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NZD/USD

  • #7,781
  • Sep 23, 2014 4:02pm Sep 23, 2014 4:02pm
Quoting DifferTrader
{quote} this is the reason i think so http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=505647
Thanks for the link - no way to anticipate such market moving releases I suppose.

Why doesn't NZ wait a couple hours for the Tokyo open to release data and news btw?

Seems to make for unnecessary volatility to insist on coming out with it the very first thing in their morning.
  • #7,782
  • Sep 23, 2014 5:59pm Sep 23, 2014 5:59pm
Ok, so no short covering on better than projected trade balance ... guess that means more down, oversold chart or not.

Getting dangerous for longs and shorts as well here ... USD index has screamed nonstop to 2013 highs since July, and is now at a "now what?" level.
  • #7,783
  • Sep 23, 2014 6:25pm Sep 23, 2014 6:25pm
Today, the NZD/USD may be affected by the Calendar:AUS CB Leading index m/m at 8am(HKT). Then NZD/USD will varies as US Jobless claims tomorrow but it changes maybe start from tomorrow noon (12pm or forwards : HKT).
  • #7,784
  • Sep 23, 2014 7:34pm Sep 23, 2014 7:34pm
Although I am not 100% sure (goto see 5min chart now), it forms a channel from NZ session. Does it mean buy signal?
  • #7,785
  • Sep 23, 2014 7:43pm Sep 23, 2014 7:43pm
Keep in mind that RBNZ has a "no comment" stance on FX interventions and regards NZD/USD level as being "unjustified and unsustainable".

If you were a central bank w/that opinion and you were actively intervening, with limited firepower, you would probably want to lean into NZD/USD when it was weak and try to cause maximum panic and technical damage, blowing out as many stop loss levels and torching as many bullish speculators as you could.
  • #7,786
  • Sep 23, 2014 8:06pm Sep 23, 2014 8:06pm
Quoting bartholemew
{quote} Thanks for the link - no way to anticipate such market moving releases I suppose. Why doesn't NZ wait a couple hours for the Tokyo open to release data and news btw? Seems to make for unnecessary volatility to insist on coming out with it the very first thing in their morning.
LOL .. If you don't like volatility the FX isn't the place for you.
  • #7,787
  • Sep 23, 2014 8:10pm Sep 23, 2014 8:10pm
Quoting bartholemew
Keep in mind that RBNZ has a "no comment" stance on FX interventions and regards NZD/USD level as being "unjustified and unsustainable". If you were a central bank w/that opinion and you were actively intervening, with limited firepower, you would probably want to lean into NZD/USD when it was weak and try to cause maximum panic and technical damage, blowing out as many stop loss levels and torching as many bullish speculators as you could.
Keep in mind that NZ PM was a FX Trader and realises that.
  • #7,788
  • Sep 23, 2014 8:11pm Sep 23, 2014 8:11pm
Quoting lasty
{quote} LOL .. If you don't like volatility the FX isn't the place for you.
LOL. Maybe you didn't actually read my post. I didn't say I didn't like volatility. I said that NZ econ releases during thin market hours prior to the Tokyo open create volatility for no particularly good reason.
  • #7,789
  • Sep 23, 2014 8:11pm Sep 23, 2014 8:11pm
Been killing it shorting all nzd pairs across the board. Hope this keeps up. Its free money lately, which doesn't happen that often.
  • #7,790
  • Sep 23, 2014 8:11pm Sep 23, 2014 8:11pm
Quoting lasty
{quote} Keep in mind that NZ PM was a FX Trader and realises that.
And not only that, but the market also realizes that he realizes that. And the market is bigger than him.
  • #7,791
  • Sep 23, 2014 8:16pm Sep 23, 2014 8:16pm
I have just read a news from below :
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/nz...231200644.html
  • #7,792
  • Sep 23, 2014 8:17pm Sep 23, 2014 8:17pm
Quoting bartholemew
{quote} And not only that, but the market also realizes that he realizes that. And the market is bigger than him.
Yup but he has interest rates up trying to curb housing demand - wants Kiwi lower = a difficult equation unless bad data arises..

Im a kiwi bear and have hedged against another high yielder to offset the carry costs..
  • #7,793
  • Sep 23, 2014 8:25pm Sep 23, 2014 8:25pm
Quoting lasty
{quote} Yup but he has interest rates up trying to curb housing demand - wants Kiwi lower = a difficult equation unless bad data arises..
Yes, a difficult equation, that the market is quite aware of. And markets like to test the resolve of major players ... tip over a big ship and scoop up profits.
  • #7,794
  • Sep 23, 2014 8:56pm Sep 23, 2014 8:56pm
Animal export rises now but milk powder price down up to nextyear March.
  • #7,795
  • Sep 24, 2014 3:34am Sep 24, 2014 3:34am
Today and Tomorrow are the only days for buying as I saw a repeat-signal (will be up to 0.8125) (just saw chart by Dano12 from Forums:AUS/USD : a magnfied version of NZD/USD) . Why 2 days? answer:before US jobless claims out. I check the history the first one can be more than the last value.
  • #7,796
  • Sep 24, 2014 3:56am Sep 24, 2014 3:56am
see the 15min-chart now for the min value of the channel.
  • #7,797
  • Sep 24, 2014 6:45pm Sep 24, 2014 6:45pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IMGP0634.JPG Size: 109 KB

The above chart : 2hr chart from 18sep-25sep 2014 (to now) seems to be repeating as started from green underlines (mirror-j).
  • #7,798
  • Sep 24, 2014 9:10pm Sep 24, 2014 9:10pm
Quoting roger44
{image} The above chart : 2hr chart from 18sep-25sep 2014 (to now) seems to be repeating as started from green underlines (mirror-j).

WTF? did you take that pic with your camera?
  • #7,799
  • Sep 24, 2014 9:11pm Sep 24, 2014 9:11pm
The new round is starting!!!
  • #7,800
  • Sep 24, 2014 9:29pm Sep 24, 2014 9:29pm
Hey RTM come to the party!!!! I suppose you are already there hahahaha!!!
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