 10:24pm | Edited 11:35pm
As not many people had read the trade balance PDF document so clear as us, they may think in the wrong ways and oversold both NZD and AUD anyways.
I have just read the document again: "In August, New Zealand’s real effective exchange rate was 1 percent higher than its February 2014 level." which is a new thing I did not read careful.
0.8051x0.99=0.7970
  • #7,833
  • Sep 25, 2014 10:27pm Sep 25, 2014 10:27pm
It's dropping down fast man. Too bad I got long for this.
Not searching for unusual subject matter but making the commonplace unusual
  • #7,834
  • Sep 25, 2014 10:46pm Sep 25, 2014 10:46pm
Quoting Halba
surely some kind of support soon. i mean, the interest rates in aus and nz arent going anywhere.
When there is an actor in the market (RBNZ) that has an agenda other than short term profit it can throw support levels out the window.
  • #7,835
  • Sep 25, 2014 11:12pm Sep 25, 2014 11:12pm
Moreover, PDF document wrote :
"Other institutions also consider New Zealand’s real exchange rate to be unsustainable. In May 2014 the IMF suggested that New Zealand’s real effective exchange rate was 5-15 percent above the level consistent with medium-term fundamentals4. The Peterson Institute in Washington DC assessed the effective real exchange rate to be 15 percent above its sustainable level, the highest of 34 currencies reviewed5."
If -15% :
0.8779x0.85=0.7462
If -5% :
0.8779x0.95=0.8340

where 0.8779 is the max. value of May2014 NZD/USD.
  • #7,836
  • Edited Sep 26, 2014 12:12am Sep 25, 2014 11:44pm | Edited Sep 26, 2014 12:12am
Does Mr Wheeler want to hook NZD to AUD (NZD/AUS) as 0.9000?
Maybe we should check this ratio all the time in order to sell NZD when high (the signal:NZD/USD will drop soon) and then buy back when low.
  • #7,837
  • Sep 26, 2014 5:40am Sep 26, 2014 5:40am
Quoting Fx-gtg
NZD/USD monthly Similar PA . 0.76 posible before year end {image}
540 pips in profit
and today is Friday. Trend still downward means constant chase for new lows.
  • #7,838
  • Sep 26, 2014 5:41am Sep 26, 2014 5:41am
PS!
next week
October 2014
Event 125 Wednesday 1st October 12:00 UTC ( DAIRY AUCTION )
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #7,839
  • Sep 26, 2014 5:54am Sep 26, 2014 5:54am
If we close the hour here- it's gonna get ugly for bulls.
  • #7,840
  • Sep 26, 2014 9:39am Sep 26, 2014 9:39am
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