Trading is as simple as ABCD

Hi Capstone

Couple of problems with that is firstly he would need the source file to change the indy secondly he's not too keen to mess around with other guys programs because they all think differently and lastly not sure what exactly you're after?? If you're trying to work out the pairs with the biggest differential then thats easy its top 2 against bottom 2 so you can rank them like this for the example you gave:

EURUSD
USDCHF
EURAUD
AUDCHF

That gives you the top 4 pairs with biggest differential if you want top 9 include 3rd to top JPY and 3rd from bottom NZD remember you only want to be trading the top ranked pairs with the biggest differential so I would say the top 4 would be enough to choose from and just look for your setup in those 4 pairs. So is that what you're asking Ted to do just put a list up of the top 4 pairs to trade depending on their differentials???

I have the same setup with my currency strength meter top right of my screen and highlight top 2 and bottom 2 for that reason. They are the only 4 pairs I'm interested in when it comes to relative strength between currencies.

As I'm sure you're aware the problem with all strength meters and any indicator for that matter is they work from historic values so if something has been weak or strong for a while then its by definition in a state of overbought or sold so could reverse on you at any minute. However its a bit like my old timer trader Tom Long says if its trending down keep selling it until it ends... Same thing applys to currency strength meter sell or buy the strongest/weakest combination until you see price action or market structure to the contrary indicating its coming to an end, for me every time thats how strongly the last push up or down took out the previous push.

If you just clarify what it is you're after and provide the source file I will ask Ted for you...

Cheers Clive

Hey Clive, sorry for your losses of your dad.
Your strategy is quite simple but it's good. I prefer to open sell after pullback from B, because the B point is already create, but C maybe a little bit risky , because the C can continue again after retrace.
Nice and simple strategy. Keep it on. Live must go on.

Just wanted to quickly talk about trading the trend to the end. Thats what old timer Tom Long told me many years ago , sounds easy enough but how do we know when a trend is coming to an end????? Firstly lets talk about why its important to identify the early signs before the trend ends. As you know we're trying to trade the strongest trenders so need to know whether to take a CCI pullback or not before it fails on us and costs us precious pips. Just because a pair is in our TTindy does mean we have to trade it, as it could be coming to the end of its move.

Also we need to identify which CCI pullbacks to take and which to leave alone.

One of the ways I've been doing it recently is to gauge the strength of the each new push with the trend and whether or not the pullback is overlapping into the previous swing or not?

Look at the chart below and you're see what I'm talking about..



The first 4 arrows show moves down that clearly take out the proceeding low so the following CCI signal is good to take as long as it comes back up and uses the previous low as resistance. This is a sure sign of a strong trend when price doesn't overlap back into the previous wave. However look at the last push down its what I call a failed drive as it only just takes out the last low but more importantly it then pullsback and overlaps into the previous wave.

Now this overlapping doesn't necessarily mean the trends ended because it might just consolidate for a while before pushing lower but it should make you suspicious that the trend could be ending shortly so firstly trail down any open sell trades above the last LH and be very careful about taking anymore sell entries. If you do take more sell entries make sure they are well away from the last low so that you have time and space to get to BE before it hits the last low.

Lastly there is divergence present between the last two drive downs again a warning and for many traders the signal to close all open sell trades for maximium profit, but thats your choice as I've seen many divergence signals that just mean its a temporary pause before the trend continues on down.

By far the biggest warning to me is the failed drives and overlapping, just be on gaurd and prepared to close out all trades. If I get 2 or 3 failed drives then on the 3rd one I will close out for maximium profit. I see it this way, if I'm right I've banked maximium profit from my trend. If I'm wrong and the trend continues??? I've still banked the last move and I can always rejoin the trend on the next break and retest entry.

If in doubt, get out if you're not sure whats going on then bank. Close out all trades and watch to see what happens, the great thing about our 1 minute trading is you will always get another chance to jump back on if the trend continues if you came out before its finished , but you can NEVER EVER go back and get your profit if the trend ends!!!

Hope that helps...

A big part of my strategy nowadays is to identify reversals and enter on the first pullback in the new trend.

