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Follow the monthly candle and be profitable

  • #141
  • Sep 23, 2014 1:55am Sep 23, 2014 1:55am
Quoting Hammertop
{quote} One option could be to leave a doji alone for that month.
A doji usually give an indication ... so why not in this case do a basic chart analysis to decide the direction to be taken ?
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #142
  • Sep 23, 2014 2:13am Sep 23, 2014 2:13am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} A doji usually give an indication ... so why not in this case do a basic chart analysis to decide the direction to be taken ?
I highly respect an old time trader and contributor like you FerruFx, but according to my limited knowledge a doji would show uncertainty. Let's say we are in a downtrend and a doji appears. That tells us the market is pausing and deciding where to go. Other elements could help, ok, like S/R, but still it's a sign of indecision. Keeping it simple, maybe not trading would be the best (or safest) option. Of course, a personal choice. Am I wrong?
  • #143
  • Sep 23, 2014 2:22am Sep 23, 2014 2:22am
Quoting Hammertop
{quote} I highly respect an old time trader and contributor like you FerruFx, but according to my limited knowledge a doji would show uncertainty. Let's say we are in a downtrend and a doji appears. That tells us the market is pausing and deciding where to go. Other elements could help, ok, like S/R, but still it's a sign of indecision. Keeping it simple, maybe not trading would be the best (or safest) option. Of course, a personal choice. Am I wrong?
My point was to do a chart analysis in this case ... not trading the doji itself. If the analysis confirms the doji uncertainty, then no trade.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #144
  • Sep 23, 2014 3:06am Sep 23, 2014 3:06am
Hi guys, When in doubt do not trade..............................
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #145
  • Sep 23, 2014 3:16am Sep 23, 2014 3:16am
Quoting billytt
Hi guys, When in doubt do not trade..............................
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #146
  • Sep 23, 2014 4:58am Sep 23, 2014 4:58am
Hi,
Another spreadsheet update, we now have 9 pairs back tested using Oanda broker time.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Follow Monthly Candle.xlsx   9 KB | 892 downloads


Would it be an idea to consider volatility of different pairs, ie the ATR values can be alot different, eg USDCAD to GBPJPY

But I will continue to test with the original rules.
  • #147
  • Sep 23, 2014 6:03am Sep 23, 2014 6:03am
Going to try this method. I just think that it is very important to adapt to different market volatility and different pair volatility. So that the risk is same on different pairs. To all respect to the thread initiator I am going to use 1:1 risk reward according to daily ATR. 150% for the stop and the take profit. And also the amount to break out will be 20% of the ATR. For the eurusd now it will be about 21 pips to break out and 100 pips sl and tp. Actually I have an indicator that calculates the risk and shows the atr for the pair. I suggest to put it on the daily time frame to use the data from. Of course you can set the risk in the settings.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 SaintSurfer.mq4   2 KB | 887 downloads
  • #148
  • Sep 23, 2014 6:09am Sep 23, 2014 6:09am
Just a thought, maybe it do not make sense to wait for the 20 pips break, because in most of the cases it will be triggered anyway and it could save for the sl or the tp would be closer , what you think guys ?
  • #149
  • Sep 23, 2014 6:27am Sep 23, 2014 6:27am
SSurfer, this method is based upon a whole lot of assumptions about market behaviour. You just add another one (or get rid of one), but it is difficult to quantify those going forward even if back testing can provide the record of historical performance.
  • #150
  • Sep 23, 2014 6:34am Sep 23, 2014 6:34am
Quoting 236dave
Hi, Another spreadsheet update, we now have 9 pairs back tested using Oanda broker time. {file} Would it be an idea to consider volatility of different pairs, ie the ATR values can be alot different, eg USDCAD to GBPJPY But I will continue to test with the original rules.
Thank you.

lol @ 60 pips on each pair after 7 months. No thanks.

I suspect many of these could have been 100tp though..
  • #151
  • Sep 23, 2014 6:57am Sep 23, 2014 6:57am
Guys, ask yourself one question...

what is the edge here??... monthly candle!!.. diversification!!

You'll need a lot more than that...

out of those 24 pairs, most are correlated, especially on monthly basis... so basically your following 6 pairs, 6 major currencies.

