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The similarity system

  • #8,941
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:24am Sep 22, 2014 11:24am
Quoting FX-Jay
Current trade ideas to consider: Short Eur/Gbp, target 15 pips from current levels Long Gbp/Huf targeting 396.00 I am also experimenting with stocks, I am not sure how well this will work (I use CFDs on shares provided by my broker) Short Boeing targeting September's Low Short UPS targeting last week's Low Short UTX targeting today's Low All trades are valid till Friday
Did you trade the following FX-Jay? Because it seems that UTX did hit its target and UPS is on its way. BA is the only one which is trading away from the target atm...

Did you have any given time in which they needed to reach the target?
  • #8,942
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:27am Sep 22, 2014 11:27am
Loving it guys, Loving it!

FX-Jay, boom-shakalaka! Impressive trades! Was gonna venture some trades with the USDCHF but I'm so unfamiliar with it, I decided not to... but I may just have a look at your entries tonight. I love it when you / others can apply all this stuff to other pairs.

I actually scored +20 pips this morning on EURAUD, just eyeballing TZ so I know it works.

EU's been a biatch today, though. Mr Dragon's fault.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,943
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:31am Sep 22, 2014 11:31am
Quoting hepsibah
ok, this is a classic bullish signal for me on H1 (as of 7min ago). A previous TZ was taken out and price retraced to above the previous TZ (doesn't have to close above). At some point, a top TZ needs to be created above the red line and, given the adjacent bar has a HH, there is plenty of room for even a TZ with h=1 to form. Doesn't mean it can't make a LL in the meantime but, unless a lower TZ is taken out, I'm up, up, up. {image}
Hey Hep!
Indeed it does have all the markings of bullishness... just not that final nail in the coffin. Not sure of the sequencing, but the obvious ones are 2926 and 2866 assuming a higher value of h. On h=1, then add 2874.
Given all that, I still want a Long setup... via some kind of retrace that respects the base TZ.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,944
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:33am Sep 22, 2014 11:33am
Quoting GekkoJr92
{quote} Did you trade the following FX-Jay? Because it seems that UTX did hit its target and UPS is on its way. BA is the only one which is trading away from the target atm... Did you have any given time in which they needed to reach the target?
Concerning the time in which they needed to reach the target ... did you mean THAT with ''The trades are valid till Friday'' or just that they should be taken before Friday?

And vlady1974 I can def. agree to the fact that EU's behaving like a biatch today ... shame on you Draghi.
  • #8,945
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:36am Sep 22, 2014 11:36am
Quoting GekkoJr92
{quote} Did you trade the following FX-Jay? Because it seems that UTX did hit its target and UPS is on its way. BA is the only one which is trading away from the target atm... Did you have any given time in which they needed to reach the target?
Yes I did, I wanted to test stocks.
My orders on UTX, UPX, and BA are still open, I was scalping along the way as the price was going against me.

EDIT: Just realized UTX did reach target so I'm left with UPX & BA

As you mentioned, the prices are currently diving down to their targets.
The problem with stocks is that they are only open for the American session, and that's just two 4H bars every 24 hours, so the timing for those signals is usualy for 2 or 3 weeks using H4 TF. This is not very practical to be honest, so these were the 1st and last stock signals I will trade.

Once I decide to start working with lower TFs, I will consider them again.
If you decided to trade those signals, I still to see them reaching their targets during the week or before next week's end.

Best,
Jay
  • #8,946
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:36am Sep 22, 2014 11:36am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hey Hep! Indeed it does have all the markings of bullishness... just not that final nail in the coffin. Not sure of the sequencing, but the obvious ones are 2926 and 2866 assuming a higher value of h. On h=1, then add 2874. Given all that, I still want a Long setup... via some kind of retrace that respects the base TZ.

But the given is that it needs to be above 1.28338
  • #8,947
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:37am Sep 22, 2014 11:37am
Quoting vlady1974
Was gonna venture some trades with the USDCHF but I'm so unfamiliar with it, I decided not to... but I may just have a look at your entries tonight. I love it when you / others can apply all this stuff to other pairs.
USDCHF is mirror image of EURUSD

selling EU is same as buying UC

only diff is that UC spread is usually higher

if you're planning to buy one whilst selling the other, it makes more financial sense to double your investment in EU
He has the right to criticize who has the heart to help. Abraham Lincoln
  • #8,948
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:49am Sep 22, 2014 11:49am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Yes I did, I wanted to test stocks. My orders on UTX, UPX, and BA are still open, I was scalping along the way as the price was going against me. EDIT: Just realized UTX did reach target so I'm left with UPX & BA As you mentioned, the prices are currently diving down to their targets. The problem with stocks is that they are only open for the American session, and that's just two 4H bars every 24 hours, so the timing for those signals is usualy for 2 or 3 weeks using H4 TF. This is not very practical to be honest, so these were the 1st...
Thanks for the answer FX-Jay
Exactly. UTX did reach target. And UPS is on its way so we just need BA to make a reverse...

