NZD/USD

Jawbone smackdown just now:

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2014/5881817.html

"Why the NZ exchange rate is unjustified and unsustainable"

Translation: Longs - get out of our way.

We are the BEARS!!!! the last 10 days was really bad for me, finally im getting something!!! Obviously this the RBNZ as our backup!!! They are covering us!!!

One thing to note though: the RBNZ data on prior declines (See Table 1 here: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and...4/5881818.html )
shows initial 4-quarter declines off of peak NZD exchange rates of about 10% and we are already down that much off the recent peak in just one summer.

Still, it sounds like they (RBNZ) are saying that they are coming gunning for the market.

break 0.80, nice.

I prefer long this pair under 0.80.

The other thing is that the USD is going to whip this around if its parabolic rally corrects.

What you think the number for justify and sustainable.? Will .4xxx-0.5xx make them(bank and rbnz) happy?

I see a little anomaly here, because the Eurusd is going down faster than the Nzdusd, with this last kick the Nzd is just reaching the levels of the eurusd... So i think there is a room for 0,78xx after that i see things blurr... Depends a lot on the commodity prices and the most important and eternal question of the world economy... When and how much the rates will be rise in usa????

NZD .7995

Finally we are getting some bear traction.
Bad data for the past couple of weeks and something had to give - the flush out has started.

reckon .7930 and then .7850

AUD looks soft as well and expect that to test .8770

Happy trading punters

0.7950, 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement of its June-2013 to July 2014 up-move becomes good support for NZDUSD,breaking which 0.7850 and a plunge below 0.7800 becomes imminent.

Sorry! This morning I logged out and slept as I am sick and sleeping at that moment and just waken up.

I really not sure now. draw channel bottom line from 2010may lowest point on monthly chart? I may sell JPY and CHF to cover this % loss.

NZDUSD drops sharply from nearly 0.8100 level and has now even dropped below a short-term descending trend-channel support.
Would wait for a bounce towards 0.7980-90 level, the break-down point, to initiate fresh short positions. The pair seems vulnerable to drop till 0.7900 level.

The PDF document conclusion said the reason:
"The nominal TWI is currently 4 percent below the historical high reached in July 2014. This decline in the TWI is small in relation to the 45 percent fall in global dairy prices since February 2014. We expect a significant further depreciation of the exchange rate as a result of the weakening in price of our dairy and log exports."

Please see the dates the FEB2014 to JULY2014. The trade balance for August is negatively ultra high but you seen the Sep2014 trade balance document said everything is positive. The price for milk powder is in contract already so no ways to change at this moment for the companies. Even the price is down but they earn more than before and expected. The NZD rate was rocket straight up at that moment and as you know it down to earth surface already even lower than the minimum on FEB2014 (about 0.8050).

Somethings had been done starting from 15JULY2014 (a great drop on NZD/USD). The document wrote "a significant downward adjustment over the coming six to nine months". Maybe we try to trust him the period. Can anyone tell me what is "cyclical economic variables" in the document?

The last day he mentioned in the document is 11JULY2014 (24JULY2014 is for review express only).

The document wrote "Since July, the Bank estimates the real effective exchange rate has depreciated by around 3 percent. Since 11 July 2014, the nominal cross rate against the USD has depreciated by around 7.5 percent."
We may try to calculate the right rate.

Interest rate? You mean, you try to calculate future interest rate? Or nzd/usd rate?

Let all of you calculate the NZD/USD!
As I am sick today, I am afraid that I am going to sleep now (I have my medicine already).