Heres an example of just such a reversal, first thing to note is it happens at a BRN eg 1.8200. Always good if you can identify a key level like this or a higher timeframe resistance/support level. Thats why I keep the daily high,low and close marked on my chart as favourite places for reversals.

Not going to bore you by going into too much detail as I've covered these a lot here but just for any new readers here you are, the perfect reversal setup.

 

1. Failed drive look for possible reversal setup
2. price crosses over the 100lwma
3. The 100lwma turns red
4. The last HL is taken out
5. Look for the first CCI sell signal which should be either a DT or better still a LH
6. Notice how price doesn't overlap last wave down and reacts off last HL which also coincides with a 25 level of 1.8175.
7. Place pending sell stop below first red HA candle and away you go.
   ​

Nothing complicated about it just needs the balls to pull the trigger when the CCI signals and the candles confirm it... Don't worry if you get it wrong as you will be risking a very small amount of pips against when you get it right, always always worth the risk....just to confirm that this went about 100 pips from red MA to green MA with at least another 3 or 4 add ons if you felt brave enough...

Hi StingrayEA

Thanks for your kind words appreciate it he was a very good man and I think of him everyday without fail.

Yes I think you are referring to price going past point B which of course is the breakout trade. The reason I prefer point C the pullback entry is 3 fold really. Assuming we have a strong trend in place, absolutely essential in my book. then both methods of entry work well but the pullback has the breakout beat on 3 accounts for me.

 

1. Pullbacks are selling at resistance and buying at support whereas breakouts are the opposite selling at support and buying at resistance. This is like buying at the top of a wave and selling at the bottom. A bit hit and miss as many times I get caught out right where I dont want to be and don't even get my 3 pips to go to BE. Just get left hanging at the top or bottom of the wave.
2. Lets assume both work and I've taken the pullback and you've taken the breakout on the same move. I will be typically about 10 pips in profit as you take your breakout entry.
3. Now this is the big one for me, my entry will be at break even and with point B between price and my stop so protecting me from being stopped out. You will have to sit through the inevitable break and retest that happens after 70% of breakouts. Either sit there with no BE stop and sweat on point B holding up or go to BE as you breakout and then watch as price comes back retests, takes out your stop then flys off up the page.
4. Just thought of a 4th reason as I typed 3 above. On the retest I would be looking to safely add another trade with my first risk off the table at BE, so would have 2 entries on, whereas you would be sweating on your first entry surviving the retest.
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Heres a chart from this morning illustrating what I'm saying about the 2 methods. I think you will agree not many breakouts get away do they?? The better entry is the break and retest or pullback entry. In fact I tried one on the chart its still in progress see how its left me at the top of the move??? But don't worry I think it will be fine as I'm with the strongest trender.Where even bad entries turn good, fingers crossed

Don't get me wrong I use breakout entries myself occasionally but my preference for all the above reasons is pullback entry. The only time I tend to use breakout is if a key level is holding up price like a 25 level or something then if I can see price continuously bashing away at a level then as the pressure builds I will place my pending stop below/above that level because very often it will break and fly getting me to BE in the same candle and the breakout is so strong it doesn't come back and retest. Actually they are great entries as my risk is off the table almost immediately.

Just thinking about it Stingray the breakout trade is fine to grab that first momentum rush as price breaks out but not so good if you want to trade the trend and hold your position, so guess thats the definitive answer. Breakout fine for grabbing each push but pullback the better choice for position trading in a trend.

Thanks for your comments much appreciated...

Just to finish off that last post about pullbacks or breakout entries, heres the end result of that entry, had to sweat through about 30 minutes but got away in the end, but I think you can see the break and retest of that 25 level worked well.

Of cause the real reason this worked out ok in the end is its a strongest trender...



"The Trend is your Friend right to the End"

This has already gone 260 odd pips today so past its adr so expecting this run to end anytime soon so I'm trailing up behind any red HA candles just in case it plummets like a stone. extremely likely to be honest as I would expect London traders to take advantage of this overbought state and start selling into it shortly so causing the overnight sellers to give then the liquidity they need for their massive orders...