Just like most other systems or methods etc, it's in need of the IT factor, the, traders/market discretion...

sure it's simple, none time consuming. and looks appealing bcz you think a month worth of data will win over in the long run.. but that's far from market reality...
sure it may win one year but not the next... this is a 5yr minimum type of projection that you'll need to base it on... so most likely you find yourself at even position after half decade of trading...

and not to mention world crisis, politics, micro macro stuff etc, all coming to play with competing with the big money to topped it all off...


not trying to be negative... just straight forward reality..
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #152
  • Sep 23, 2014 6:59am Sep 23, 2014 6:59am
First, good morning everyone. I'll just speak my point of view, and if the topic continue in that line, I will not post most of my ideas.

If we keep looking for Doji, ATR, trend line or much any other thing, do not need exitir this topic, because all we were already victorious in these methods.

I've imagined this would happen, and again because they know 95% of people lose in forex. Patience, Discipline and Focus missing.

I put 02 ways to get the target of 10% per month.
1st of Tp 60 pips 100 pips STOP (Who wants to put 100 pips TP)
2nd Tp 10 pips 100 pips STOP (We can not lose more that 02 entries)

Just let us know if we can or not doing ... Before you even make are adding a lot of things in the system.

NOT NEED THAT NOTHING. ONLY 20 MINUTES OF WORK MONTHLY.

People can not accept a system without indicators, with a lot of things that do not lead anywhere. Nothing will make sure nothing or doji, ATR, Fibonacci, trend line etc. ... We will not win all the operations. We only need 10% per month ... 04 years goes quickly.

Life is beautiful, excuse me something ..
  • #153
  • Sep 23, 2014 9:26am Sep 23, 2014 9:26am
Robinho,
Thank you for sharing your strategy, it seems pretty promising.

i hope that you could kindly check whether is this how it actually works.

so, when the monthly candle closed at green, on the next monthly candle, we set a buy stop at 20pips, 60TP and 100SL
and when the monthly candle closed at red, on the next monthly candle, we set a sell stop at 20pips, 60TP and 100SL
  • #154
  • Sep 23, 2014 10:03am Sep 23, 2014 10:03am
Quoting Gregoryy
Robinho, Thank you for sharing your strategy, it seems pretty promising. i hope that you could kindly check whether is this how it actually works. so, when the monthly candle closed at green, on the next monthly candle, we set a buy stop at 20pips, 60TP and 100SL and when the monthly candle closed at red, on the next monthly candle, we set a sell stop at 20pips, 60TP and 100SL

OK
  • #155
  • Sep 24, 2014 12:13am Sep 24, 2014 12:13am
Quoting Robinho
First, good morning everyone. I'll just speak my point of view, and if the topic continue in that line, I will not post most of my ideas. If we keep looking for Doji, ATR, trend line or much any other thing, do not need exitir this topic, because all we were already victorious in these methods. I've imagined this would happen, and again because they know 95% of people lose in forex. Patience, Discipline and Focus missing. I put 02 ways to get the target of 10% per month. 1st of Tp 60 pips 100 pips STOP (Who wants to put 100 pips TP) 2nd Tp 10 pips...
Dear Robinho
do not worry about some followers here who wants mix up your great system with a bunch of indicators here and there.in reality all those indicators in my experiences just make traders to lose more and more pips.
of course some people do not understand it quite well that this kind of system is (SET IT AND FORGET IT).
please do continue your great journal as you plane.
regards
fred
  • #156
  • Sep 24, 2014 1:52am Sep 24, 2014 1:52am
Thanks Robinho for sharing your strategy, i'll try it.
  • #157
  • Sep 24, 2014 4:48am Sep 24, 2014 4:48am
Quoting fredgold3434
{quote} Dear Robinho do not worry about some followers here who wants mix up your great system with a bunch of indicators here and there.in reality all those indicators in my experiences just make traders to lose more and more pips. of course some people do not understand it quite well that this kind of system is (SET IT AND FORGET IT). please do continue your great journal as you plane. regards fred
Good morning, and thank you so much Fred.
  • #158
  • Sep 24, 2014 6:20am Sep 24, 2014 6:20am
yep go your way, you have followers

greets
  • #159
  • Sep 24, 2014 9:13am Sep 24, 2014 9:13am
Dear Robinho,
Thanks for this method. It will be good. I will follow this way. But how abt if we set by weekly TF with TP: 30 sl 100 ? Have you ever try this ?
  • #160
  • Sep 24, 2014 9:26am Sep 24, 2014 9:26am
sorry, and: How to control if win continuosly in 12 months??? Doyou think MM will do nasty thing for your orders ? Do you still keep this ratio once the acct is become big ?
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