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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #14,641
  • Sep 23, 2014 3:46am Sep 23, 2014 3:46am
Quoting IveGotQuads
closed Gbp/Usd trade for 22+ on that reversal... markets acting weird this morning with Usd/yen, Gbp/yen & Gbp/Usd moving in tandem SMH
Why weird? gj, daily bearish pin, followed by an inside bar. You trade the brake of the inside bar. There is no way to be more simpler, and you don't even need any indicator.
  • #14,642
  • Sep 23, 2014 3:53am Sep 23, 2014 3:53am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
{quote} Why weird? gj, daily bearish pin, followed by an inside bar. You trade the brake of the inside bar. There is no way to be more simpler, and you don't even need any indicator.
Hmm you talking about the daily pin and 'im talking about 15 min .. 1 hr charts totally different
  • #14,643
  • Sep 23, 2014 4:04am Sep 23, 2014 4:04am
The big problem is that folks are still trying to determine overall direction using lower TF charts - as in 1 hr etc. Heck, I called off that GU number earlier using a weekly chart. Really, if you had used a 1 hr tf on that run uphill last week, you would have been shorting it every 50 pips. And wondering why.
  • #14,644
  • Sep 23, 2014 4:05am Sep 23, 2014 4:05am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Hmm you talking about the daily pin and 'im talking about 15 min .. 1 hr charts totally different
Ah, I apologize! I missed that info. But wouldn't you find it useful to do analyse on W and D charts as well? Small time frames can be deceiving...
  • #14,645
  • Sep 23, 2014 4:11am Sep 23, 2014 4:11am
Quoting Mpt
The big problem is that folks are still trying to determine overall direction using lower TF charts - as in 1 hr etc. Heck, I called off that GU number earlier using a weekly chart. Really, if you had used a 1 hr tf on that run uphill last week, you would have been shorting it every 50 pips. And wondering why.
determining overall direction using lower TF is suicidal but using lower time frames to consider entries and exits + evaluating your risk is totally fine with me and its what I do.
  • #14,646
  • Sep 23, 2014 4:14am Sep 23, 2014 4:14am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} determining overall direction using lower TF is suicidal but using lower time frames to consider entries and exits + evaluating your risk is totally fine with me and its what I do.
Agreed, but maybe look towards the 4 hr charts more than the 1
  • #14,647
  • Sep 23, 2014 4:24am Sep 23, 2014 4:24am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Hmm you talking about the daily pin and 'im talking about 15 min .. 1 hr charts totally different
hi iveG,

Here is the strength index GBP and JPY
GBP in correction, and JPY down trend move always but also in correction side down

If you want the link just check the below link ;

http://www.4x-edge.com/HedgedForex/R...estrength.html


cheers
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  • #14,648
  • Sep 23, 2014 4:28am Sep 23, 2014 4:28am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
{quote} Ah, I apologize! I missed that info. But wouldn't you find it useful to do analyse on W and D charts as well? Small time frames can be deceiving...
Oh its nothing personal, heck the more active the thread is the better. Good trading is boring in general...finding like minds makes it interesting. And yes I look at dailies and weeklies as well as the trends.
  • #14,649
  • Edited 7:14pm Sep 23, 2014 6:49pm | Edited 7:14pm
It's tried to continue, but I reckon that 177.8/9 is last support before it falls back again in what now could be a steeply descending channel or wedge. Depends on whether 177.8 holds
  • #14,650
  • Sep 23, 2014 7:54pm Sep 23, 2014 7:54pm
Yepirrrr.... the 15M chart just went bearish...
  • #14,651
  • Sep 24, 2014 1:01am Sep 24, 2014 1:01am
Wow. This pair is sleeping big time right now. Even the Japan session shows a bit more life than this. Hopefully London wakes it up and we see a little PA happening.
  • #14,652
  • Sep 24, 2014 1:30am Sep 24, 2014 1:30am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
Wow. This pair is sleeping big time right now. Even the Japan session shows a bit more life than this. Hopefully London wakes it up and we see a little PA happening.
yeah Gbp/Usd moving again...took a sell trade there but anything can happen. Even tho the trend on the 4hrly is bearish, I personally don't feel too confident as this down move could be a stop run to the upside. I wonder what Gbp/yen has to offer today, I guess we wait.
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  • #14,653
  • Sep 24, 2014 2:44am Sep 24, 2014 2:44am
1. The last vaguely similar pair of weekly candles that I can find from recent times was back in March/ April 2013 . Look them up. Particularly, see what happened.

