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Follow the monthly candle and be profitable

  • #121
  • Sep 22, 2014 10:39am Sep 22, 2014 10:39am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi, sorry I did not reply sooner. I am currently trading a method trading only e/j and nothing else and originally I was looking for 10 pips. 10 pips on e/j daily being broken is currently 79% strike rate, the lowest being 75% and highest 84%, I have tested it over 25 years and also in blocks of 5 years. My exact method will not be disclosed but any pro city trader will know what I am doing. Robs monthly method is good, I honestly think the weekly is even better but I have no data and daily is the one for me. With a bit of extra information...
Thank you Billy.
  • #122
  • Sep 22, 2014 10:53am Sep 22, 2014 10:53am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} The March monthly candle was red, so April would be a sale.
On my chart the March monthly candle was up (blue).
I think the reason for the discrepancy, was there was a weekend gap between the end of Feb and beginning of March.
ie, the market gapped down over the weekend, but March ended higher than its open price.
Broker times might have something to do with it aswell, I'm using Oanda.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh1.png Size: 45 KB
  • #123
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:11am Sep 22, 2014 11:11am
Quoting 236dave
{quote} On my chart the March monthly candle was up (blue). I think the reason for the discrepancy, was there was a weekend gap between the end of Feb and beginning of March. ie, the market gapped down over the weekend, but March ended higher than its open price. Broker times might have something to do with it aswell, I'm using Oanda. {image}


I think I may have used 2013 data? Seems to be the only one that is incorrect.

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 132 KB
  • #124
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:33am Sep 22, 2014 11:33am
Updated my spreadsheet with a couple more pairs:
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Follow Monthly Candle.xlsx   9 KB | 699 downloads
  • #125
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:56am Sep 22, 2014 11:56am
Quoting 236dave
Updated my spreadsheet with a couple more pairs: {file}
Do not know how you are doing these spreadsheets ... I think it will be a big job, but look at post 01 that AUDUSD +60 pips winner was ... the broker is the IC markets, should give any difference ... just a note ... Congratulations patience.
  • #126
  • Sep 22, 2014 12:48pm Sep 22, 2014 12:48pm
Quoting Robinho
{quote} Do not know how you are doing these spreadsheets ... I think it will be a big job, but look at post 01 that AUDUSD +60 pips winner was ... the broker is the IC markets, should give any difference ... just a note ... Congratulations patience.
Since you mention ICMarkets, I am testing on that same broker and have to agree with the other guys for a loss. August was an up candle so we buy in September. As you see from the picture, the open was 0.93256 so the buy was 0.93456 which didn't make the TP by a few pips. How come you have a buy at 0.93344 on ICMArkets?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-09-22_21-41-54.jpg Size: 52 KB
  • #127
  • Sep 22, 2014 12:51pm Sep 22, 2014 12:51pm
I would like to see the results with 10 pips TP.
  • #128
  • Sep 22, 2014 12:53pm Sep 22, 2014 12:53pm
Quoting Hammertop
{quote} Since you mention ICMarkets, I am testing on that same broker and have to agree with the other guys for a loss. August was an up candle so we buy in September. As you see from the picture, the open was 0.93256 so the buy was 0.93456 which didn't make the TP by a few pips. How come you have a buy at 0.93344 on ICMArkets? {image}


Remember? Sorry my entries were on 02/09 because I had committed on 01/09. Pardon.
  • #129
  • Sep 22, 2014 1:12pm Sep 22, 2014 1:12pm
Quoting Robinho
{quote} Remember? Sorry my entries were on 02/09 because I had committed on 01/09. Pardon.
Sorry I totally forgot. You're forgiven then
  • #130
  • Sep 22, 2014 1:31pm Sep 22, 2014 1:31pm
Quoting Robinho
I would like to see the results with 10 pips TP.
Then make a spreadsheet.
  • #131
  • Sep 22, 2014 1:48pm Sep 22, 2014 1:48pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Then make a spreadsheet.
statistically placing 10 pips TP ... give me the concreteness of 10% monthly ... will be very good.
  • #132
  • Sep 22, 2014 2:14pm Sep 22, 2014 2:14pm
Quoting Robinho
{quote} Do not know how you are doing these spreadsheets ... I think it will be a big job, but look at post 01 that AUDUSD +60 pips winner was ... the broker is the IC markets, should give any difference ... just a note ... Congratulations patience.
Hi Rob,
I am using Oanda which must have a different GMT Offset to explain the difference.
I would expect results would even out over time.
See my AUDUSD chart below:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1.png Size: 39 KB