Of course after a couple of hours driving it back down would fully expect them to then turn it back up mid morning as fundamentally based on last nights Gov Stepens speech, they would prefer to be buyers just not at these high levels.

Mind you I'm in danger here of planting some madcap idea in my head that will stop me following the price action and we all know what happens when I think I know whats going to happen better than the market!!!!

just got stopped out for 24 pips so a nice start to the day, now whats going to happen next????

Here's the 4 top trenders at the moment NZD weakness across the board thanks to Gov Stephens speech last night. Wonder what he said??? Who cares??? Even if you listened to every word and even if you got it exactly right , it still doesn't gaurantee you're make money, because what you don't know is ,do the big traders at the banks have the same grasp of the fundamentals as you do?? Or will they take a different point of view???

Who knows and like I say who cares??? All i know is wherever the moneys going will move the market so just sit back and watch the money pour onto the table through these 1 minute trends then place your bet and see what happens?

Not really that complicated is it? just follow the money.....



Of course thats easily said but not so easy to do is it? Just look at the atr's on all these top trenders , way over their normal daily ranges so surely its gotta reverse soon??? But then of course I've got old timer Tom Longs voice ringing in my ears "trade the trend until it ends" so what shall I do???

Make a cuppa tea I think....

This is very choppy right now whilst they sort themselves out. If I was a betting man I'd be thinking reversal time but I'm not so going to sit back for a bit and just watch what happens. Some big counter trend moves going on my TT's so not a time to be trading just let them fight it out and then jump on board with the victor...

Whilst sitting here I thought I'd share some of my thoughts about trading these 1 minute charts. One of my favourite entries nowadays is the break and retests of any 25 level but in particular BRN and 50 levels. In a strong trender they're as good as it gets and almost guaranteed entries to get to BE quickly if nothing else so risk off the table really quickly.

Heres a classic example this morning even in this volatile market...




Have a look at any strong trending pair and you will see this break and retest entry working time after time and with very small risk, just tuck your stop behind the 25 level and if you are wrong not much lost.. I'm now developing a really tight little entry technique using the tick box trends which goes something like this.

Watch the price break the 25 level, best if its acted as resistance on the way up, then as it comes down towards the 25 level drop a pending buy stop order 10 pips above it. Now open up the order box and watch the tick chart trending down to the level, it will be making LHLL's as it comes down to your level. As it does keep dragging your pending order down 2 pips above every LH. If you're right about the level there will be buy limits sitting there from the banks etc and all of a sudden you will get an upward surge that will take you straight into the trade and sometimes straight to BE in the same candle. Thats how I get so many entries to BE so quickly. Now if you're right price will just keep going straight up and never touch your stop, if wrong you will have a BE trade but of course another entry setup too...

Everything I do is about getting my risk off the table asap and getting to BE as quickly as I can. Getting in tightly like this is just one way of doing it. I personally don't understand why traders sit there and watch they're trades go into drawdown, bottom line for me is if price comes back past my entry I want out asap. One word of warning, make sure you're trading a strong trending pair so as to get a quick reaction. If you don't get one take off the pending order asap...

When using the tick box for entry what you're doing is trading the reversal of the tick charts trend,and just like you would with any other breakout entry place your pending stop order above the last LH for buying or last HL if selling.

If you decide to try this then obviously try it on demo first like all the things I suggest here until you are comfortable with it and making winning trades before going live....

Now here's my problem, lack of discipline and its cost me 13 pips.....

The trouble with me is I get bored if nothing sets up for a while and start searching for entries, like this one today on GBPUSD. First thing I want to say is I struggle to trade my system on eurusd and gbpusd. I know crazy as most scalpers love these two pairs as nice tight spreads, but I think thats the problem because evry one trades them they go one way then the other never really developing a good 1 minute trend because scalpers are either trading reversals or taking profits so causing irratic price action and not allowing them to trend very well. I know before anyone starts posting up example after example of 1 minute trends of course they do I just don't seem to catch any.

But that aside this was just a shite entry due to boredom....