2. It can be argued that GJ has been in not one but two triangle formations (a smaller one, in red) and a larger one (in blue) . In the case of the smaller one, price repeatedly revisited the centre area of the triangle, then eventually fell to from a larger one. Based solely on that argument, price COULD be expected to revisit either triangle top or centre. In blue.

3. As I've got quads suggested, (paraphrasing and expanding) we may yet have another move back to the top, before a final move down into support to complete a big correction, then another large move up. But that move should already be under way by about now. Maybe it's just about to start?

4. It could be that GJ completed at 180.6 and will fall back into next support at 166.2, then up.

5. Variation of option 4, where after a bounce from 166.2, it fails to get past 178 and falls again into 163/160/159

FYI, part of the big deal about this area is that GJ spent X months effectively trying to break over 173.x, being where the monthly 200EMA sat. After a big rise, it now finds itself in the area of the monthly 200 SMA

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Apologies if I've bored anyone.
  • #14,654
  • Sep 24, 2014 3:51am Sep 24, 2014 3:51am
Quoting Mpt
1. The last vaguely similar pair of weekly candles that I can find from recent times was back in March/ April 2013 . Look them up. Particularly, see what happened. 2. It can be argued that GJ has been in not one but two triangle formations (a smaller one, in red) and a larger one (in blue) . In the case of the smaller one, price repeatedly revisited the centre area of the triangle, then eventually fell to from a larger one. Based solely on that argument, price COULD be expected to revisit either triangle top or centre. In blue. 3. As I've got quads...
Bore the hell out of me man. The more input I get the better. I don't have as many lines on my chart as you do, but I am seeing a drop in the future for this pair. IMO, there's just not enough fundamentals to make it stick where it is. Looking back at past rates, there was a strong bond between geppy's value, and BoE's interest rate. When the rate was high, so was the pair. As the rate dropped, so did the pair. Now I know Japan's looking to inflate the yen, but they're easing it in gradually, and Kuroda's talks as of late have been pretty flat.

Just going to keep watching this pair, and lay off the trades for now.
  • #14,655
  • Edited 4:25am Sep 24, 2014 4:13am | Edited 4:25am
Looks like option 3 is having a go. But there's no strength behind it.
  • #14,656
  • Sep 24, 2014 7:33am Sep 24, 2014 7:33am
haha, I'm very bad with Elliot theory, just like head and shoulders pattern I never learnt it. But really, I am having a bad week so far...might be taking Thursday off.
  • #14,657
  • Sep 24, 2014 1:43pm Sep 24, 2014 1:43pm
I think I already mentioned that I would like to see 175.5 Pivot zone to be tested. Being an EMA guy I would say market is waiting for 20 EMA to come closer on Daily so price could bounce from it. The recent trendline however proved strong for the time being, but could be deceiving. If Daily closes as an Inside bar then tomorrow should be interesting...
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  • #14,658
  • Sep 24, 2014 2:52pm Sep 24, 2014 2:52pm
Potential setup forming at 4h .
I see two scenarios, explanations on the charts.
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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #14,659
  • Edited 9:07pm Sep 24, 2014 6:54pm | Edited 9:07pm
Even if it looks to have broken out and gets past 178.7, be careful at about 179.1 because that could possibly send it straight back down again.


Of course that even assumes it can get over 178.5/6 in the next few hours.
  • #14,660
  • Sep 24, 2014 10:55pm Sep 24, 2014 10:55pm
About that 15M chart....it has a buy right now, 12 midnight in New York time....
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