Dave
  • #133
  • Sep 22, 2014 4:26pm Sep 22, 2014 4:26pm
We must focus on the following:

GET 10% PER MONTH FOR THE PERIOD OF 04 YEARS.

1K = 100K IN 04 YEARS.

1K STARTING WITH, WE WORK WITH LOT OF 0.02. NEED 500 PIPS PER MONTH.

27 STARTERS, BEING: 60 PIPS PIPS FOR TP AND 100 OF STOP
WIN 20 = 1200 PIPS
LOSE 07 = 700 PIPS

BALANCE = 500 PIPS X 0.02 = + - 100 DOLLARS = 10%

DO NOT KNOW IF ANY MONTH THAT HAD LOST 07 TIMES

WE MUST ALSO KNOW THAT MONTH HAS SOME COUPLES, ORDERS NO ARMS.

REPEAT THAT WORK FOR 04 YEARS, ALL TOGETHER.

EVERY LOT 500 DOLLARS RAISE IN 0.01

PATIENCE, DISCIPLINE and FOCUS

ONLY 20 MINUTES OF WORK PER MONTH
  • #134
  • Sep 22, 2014 4:30pm Sep 22, 2014 4:30pm
Hi Rob, hope you are good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #135
  • Sep 22, 2014 5:56pm Sep 22, 2014 5:56pm
Robinho, what stop loss would you apply if we were to go with TP of 10 pips?
  • #136
  • Edited 7:46pm Sep 22, 2014 6:07pm | Edited 7:46pm
Quoting EnoFX
Robinho, what stop loss would you apply if we were to go with TP of 10 pips?

The Forex Market is a short blanket, or covering the head, feet or copper ... would that work with the same 100 pips STOP ... do not like that idea ... but can begin to compensate for the number of victories over time ... I think we would win many months in a row ... can not lose more than 02 entries per month ... see:

27 entries:
25 wins = 250 pips
02 losses = 200 pips
profit = 50 pips

Can not lose more than 02 entries, looking back, I see many victories, but the market is the market.



27 winning entries 27x10x = .20 = $ 540/54%

Winning entries 26 = 26x 10x .20 = $ 520
Defeat 01x100x0,20 = 01 = $ 200
BALANCE = $ 320/32%

Winning entries 25 = 25x 10x .20 = $ 500
Defeats 02x100x0,20 = 02 = $ 400
BALANCE = $ 100/10%

Within this idea, we have an account with 1k batch work with 0.20 ... and we can not lose more than 02 entries.

50 pips = $ 100 x 0.20 = 10%

How many months would win the 27 entries?
  • #137
  • Sep 22, 2014 6:54pm Sep 22, 2014 6:54pm
At this moment USA and allies attacking Syria.
  • #138
  • Sep 22, 2014 8:50pm Sep 22, 2014 8:50pm
I Robinho great post here. Can i ask you, how we trade if the previous candle is a doji? thanks in advance.
  • #139
  • Sep 22, 2014 9:04pm Sep 22, 2014 9:04pm
Quoting dsncorp
I Robinho great post here. Can i ask you, how we trade if the previous candle is a doji? thanks in advance.
Can not go by color alone when Doji ... this is basic ... 01/05/2013 See the EURJPY pair.Pay attention, and nothing more.
  • #140
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:44pm Sep 22, 2014 11:44pm
Quoting Robinho
{quote} Can not go by color alone when Doji ... this is basic ... 01/05/2013 See the EURJPY pair.Pay attention, and nothing more.
One option could be to leave a doji alone for that month.
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