Just curious since I've been into the stock market longer than the FX-mkt. But I clearly see the disadvantage about the limitations regarding the trading time... Was the scalping some kind of an initially intended hedge position? - anyway awesome ...

BA and UTX will have my interest in this week and eventually next week too.
  • #8,949
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:50am Sep 22, 2014 11:50am
Quoting Jim4x
{quote} USDCHF is mirror image of EURUSD selling EU is same as buying UC only diff is that UC spread is usually higher if you're planning to buy one whilst selling the other, it makes more financial sense to double your investment in EU
Oh, I get that... but then it still has its own idiosyncrasies, in the same way that EJ for example has more volatile moves wicks or that EA has larger moves when it gets momentum, etc. Comparatively, whilst not the best comparison because of YEN, I've traded USDJPY before as a reasonable inverse of EURUSD. I'll take view of it so I can get familiar with the pair.... need to ask the lady out on a date first and get to know her, you know what I mean? LOL
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,950
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:51am Sep 22, 2014 11:51am
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} But the given is that it needs to be above 1.28338
Here we go. And now for one more bounce at 30 and I'm gonna be looking.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,951
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:54am Sep 22, 2014 11:54am
whoo hoo I have a yellow next to my name.

Anyone selling now. I sold at 1.2870
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #8,952
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:57am Sep 22, 2014 11:57am
Quoting GekkoJr92
{quote} Thanks for the answer FX-Jay Exactly. UTX did reach target. And UPS is on its way so we just need BA to make a reverse... Just curious since I've been into the stock market longer than the FX-mkt. But I clearly see the disadvantage about the limitations regarding the trading time... Was the scalping some kind of an initially intended hedge position? - anyway awesome ... BA and UTX will have my interest in this week and eventually next week too.
I was actually scalping to the short side (just as I am doing with USDCHF while waiting for it to go down), no hedging whatsoever.
I believe the problem with BA is the news that came up few days ago and the deal they got with NASA, so be cautious with shorting that stock. If you don't see any continued weakness into the coming few days, it's better to leave it alone.

Jay
  • #8,953
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:58am Sep 22, 2014 11:58am
Quoting Baillie
{quote} Thanks Vlady, Just not up on that acronym, some are Sm@$$ here.
you didnt even tried googling it and wanted it fkin ready! ignored pal. learn to work for your stuff
Don't use both feet to test the depth of the river
  • #8,954
  • Sep 22, 2014 12:01pm Sep 22, 2014 12:01pm
I see some are applying this to stocks..

Gaps on stocks have very similar properties to TZs. Infact, I'd hazard a small guess that as the FX market is 24hr.. TZs are most likely gaps in the currency, where a value is skipped past.. to be retested for volume at a later date.. ala stocks.
  • #8,955
  • Sep 22, 2014 12:04pm Sep 22, 2014 12:04pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Here we go. And now for one more bounce at 30 and I'm gonna be looking.

window gone and achieved on that one tho I expect we are going higher as it has just returned above another previously taken out bottom TZ. The real magic of these is that we know:

a) a new TZ needs to be formed above below a previously taken out one
b) if the bar that returns above/below the taken out TZ is not a HH/LL then price has to go higher/lower than that bar (and usually more but can't be guaranteed).

These happen all the time on all timeframes but don't always give sufficient room for a profit.

Let me finish with a question, would you rather anticipate returning to a newly formed transient top/bottom or to a previously known RZ? I won't pretend they don't incur drawdaon but at least you know price has been there before relatively recently.
  • #8,956
  • Sep 22, 2014 12:10pm Sep 22, 2014 12:10pm
Quoting hepsibah
Let me finish with a question, would you rather anticipate returning to a newly formed transient top/bottom or to a previously known RZ? I won't pretend they don't incur drawdaon but at least you know price has been there before relatively recently.
That's a really good question. For now I would like to say it depends. However, based on my trading style I would prefer to go back to a previously known RZ. I don't have a scientific reason for this other than an analogy that I believe moves build their momentum from "the fear of missing out". I'll give this further thought.... it's an excellent question.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,957
  • Sep 22, 2014 12:10pm Sep 22, 2014 12:10pm
in my humble opinion if the EU turns, will do at 2732, if it turns at all, otherwise will continue happy to south. . . but who am I to say?
Humble & Kalcker CLO2 = Covid killer
  • #8,958
  • Sep 22, 2014 12:20pm Sep 22, 2014 12:20pm
M5 needs a HH above 1.28283
  • #8,959
  • Sep 22, 2014 12:33pm Sep 22, 2014 12:33pm
Quoting hepsibah
M5 needs a HH above 1.28283



on holiday in Seville - off to spend the profit on muchos tapas and vino
  • #8,960
  • Sep 22, 2014 12:39pm Sep 22, 2014 12:39pm
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} on holiday in Seville - off to spend the profit on muchos tapas and vino
woo hoo!!
Don't use both feet to test the depth of the river
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