Its proceeded by a failed drive, its not at any sensible level when I enter and I didn't even use a pending order below the red candle just jumped straight in with a market order... Unlike the entry before it that was proceeded by a good drive down AB leg, then pulled back to 1.6300 level and last LL before dropping down nicely

Well lesson learned hopefully wait for the right setups and maybe stay clear of GBPUSD????

And GBPNZD just keeps pumping its way up!!!!

Now thats more like it...

Nope stopped out for BE so how about this GBPCHF just waiting for a pullback to jump on board..

Hi Clive,

Great thread.

Downloaded your indicators to give M1 trading a try.

If possible, could you please upload a template?

Advance thanks,
Ivan

Hi

Already posted on post 1580 to 1582 all templates and indys I use, be careful as todays not working very well had 3 losers and a solitary winner today , nothing seems to be following through this morning I think due to an impromptu speech by Draghi this morning.

Maybe better luck this afternoon at NYO.

Gotta shoot today will post losers later and see what went wrong couple of duff ones but the others were ok just didn't work today....

Thanks for the quick reply.

Clive,

have you ever try your method on 5min chart please?

hi Knez

I haven't personally tried it as I'm a 1 minute man through and through But it will work fine just use same settings on 5 min timeframe, always trade with the strongest trending 5 min pairs. Maybe use 5 min and 15 min on TT indy and trade the 5min reversals back with the 15 min strongest trenders, although to be honest I'm inclined to just trade the 5 min strongest trenders, simple as that taking CCI signals as pullbacks.

try to take first couple of CCI signals after a MA slope change..

Wasn't my best today had 4 losers and just the solitary winner so had a minus day of about 35 pips so not so good, but thats the way it goes, but can I learn anything from my losers???

Well I've done my statuary review of all trades and to be honest one of them was acceptable and taken by my rules but the other three could of definitely been avoided if I'd stuck to my rules better. The overall thing was it wasn't a trending London Open it was a very rangy one with nothing following through on the 1 minute charts. The problem was I was searching hard for a trade to take so at the merest suggestion of a trade I was on it in a flash whereas in fact nothing really was setting up well.

Also because I'd had a couple of good days where my entries just couldn't go wrong I was just hitting the trades almost whenever I felt like it even after it had gone way past its optimum entry point. I was entering so late that I didn't even have time to get to BE before price reversed on me too quickly. Also a couple of times I didn't even move to BE when I had the chance as I wanted to hold to ensure the trades got going so suffered drawdown for far too long before getting out and lastly I held my trades even after the market structure failed I kept holding in the vain hope it would go my way and of course they didn't.

So the bottom line is we never know when these types of days appear so I need to assume evreyday is like this one rangy. Therefore keep my entries tight, get to BE asap, and if it goes against me get out asap keeping my losses no more than 10 pips, as my 20 pip stop is there for an emergency not for normal trading.

Also I need to only take CCI turns at key levels so my stops get behind a key level, not all over the place and very importantly need enough space between my entries and point B to allow me to get to BE safely.

And of course once I had a loser or two I started chasing those losses and thats the cardinal sin, never chase your losses, I need to remember in future that if I'm suffering losses then maybe its not the day for me and just leave it alone until a nice trendy day comes along. Talking about rangy and trendy days, thats another thing, if one session has had a good run the following one is often rangy or quiet and vice versa.

I noticed there was some great trends in the Asian session and some great trends in the US session but Londons was rangy...

OK that just about wraps it up so to summarise going forward...

 

1. Wait for the perfect setups only that look very clear.
2. Only take CCI signals at key levels after strong AB moves
3. Enter on break and retest of key levels only
4. Keep my entries tight, make sure there's room to get to BE and move to BE asap
5. Remember that I don't have to trade just because I'm sitting here, if nothing sets up properly, don't trade

Well that should do it, lets see if things improve tomorrow morning...

A nice start today with a solid AB move then a pullback to the BRN and we're off. Good place to start at 1.8600 level quite often a run sets up from these BRN.

Probably need to be a bit more selective on my entries and look for these break and retests of 25 levels more...